http://myinforms.com/en-us/a/35732045-whos-to-blame-for-budget-impasse-fresh-poll-shows-its-madigan/According to this poll, voters are blaming Madigan for the gridlock more than Rauner. If anything, this suggests that Rauner may actually be favored for reelection in 2018--he can exploit discontent with Madigan over the budget gridlock and attack Democrats as obstructionists. He can call them the "party of no" or the "do-nothing legislature," and based on the track record of that strategy, it will probably work.
In 2006, when Jennifer Granholm ran for reelection as governor here in Michigan, she also faced low job approval because of a struggling economy. But voters blamed Bush more than her for Michigan's economic problems, and she knew it. As a result, she was able to capitalize on the strong anti-Bush sentiment of that year and win reelection by a decisive margin. I suspect Rauner will win reelection the same way.
