Indiana
The RNC put up $100,000 in ads in the state today. Typically, (my own personal rule) is that when another candidate is polling within 5 points consistently, you put money into that state. Given the advertising being put there by Obama right now uncontested, he may be overpolling a tad. So...
Sam Spade 9/26 Call: McCain +5
Make that McCain +2. McCain attacked ethanol subsidies in the debate, hard. I agree with him 100% on this issue, but that won't stop the continuing farmer revolt that is giving Obama a fighting chance here.