Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

I guess that means the Russians are concerned about a Ukrainian advance on Kherson.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516479750629330944?s=20&t=cGliSPd...

Speaking of: note the absence of cheering civilians:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516469932778737669?s=20&t=_4btjce...

[Omega21]

Expecting news like this to accelerate once the 12 Mariupol BTGs are fully thrown into the offensive blob.

Even though this is a much better performance than the Northern offensive, Russia is still taking considerable losses. Even if they take control of the Donbas, their forces will probably be very depleted, which should hopefully mean that they can't muster enough to assault Mykolaiv and Odesa, since that would effectively turn Ukraine into an economically neutered, landlocked state.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1516486299825418247

[Person Man]

Expecting news like this to accelerate once the 12 Mariupol BTGs are fully thrown into the offensive blob.

Even though this is a much better performance than the Northern offensive, Russia is still taking considerable losses. Even if they take control of the Donbas, their forces will probably be very depleted, which should hopefully mean that they can't muster enough to assault Mykolaiv and Odesa, since that would effectively turn Ukraine into an economically neutered, landlocked state.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1516486299825418247

How considerable?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Having been too pro-Russian in the past can hurt your political career in the present.


https://twitter.com/derJamesJackson/status/1515958662031974404


https://twitter.com/derJamesJackson/status/1515960531303247878

[Omega21]

Expecting news like this to accelerate once the 12 Mariupol BTGs are fully thrown into the offensive blob.

Even though this is a much better performance than the Northern offensive, Russia is still taking considerable losses. Even if they take control of the Donbas, their forces will probably be very depleted, which should hopefully mean that they can't muster enough to assault Mykolaiv and Odesa, since that would effectively turn Ukraine into an economically neutered, landlocked state.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1516486299825418247

How considerable?

Seems it is far less than the Kiev/Sumi clusterf**k, as I have not seen any comparable evidence, such as large burned-out columns etc.

However, I am still seeing at least a dozen of newly destroyed pieces of equipment from the South & East daily (UA Telegram, Twitter etc.), and that's just the things that end up on camera, so they are still constantly trading troops & vehicles for ground taken (unlike the first blitz in the South).

Analysts usually agree on the following:

1. Russia has actually made some changes and fixed some mistakes

2. Donbas Terrain is more accomodating for the offensive side

3. Russia is now actually focusing its forces on a realistic territory goal & employing its doctrine to some effect (first pound tons of arty at the enemy & then move up)

4. Supplying troops is much easier in the East & South, since they are actually fully clearing the areas they take. This is in contrast to the Northern offensive, where they had very long supply lines that were constantly being ambushed since they did not take all the territory around it. Plus, the supply lines are also a lot shorter in some places.

I am inclined to think that RU might actually take the Donbas eventually. If it does happen, then the question will be how much they paid for it, which would determine their future goals. If they have a lot left, then they could turn that against the remaining coastal areas and that would be very painful for Ukraine.

But, since even western Intelligence was wrong on a ton of stuff, I don't' put much weight on my "analysis".

[Logical]

This is good news for Ukraine's ability to stay in the fight. As far as I know, Ukrainian armor repair facilities have been targeted since the start of the war and is almost completely destroyed.
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1516435083648978945

[Person Man]

Expecting news like this to accelerate once the 12 Mariupol BTGs are fully thrown into the offensive blob.

Even though this is a much better performance than the Northern offensive, Russia is still taking considerable losses. Even if they take control of the Donbas, their forces will probably be very depleted, which should hopefully mean that they can't muster enough to assault Mykolaiv and Odesa, since that would effectively turn Ukraine into an economically neutered, landlocked state.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1516486299825418247

How considerable?

Seems it is far less than the Kiev/Sumi clusterf**k, as I have not seen any comparable evidence, such as large burned-out columns etc.

However, I am still seeing at least a dozen of newly destroyed pieces of equipment from the South & East daily (UA Telegram, Twitter etc.), and that's just the things that end up on camera, so they are still constantly trading troops & vehicles for ground taken (unlike the first blitz in the South).

Analysts usually agree on the following:

1. Russia has actually made some changes and fixed some mistakes

2. Donbas Terrain is more accomodating for the offensive side

3. Russia is now actually focusing its forces on a realistic territory goal & employing its doctrine to some effect (first pound tons of arty at the enemy & then move up)

4. Supplying troops is much easier in the East & South, since they are actually fully clearing the areas they take. This is in contrast to the Northern offensive, where they had very long supply lines that were constantly being ambushed since they did not take all the territory around it. Plus, the supply lines are also a lot shorter in some places.

I am inclined to think that RU might actually take the Donbas eventually. If it does happen, then the question will be how much they paid for it, which would determine their future goals. If they have a lot left, then they could turn that against the remaining coastal areas and that would be very painful for Ukraine.

But, since even western Intelligence was wrong on a ton of stuff, I don't' put much weight on my "analysis".

So they are doing better than their assault on Kiev, but not as well on their assault on Kherson?

[Omega21]

So they are doing better than their assault on Kiev, but not as well on their assault on Kherson?

Exactly, that about sums it up well.

[Logical]

Russians wasting no time restarting "the education" of Mariupol's youth.

https://twitter.com/anek_arts/status/1516414688896196612

Or in having fake "votes". I wonder who "authorized" the people making decisions.  

The former Rozivka Raion (Ukraine reorganized local administrative divisions in 2020) has only 8,000 residents. It is bordered by Donetsk Oblast on three sides, so I assume the lame excuse rationale is going to be that it's actually part of the Donbass cruely separated from its brethren by artificial lines on a map. 

https://twitter.com/anek_arts/status/1516389047995826182

[Person Man]

So they are doing better than their assault on Kiev, but not as well on their assault on Kherson?

Exactly, that about sums it up well.

So it it most likely that Luhansk and Donetsk are lost in 80 or 90 percent of scenarios but Kiev and even Odessa are probably safe in 89-90% of scenarios.

[Omega21]

So they are doing better than their assault on Kiev, but not as well on their assault on Kherson?

Exactly, that about sums it up well.

So it it most likely that Luhansk and Donetsk are lost in 80 or 90 percent of scenarios but Kiev and even Odessa are probably safe in 89-90% of scenarios.

Yes, I do think RU is now fairly likely to capture the Donbas in the following weeks & months.

I think Kiev is 100% off the table as well, but not so sure about Odesa & Mykolaiv.

The thing is, Putin needs something to pressure UA into signing a peace after they capture the Donbas, otherwise, they might just keep going. Seeing as Kiev is off the table, they might go for Mykolaiv & Odesa, as that's also something the Ukrainians can't afford to lose & that might "motivate" them to let go of the other areas.

Just my uneducated opinion, so we'll see how it turns out.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A rather cryptic announcement. Is this supposed to translate into "we've finally done the Polish MiG-29 deal, but won't confirm anything about it"?


https://twitter.com/justwokeupjava/status/1516535844055797764

[Person Man]

So they are doing better than their assault on Kiev, but not as well on their assault on Kherson?

Exactly, that about sums it up well.

So it it most likely that Luhansk and Donetsk are lost in 80 or 90 percent of scenarios but Kiev and even Odessa are probably safe in 89-90% of scenarios.

Yes, I do think RU is now fairly likely to capture the Donbas in the following weeks & months.

I think Kiev is 100% off the table as well, but not so sure about Odesa & Mykolaiv.

The thing is, Putin needs something to pressure UA into signing a peace after they capture the Donbas, otherwise, they might just keep going. Seeing as Kiev is off the table, they might go for Mykolaiv & Odesa, as that's also something the Ukrainians can't afford to lose & that might "motivate" them to let go of the other areas.

Just my uneducated opinion, so we'll see how it turns out.

I can buy that but Putin just gets what he already had and has ruined his economy and military. That at least buys Ukraine time to integrate with Europe.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beautiful:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1516532979832700933

[Person Man]

A rather cryptic announcement. Is this supposed to translate into "we've finally done the Polish MiG-29 deal, but won't confirm anything about it"?


https://twitter.com/justwokeupjava/status/1516535844055797764

Maybe they will continue to have more fighter aircraft.

[Badger]

The Russians have now reportedly entered & are fighting for Torske, putting Ukrainians under threat of encirclement.

As for Woodbury, I don't know how he privately feels about the conflict, but his posts here are most definitely useful.

The wast majority of us here support Ukraine, so it has kind of turned into a bubble celebrating every decapitated T-72 and not posting any UA losses, which is terrible if we want an objective view of the battlefield.

This is why I've switched to almost only posting Russian gains. I certainly don't like them gaining a foot beyond Crimea (that's a done deal IMO), but just ignoring it won't change the situation on the ground.

We are not in a trench in Donbas & our "moral" doesn't really matter.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1516404643059933185

 Oh, I totally agree that it is necessary to have have reports from reputable sources like these about Russian advances as well rather than kicking our heels up at every photo of another destroyed Russian tank.

My point is that sir Woodbury, per usual, seems to be grotesquely dishonest about his motives and Whom hes genuinely cheering on.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Canada is also sending heavy artillery to Ukraine.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday his government plans to send heavy artillery to Ukraine, as Russia launched a new military offensive in the country's east.

Mr. Trudeau said Canada has been in close contact with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to ensure it is responding to the country's specific needs, and the most recent request was for heavy artillery. He didn't provide details on what kind of artillery Canada plans to send or when it might arrive.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-19

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516528734601465861

Why does it have to be "from countries other than the U.S."

Why isn't it "from the US"?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/CaitlinDoornbos/status/1516509028947574784

[NOVA Green]

Thought I would post this, since it's an article which actually provides something slightly different from our standard daily news read outs from multiple publications.

Looks like Russia might be trying to pay informants in villages on the front-lines in the Donetsk region.

If true, would not be surprised if this tactic has not been previously used elsewhere within Ukraine.

Free article and donation suggested.

Police scout for pro-Russia collaborators in eastern Ukraine

Officers in Donetsk say spies pass on coordinates or photographs of targets via Telegram in exchange for cash

Oleksandr Malish, the patrol police chief for the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the Donetsk region, is reluctant to call people suspected of collaborating with Russia Ukrainians.

Malish said there were pro-Russia Telegram groups with the “Z” branding that were targeting residents. The administrator of the Telegram group would put out a notice asking for coordinates or photos of a certain place in exchange for money. When a person sent the “goods” to the administrator, they received up to £500 on their bank card, Malish said.

He said his team had found evidence of such Telegram exchanges and bank transfers on the phones of “numerous” suspected collaborators they had detained. He said declined to say exactly how many.
The Guardian was not able to find the Telegram groups Malish described. But it did find public Telegram groups for Kramatorsk and Slovyansk with “Z” branding that carry pro-Russia messaging about the war.

The groups have about 15,000 subscribers. The Guardian was not able to confirm that they were all genuine residents of the two cities and neighbouring villages, though some appeared to be.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/19/police-scout-for-pro-russian-collaborators-in-eastern-ukraine

[DINGO Joe]

Fresh copium just dropped. Unable to explain why the mighty Russian army failed to take Azovstal despite relentless bombings, they have now made Osama's hideout in Tora Bora tier info graphics, including the biolabs lol.

lmao any idea what the words say? i'm curious as to what they think the Ukrainians have underneath some random shed in the middle of what looks to be a cow pasture?

Nazi stuff, biolabs, and antifa/BLM abortion clinics. What else?

It looks like they're growing marijuana on one level.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516528734601465861

Why does it have to be "from countries other than the U.S."

Why isn't it "from the US"?

US doesn't have compatible aircraft which Ukrainian pilots would be able to quickly and easily master is certainly a main reason, as if much other forms of military hardware.

Takes a lot longer to cross-train a pilot on flying a different type of fighter jet, than it does to train experienced soldiers on conventional anti-tank weapons.

Also, suspect US wouldn't really want the Russian Military to be able to recover certain types of military hardware which then they could effectively reverse engineer or sell the military tech to other countries.

It's not all just about "not wanting to poke the bear" gig...

[NOVA Green]

Part of the reason why we are starting to see more artillery systems showing up in Ukraine in the very near future?

Free article and tons more to read so give them the click

Ukraine’s Ability To Withstand Russian Artillery Critical To Fight For Donbas


Russian and Ukrainian artillery will play a much more decisive role in the battle for Eastern Ukraine.

As Russia begins its push to capture a wider swath of the Donbas, the ability to mass and continue to supply its artillery and other long-range fires capabilities will play a huge role in the success of its latest campaign.

Indiscriminate massed fires, meant to kill, confuse, soften and destabilize an enemy ahead of an advance, has long been a key tenant of Soviet and Russian military doctrine. It was as true in World War II (in much of the same territory) as it is today.

In a Twitter thread, Mark Hertling, who retired in 2013 as an Army lieutenant general in charge of Army forces in Europe, noted that Russian artillery has a range upwards of 50 miles.

"RU artillery can fire ranges up to about 30 miles (if they use rocket assisted projectiles, or RAP) to 22-50 miles (like the Uragan multiple launched rocket systems)," he tweeted. Russia's largest rockets can reach up to the aforementioned 50 miles.

“The only way to stop: find them (through counter-fire radar or overhead drones), then fire at them,” he noted. “Ukraine also has artillery - tubed and rockets. Just not as much as the Russians.”

Ukraine, he added, also has AN/TPQ-36 counter-fire radars to "find" Russian artillery locations. And Ukraine “has proven themselves very competent in connecting intel to targeting.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-ability-to-withstand-russian-artillery-critical-to-fight-for-donbas

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516528734601465861

Why does it have to be "from countries other than the U.S."

Why isn't it "from the US"?

Off the top of my head, I'm guessing it's just b/c the US doesn't have MiG's, which is what the Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly. These fighters are most likely from Poland, and what other countries I'm not sure. Could be wrong as I didn't look it up, but I think the least advanced fighter still in service in the US is the F-15. Now, should the US be giving Ukraine more advanced jets than MiG's to fight off the Russians? IMO, 100% yes. I read an interview with a Ukrainian pilot a week or so ago and he said the big problem is that the Russians are using much more advanced SU-35's, and pretty much the best the Ukrainian pilots can do in their MiG's when they engage them is to try not to die and to lure the russians into an airspace where the Ukrainians have anti-fighter missiles set up. We should be training their pilots how to fly F-16's in Germany and allowing them to finance the purchase of F-16's, if not simply donating them. We have enough F-35's and F-22's that we can safely get rid of at least some F-16's at this point.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1516558193299755014
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1516558472170647565