UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[ingemann]

Jeremy Clarkson has come out in favour of a Remain vote...

I'm slightly surprised.

[ingemann]

People already pointing out how he's a 'loner' etc (much like the Charleston shooting/Sandy Hook) where as if this was a muslim then well the media would be reporting it very differently

And if this wasn't less than a week away from a incredible important election, it would likely have been covered differently. The Brexiters don't want to talk about this guy because it risk weaken their case, and the Bremainers want to, but they risk two things, that it's seen as a cynical attempt to weaken the Brexit side or worse that the guy really is just a loon. So they would risk a backlash.

Dear God people, it demands next to no critical thinking to get why the media is terrified of handling this wrong.

[ingemann]

Let's say the UK leaves the EU.

What are the practical, short-term and medium-term effects? How does life in the EU and life in the UK actually change?

(The UK never had the Euro, so that doesn't change...)

Hard to answer, it really depend on how the aftermatch is handled.

A Norwegian/Swiss solution: The situation will stay like now, except that London's value as financial centre have becomed much lower. We will likely see a lot of international companies moving their European headquarters to other countries. But in general it will have little effect except for slightly lower growth. Of course this solution demand that UK keep uphold the free movement of labour. The political consequence of this deal will likely be chaotic.

A clean break/free trade agreement: It will be pretty damn horrible.

[ingemann]

Let's say the UK leaves the EU.

What are the practical, short-term and medium-term effects? How does life in the EU and life in the UK actually change?

(The UK never had the Euro, so that doesn't change...)

Hard to answer, it really depend on how the aftermatch is handled.

A Norwegian/Swiss solution: The situation will stay like now, except that London's value as financial centre have becomed much lower. We will likely see a lot of international companies moving their European headquarters to other countries. But in general it will have little effect except for slightly lower growth. Of course this solution demand that UK keep uphold the free movement of labour. The political consequence of this deal will likely be chaotic.

A clean break/free trade agreement: It will be pretty damn horrible.
[/quote

I have found some numbers (source: OECD) on the effect of leaving, and these are conservative estimates based on the UK and EU finding a friendly solution.

By 2020 UK will have 3,3% lower GDP than if it stayed in EU. This mean that if example UK's GDP would have grown 8% by 2020 if they stayed in EU. Here their economy would just grow 4,7%.

UK will have 723 fewer job than if they had stayed in EU in the same periode. So if UK would have gained 1 million job with continued EU membership, here they would only 277 000.

In longer term (2030) OECD expect a loss between 2,7% and 7,7% of the GDP, they think a loss of 5,1% would be the most likely .

The British treasury on the other hand expect a loss of 3,8% if a Norwegian deal is reached, while they expect a loss of 7,5% if such a deal is not reached.

The effect on other countries toward 2020

Germany: 0,9%; 278 000 jobs

Spain: 0,6%; 125 000 jobs

Poland: 0,7%; 95 000 jobs

Sweden: 0,7%; 24 000 jobs

Denmark: 0,7%: 13 000 jobs
 
Belgium: 0,7%; 22 000 jobs

Danish link PDFhttp://www.ae.dk/sites/www.ae.dk/files/dokumenter/analyse/ae_brexit-kan-koste-op-mod-13000-danske-arbejdspladser.pdf