2008- 2020 loyalty map

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a continuation of my COI project from another thread where I basically draw a bunch of districts 100k in size based around communities of interest.

Below is a map showing loyalty from 2008 Pres to 2020 Pres:



Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/076d9ae1-0b5a-4d04-83b9-16caf4af70be

According to my calculations, in total there were 204 Obama-Trump seats and 199 McCain-Biden seats. There were 2 really close calls where 2008 precincts didn't quite align and I had to make an educated guess on how the district truly voted in 2008.

Some things I think people will find very surprising:

1. Obama did really well in certain suburbs in 2008, and nearly matched Biden in some high-education suburbs in places like Denver, Seatlle, the Bay Area, and Portland. On the other hand, his performance in educated suburbs in Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston was notably worse than Biden. Wonder what accounts for this discrepancy. There were also some suburbs Obama had already "filled out" by 2008, such as NOVA where only one remaining McCain COI flipped to Biden.

2. In states that swung hard right from 2008-2020 Pres like Kentucky and Tennessee, there were no Obama-Trump seats but multiple McCain Biden seats. I think this is because by 2008, rurals had already re-aligned to be R leaning in these states, so Trump's increased gains didn't actually flip anything. Meanwhile, the only parts of these states shifting left - the suburbs, are the only really competative areas of those states.

3. The black belt shifting right is overrated. There are examples of "black-belt" districts flipping both Obama-Trump and McCain-Biden. Even if blacks have shifted a bit right since 2008, the black belt is generally getting blacker. Not to say it can't shift right in the future, but on net Biden's performance was pretty similar to Obama 2008.

4. Biden flipped 3 COIs in Tampa, a COI in South Brooklyn (Dyker Heights area), a COI outside Akron, a COI in rural Central Valley, and a COI based around Yakima in WA

5. Trump flipped 2 COIs in suburban Sacramento, 2 COIs in suburban Portland, a suburban COI in Oakland County MI, several COIs in greater Seattle, a COI in suburban Reno, and a COI in suburban Kansas City (the suburb of Independence)


I think this generally shows how political trends are not absolute. I think we have a recency bias that the shifts we see in the last election are bound to repeat again, which is why the lists above suprised me. Feel like this project also shows how political geography has improved for both sides in different places (GOP improving their political geography in MI and WI, Dems improving their political geogrpahy in TX, GA, and much of the southeast.

[Epaminondas]

Great work, North Dakota and Wisconsin are pretty stunning.

Almost can't see any of the 200 Biden flips.

[Sol]

Obama absolutely slam-dunking in the Upper Midwest isn't too much of a surprise, but it's interesting how much better Republicans did in the northern Lower Peninsula than in similar areas. Do we know why?

[Skill and Chance]

Underscores that things haven't really changed that much IMO.  2016 was a meaningful change, but it didn't really continue as much as expected.  Need a Republican to sweep much of the North and/or a Democrat to flip several more Southern states to really shake things up.

[ottermax]

It is really cool to see specific areas where demographic changes have caused shifts. Many places where an increased number of Hispanic voters has really helped Democrats despite the overall shift towards the right in the demographic.

Also really emphasizes that the patterns we are seeing in Florida match the Midwest a lot better than the South.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It is really cool to see specific areas where demographic changes have caused shifts. Many places where an increased number of Hispanic voters has really helped Democrats despite the overall shift towards the right in the demographic.

Also really emphasizes that the patterns we are seeing in Florida match the Midwest a lot better than the South.

To add on, I think in a lot of these heavily Hispanic Communities, Obama 2012 did better than Obama 2008, and Clinton did better than Obama 2012, so Biden's collapse of support was really just back to around Obama 2008 levels.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Great work, North Dakota and Wisconsin are pretty stunning.

Almost can't see any of the 200 Biden flips.

There are actually 2 "rural" Biden flips in Alaska, but you can't see Alaska on the photo I posted. Still, it's insane in the contiguous 48, there are literally no truly rural districts that flipped McCain-Biden; not even something in the northeast or a ski town or something.

There def are examples of a few "smaller city" COIs flipping to Biden, such as the one based around Florence, SC or Salisbury, MD.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Obama absolutely slam-dunking in the Upper Midwest isn't too much of a surprise, but it's interesting how much better Republicans did in the northern Lower Peninsula than in similar areas. Do we know why?

Honestly in the northern midwestern states (MN, WI, MI, IA), there were a ton of very close calls like 50-48 in either direction.

I think the difference can probably be attributed to industry, religion, and ethnicity. The northern peninsula is a bit less Scandinavian ancestry than say driftless WI or most of MN which may have made the difference.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's are maps comparing seat share from 2008 to 2020. Note in 2008, Fl and ND's delegations were exactly tied, and in 2020, Trump won a very narrow majority in both PA and AZ.

[It’s so Joever]

Here's are maps comparing seat share from 2008 to 2020. Note in 2008, Fl and ND's delegations were exactly tied, and in 2020, Trump won a very narrow majority in both PA and AZ.

Man TX political geography sucks for the gop.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's are maps comparing seat share from 2008 to 2020. Note in 2008, Fl and ND's delegations were exactly tied, and in 2020, Trump won a very narrow majority in both PA and AZ.

Man TX political geography sucks for the gop.

And it's rapidly getting worse, since the areas swinging hard left are disproportionately swingy or light red suburbs, while both deep red rurals and deep blue inner-city areas have been more stagnant or even right shifting.

Only way I see GOP can claw back a bit at their geography troubles is if they start outright flipping RGV seats, particularly in Hidalgo and Cameron counties. Hidalgo County specifically is decently populated and has very homogenous political geography, so if the GOP flips the County they are likely flipping a lot of seats with it.

Austin becoming too much of a Dem vote sink could also help.