Impact of a Clinton victory in 2016

[Skill and Chance]

If Jeb Bush - the favorite of the GOP establishment and neoconservative intelligentsia - loses to Hillary Clinton in 2016 in a similar fashion as Mitt Romney lost to Obama in 2012 (that is, not only does he perform abysmally among minorities and young voters, but he also fails to win-over traditionally Republican-leaning suburban White voters in places like Loudoun County, VA or Jefferson County, CO) then it is strongly indicative of the fact that the Republican brand, thanks to presence of the ultraconservative Tea Party, has been permanently damaged among educated, cosmopolitan White voters.  In fact, this is the true story of the realignment that Obama ushered-in in 2008 - not that he got minorities and young people to turnout in record numbers (although that certainly did pad his margin), but that professionally-educated, White voters in placed like Montgomery County, MD are no longer Republicans like they were during the Nixonian 1970s or even the Clintonian 1990s. 

What happens when the GOP establishment - the Wall Street financiers and Northern Virginian defense contracting giants - realize that they are now in-cahoots with a party that simply cannot win a national election because of how much its conservative wing has damaged its standing among the White, wealthy suburban class?  Easy: become Democrats (which to same extent has already happened).

So, the neoliberal, "anti-progressive" wing of the Democratic Party will continue to grow in influence as the old GOP financiers flock to Hillary Clinton and her policies; whereas, the Republicans will be isolated to electoral victories in the South and Mountain West as the Tea Party gains ascendancy over a thinning GOP establishment.


TL;DR - Democrats become the GOP establishment and the GOP becomes a South-only party that's locked-out of the White House for another generation or two.   

 

   

I basically agree, but that last statement is strong.  The other component of this to keep in mind is that the odds of a rural populist candidate breaking through the GOP primary only keep going up.  Imagine what would happen in Jefferson/Fairfax/Berks if the Republican nominee is Huckabee.

[Skill and Chance]

I think that two factors are very important: Who is the Republican nominee? Is it a moderate from the party estabishment like Jeb or Christie or is it a Tea-Party guy like Cruz or Rubio. And second, will Republicans continue to control the congress

The truth is the popular vote difference between any of the GOP candidates wont be more than a couple of percentage points. The idea that Bush would win but Cruz would lose by 20 is absurd.

I disagree.  With Generic D instead of McGovern, 1972 should have been a close 2012 style reelection for Nixon in a middling economy.  With Generic (pro-civil rights act) R instead of Goldwater, LBJ would probably have had a standard 10-15% good economy incumbent win. 

[Skill and Chance]

I expect the Democrats to catch on to the whole "midterm turnout" thing sooner or later.

This. 2018 will be a real "turnout battle" again, I doubt that it is a safe bet that Democratic turnout will be low. Hillary's strategists will do everything they can to drive up minority turnout in key states such as FL, VA, OH, PA and WI.

Well, considering that Hillary's core coalition is more likely to turn out consistently and it's pretty much either Hillary or a Republican in the White House, I have to agree it won't be as bad as 2010/14 for Democrats.  We seem due for a 1998 situation, particularly if there is divided government going in.

[Skill and Chance]

I expect the Democrats to catch on to the whole "midterm turnout" thing sooner or later.

This. 2018 will be a real "turnout battle" again, I doubt that it is a safe bet that Democratic turnout will be low. Hillary's strategists will do everything they can to drive up minority turnout in key states such as FL, VA, OH, PA and WI.

Well, considering that Hillary's core coalition is more likely to turn out consistently and it's pretty much either Hillary or a Republican in the White House, I have to agree it won't be as bad as 2010/14 for Democrats.  We seem due for a 1998 situation, particularly if there is divided government going in.

A 1998 situation is far more likely for an incumbent Republican president, since their base will always vote. Even if Republicans won the presidency in 2016, I'm not convinced 2018 would be a good Dem year.

Explain 2006?  Last gasp of the old Dem coalition?