2020 Poll Hype Thread

[redjohn]

Worth noting that, ahead of the LA Times tracker polls, Biden's polling (his vote %) is the highest it's ever been in 538's polling average (51.3%).

[wbrocks67]

Nothing today but they say it updates at midnight, so we'll see tonight...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1295730014105862144

Smart.

[SaneDemocrat]

It appears the USC/Dornslife tracking poll from LA Times should be up by tomorrow, at least according to their website:

The Center for the Political Future plans to run a daily tracking poll starting in August 2020 (first results by August 18) and similar to the one we ran in 2016. Among other things, the poll will track public attitudes about the presidential candidates who have won their party's nomination (Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green).

https://dornsife-center-for-political-future.usc.edu/polls/about-the-poll/

Biden+11 per Nate Cohn.I guess results will be up later.

[redjohn]

Any word on when we'll be getting a barrage of quality post-DNC polling?

[Tender Branson]

Any word on when we'll be getting a barrage of quality post-DNC polling?

Polls during the conventions are meaningless.

Only in 3 weeks the dust has settled and they can be taken seriously again.

[Holmes]

Any word on when we'll be getting a barrage of quality post-DNC polling?

Probably Sunday the earliest.

[wbrocks67]

Any word on when we'll be getting a barrage of quality post-DNC polling?

Probably Sunday the earliest.

Yeah, I assume there will be quite a few outlets that poll Friday/Saturday (today/tomorrow) and get releases out Sunday/Monday

[Dr. Arch]

My household just got polled by Action Research.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We got an ABC-Ipsos poll today showing a Biden bump in favorability, maybe we will see horse-race numbers from them soon.

[Tender Branson]

UNF doing presidential election polling work for The New York Times’ The UpShot

The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab is polling swing states in the Nov. 3 presidential election for The New York Times’ website The UpShot.

The research lab’s Faculty Director Michael Binder told members of the Meninak Club of Jacksonville business and civic group Aug. 24 that UNF pollsters will build on data gathered for The UpShot in June.

Binder said the UNF lab is a subcontractor in The New York Times’ project to gauge registered and likely voters’ taste for President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden’s policies.

UNF will poll likely voters in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania, Binder said. The UpShot also could add Texas to the UNF list.

Aug. 21-22 data from poll aggregation website FiveThirtyEight.com shows Trump leading Biden 47.3% to 46.4% in historically Republican-voting Texas.

The New York Times created The UpShot in April 2014 to examine “politics, policy and everyday life in new ways.”

The project engaged in live, real-time polling on election night for 2018 midterm elections, among other initiatives.

Binder said Aug. 24 that stemmed from the UpShot’s success doing data-driven journalism during special election races in 2017.

“The New York Times thought, ‘Well, we can essentially generate fake election results by doing these polls and producing them so quickly,’” Binder said. “It was intensely complicated and probably not worth it. What they’re doing this time is they’re targeting battleground states and it’s a moving target.”

Binder said he likes that The UpShot releases the methods used to gather its samples of likely voters. He said that gives readers a better understanding of who is being questioned and how it might impact the accuracy of the poll.

“They were doing some fascinating things with transparency and how this works,” Binder said.

Binder told the Meninak Club The UpShot determines likely voter status based 56% by voting history and 44% on self-reporting on the likelihood they will vote in the 2020 election.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/unf-doing-presidential-election-polling-work-for-the-new-york-times-the-upshot

UNF was a bit too Democratic in 2016 and 2018, showing Hillary winning FL by 3-4 points and Gillium by 6, but Nelson only by 1.

[Gass3268]

UNF sure is a downgrade from Siena.

[wbrocks67]

Huh. They worked with Siena for 2018 and just this past June's polls. Wonder why they dumped them. (or the other way around?)

[wbrocks67]

I emailed the USC/Dornsife people to see what's going on with that poll. Their 2020 page still showing 2016 #s

[Crumpets]

UNF sure is a downgrade from Siena.

As long as one of them still does the real time polling maps, I can sleep easy at night.

[tagimaucia]

UNF sure is a downgrade from Siena.

As long as one of them still does the real time polling maps, I can sleep easy at night.

Nate said NYT isn’t doing it this year at all. It was in a random reply tweet so I’m not going to the effort of finding it.

[Gass3268]

UNF sure is a downgrade from Siena.

As long as one of them still does the real time polling maps, I can sleep easy at night.

Nate said NYT isn’t doing it this year at all. It was in a random reply tweet so I’m not going to the effort of finding it.

Real bummer. Looks like no live polling and no Upshot model.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Anyways, should we expect any polls this weekend? Perhaps CBS?

[politics_king]

Anyways, should we expect any polls this weekend? Perhaps CBS?

Polling should be really ramping up after Labor Day.

[Ferguson97]

Anyways, should we expect any polls this weekend? Perhaps CBS?

Polling should be really ramping up after Labor Day.

That’s when SN promised tightening right?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ositanwanevu/status/1299479225972518913

This is wild

[Ferguson97]

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/ositanwanevu/status/1299479225972518913

This is wild

can someone please explain what the hell happened here

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ositanwanevu/status/1299479225972518913
This is wild

can someone please explain what the hell happened here

Two ET guys created a fake Gravis poll as a meme, then pretended it was real and sent it to a local MA journalist, who published it. When they caught heat for the inconsistencies, the pranksters came out saying it was a social experiment, then apologised as people started haranguing them for it. Some went so far as to suggest they were trying to fix betting markets and threaten lawsuits (lol) so they deactivated their accounts.

[neostassenite31]

In regards to more polling for Minnesota, for those of you who don't know this, the Star Tribune (local newspaper) has always commissioned Mason-Dixon around the 09/10-9/20 timeframe every single general election season for the past decade, while KSTP has always commissioned SurveyUSA around the 09/05-09/20 timeframe every cycle as well. If the other major media pollsters don't start polling MN soon, these two pollsters can almost be expected in short succession (no guarantee of course because nothing is officially released).