SurveyUSA: Biden+10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump doesn't even bother to keep his mask on, he rips off his mask, he is done, being 12, points behind in PA and Toomey retiring

[Calthrina950]

This poll falls in line with what I consider to be the most plausible result for the election at this stage. But at any rate, it's clear at this point that Trump didn't receive a "sympathy bump" or anything like it, and indeed, that his handling of his own case has worsened his electoral standing. Moreover, it's also clear that most voters believe Biden won the debate and have dinged Trump heavily for his poor performance.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

[Pollster]

Some other notable findings here:

-Trump's hospitalization appears to have increased enthusiasm to vote for him (from 70% to 84% enthusiastic among his voters). Given the collapse in his support that the same poll shows from pre-hospitalization to hospitalization, I'd surmise that we're seeing his least enthusiastic supporters abandon him, leaving only the most enthusiastic remaining.

-Biden also appears to have gotten a bump in enthusiasm, though much smaller (75% to 80% enthusiastic).

-Only 5% of Trump voters say they would take to the streets if Trump loses, and only 2% say they would do so armed and/or prepared for violence. A plurality say they will accept the outcome and wish Trump well.

-More Biden voters than Trump voters say they will take to the streets if Biden loses (10%), and a similar 2% say they would do so armed and/or prepared for violence. A plurality of Biden voters say they would doubt the outcome but keep their disappointment to themselves.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyUSA is a good pollster but for some reason their crosstabs always seem wonky.

[Buzz]

This election is over.

[new_patomic]

Of likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA after Trump and Biden debated 09/29/2020 but before Trump had revealed his COVID diagnosis, Biden led Trump by 8 points, 51% to 43%. In the tiny window of time between when Trump acknowledged his illness but before he was hospitalized, Trump closed to within 4 points, Biden 50%, Trump 46. In interviews completed after Trump had been helicoptered to Bethesda, Biden appears to have consolidated support, leading by 16 points among likely voters interviewed most recently, 56% to 40%.

So

Post-Debate, Pre-Covid: Biden +8
Post-Covid, Pre-Hospital, Biden +4
Post-Hospital: Biden +16

Fascinating.

It actually does substantiate the idea that Trump could have gotten a small, if temporary, bump in support from being diagnosed. But then that was more than wiped away once it was apparent he was genuinely ill.

[redjohn]

Biden has double-digit leads (or very near) in states+districts totaling 279 electoral votes. Trump is only clearly favored in 113. That's not even mentioning the numerous battleground states where he is clearly favored. The real race is for who can rack up the highest EV totals in the southwest and deep south. TX is more competitive than PA.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Of likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA after Trump and Biden debated 09/29/2020 but before Trump had revealed his COVID diagnosis, Biden led Trump by 8 points, 51% to 43%. In the tiny window of time between when Trump acknowledged his illness but before he was hospitalized, Trump closed to within 4 points, Biden 50%, Trump 46. In interviews completed after Trump had been helicoptered to Bethesda, Biden appears to have consolidated support, leading by 16 points among likely voters interviewed most recently, 56% to 40%.

So

Post-Debate, Pre-Covid: Biden +8
Post-Covid, Pre-Hospital, Biden +4
Post-Hospital: Biden +16

Fascinating.

It actually does substantiate the idea that Trump could have gotten a small, if temporary, bump in support from being diagnosed. But then that was more than wiped away once it was apparent he was genuinely ill.

Eh, more likely that the +4 was just noise. Would be curious to see how many voters were surveyed during that time period, I'm betting not very many.

[Fubart Solman]

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Barring some major gaffe or episode from Biden, this election is over. I understand people are still fearful of 2016, but Hillary was not leading by an average of 9-10% nationally in October 2016.

The biggest risk now is Trump and the GOP attempting to have all mail in ballots thrown out.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Barring some major gaffe or episode from Biden, this election is over. I understand people are still fearful of 2016, but Hillary was not leading by an average of 9-10% nationally in October 2016.

The biggest risk now is Trump and the GOP attempting to have all mail in ballots thrown out.

Even more importantly, she was never over 50%, something we are routinely seeing for Biden now - the highest she ever got in the averages was about 46%, due to the larger number of voters saying they were undecided or planning to vote third party.

[new_patomic]

Of likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA after Trump and Biden debated 09/29/2020 but before Trump had revealed his COVID diagnosis, Biden led Trump by 8 points, 51% to 43%. In the tiny window of time between when Trump acknowledged his illness but before he was hospitalized, Trump closed to within 4 points, Biden 50%, Trump 46. In interviews completed after Trump had been helicoptered to Bethesda, Biden appears to have consolidated support, leading by 16 points among likely voters interviewed most recently, 56% to 40%.

So

Post-Debate, Pre-Covid: Biden +8
Post-Covid, Pre-Hospital, Biden +4
Post-Hospital: Biden +16

Fascinating.

It actually does substantiate the idea that Trump could have gotten a small, if temporary, bump in support from being diagnosed. But then that was more than wiped away once it was apparent he was genuinely ill.

Eh, more likely that the +4 was just noise. Would be curious to see how many voters were surveyed during that time period, I'm betting not very many.

More than likely.

But it does make sense to me. I do think people react differently to "Trump has been diagnosed" but otherwise apparently is fine and even called into Sean Hannity, and "Trump has been diagnosed" and is now being airlifted to Walter Reed.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Where are all those trolls that said this was going to be closer than 2018?

Biden could hold a double-digit average lead until November 3 and a solid chunk of this board will still predict him getting less then 300 electoral votes

[riceowl]

Barring some major gaffe or episode from Biden, this election is over. I understand people are still fearful of 2016, but Hillary was not leading by an average of 9-10% nationally in October 2016.

The biggest risk now is Trump and the GOP attempting to have all mail in ballots thrown out.

I still think it's more likely than not that the Trump campaign or an affiliate has made a deep fake of Biden saying the n-word to drop the week before. So that's my level of pessimism!

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

By January, Trump will be gone, like a miracle, he will disappear.

[Horus]

Barring some major gaffe or episode from Biden, this election is over. I understand people are still fearful of 2016, but Hillary was not leading by an average of 9-10% nationally in October 2016.

The biggest risk now is Trump and the GOP attempting to have all mail in ballots thrown out.

I still think it's more likely than not that the Trump campaign or an affiliate has made a deep fake of Biden saying the n-word to drop the week before. So that's my level of pessimism!

This board still thinks the Trump campaign has a limit in how low they'll go. Something like this is more likely to happen than not unfortunately. I just hope the Biden camp is ready.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Barring some major gaffe or episode from Biden, this election is over. I understand people are still fearful of 2016, but Hillary was not leading by an average of 9-10% nationally in October 2016.

The biggest risk now is Trump and the GOP attempting to have all mail in ballots thrown out.

I still think it's more likely than not that the Trump campaign or an affiliate has made a deep fake of Biden saying the n-word to drop the week before. So that's my level of pessimism!

There actually is a real video of Biden saying the n word twice and it isn't fake. He's quoting someone 

[President Johnson]

So we're back with double digits leads? That must be the long awaited sympathy bump!

I just wish we had a number of high quality polls from Texas. In an environment like this, Joe Biden should be at least in very striking distance, if not ahead.

[Horus]

Biden leading by 59 among those who consider themselves "woke" might be the most important statistic of this cycle.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

good for trump

[GeorgiaModerate]

good for trump

You can stop now.  Everybody's gotten the joke.