SurveyUSA: Biden+10

[new_patomic]

Of likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA after Trump and Biden debated 09/29/2020 but before Trump had revealed his COVID diagnosis, Biden led Trump by 8 points, 51% to 43%. In the tiny window of time between when Trump acknowledged his illness but before he was hospitalized, Trump closed to within 4 points, Biden 50%, Trump 46. In interviews completed after Trump had been helicoptered to Bethesda, Biden appears to have consolidated support, leading by 16 points among likely voters interviewed most recently, 56% to 40%.

So

Post-Debate, Pre-Covid: Biden +8
Post-Covid, Pre-Hospital, Biden +4
Post-Hospital: Biden +16

Fascinating.

It actually does substantiate the idea that Trump could have gotten a small, if temporary, bump in support from being diagnosed. But then that was more than wiped away once it was apparent he was genuinely ill.

[new_patomic]

Of likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA after Trump and Biden debated 09/29/2020 but before Trump had revealed his COVID diagnosis, Biden led Trump by 8 points, 51% to 43%. In the tiny window of time between when Trump acknowledged his illness but before he was hospitalized, Trump closed to within 4 points, Biden 50%, Trump 46. In interviews completed after Trump had been helicoptered to Bethesda, Biden appears to have consolidated support, leading by 16 points among likely voters interviewed most recently, 56% to 40%.

So

Post-Debate, Pre-Covid: Biden +8
Post-Covid, Pre-Hospital, Biden +4
Post-Hospital: Biden +16

Fascinating.

It actually does substantiate the idea that Trump could have gotten a small, if temporary, bump in support from being diagnosed. But then that was more than wiped away once it was apparent he was genuinely ill.

Eh, more likely that the +4 was just noise. Would be curious to see how many voters were surveyed during that time period, I'm betting not very many.

More than likely.

But it does make sense to me. I do think people react differently to "Trump has been diagnosed" but otherwise apparently is fine and even called into Sean Hannity, and "Trump has been diagnosed" and is now being airlifted to Walter Reed.