Trump speaks with the President of Taiwan, risking rift with China (user search)
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  Trump speaks with the President of Taiwan, risking rift with China (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump speaks with the President of Taiwan, risking rift with China  (Read 4852 times)
JJC
Jr. Member
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Posts: 446


« on: December 03, 2016, 01:06:50 AM »

Trump is doubling-down on Taiwan on Twitter, sounding like a internet troll who just took his first class in international politics, while the Chinese FM calls it a "cheap shot" by Taiwan to manipulate Trump into blundering (sounds like they're implying they know Trump is an ignoramus, and implying Taiwan was mean to Trump by baiting him into this and going over his head). Trump is already a laughing stock. At least it's better than China doing something rash in response.

The 'elites' have been calling Trump a laughing stock since his escalator ride to destiny.

He has since defeated the GOP establishment, the Dem establishment, the Bush machine, the Clinton machine, and the industrial media complex. One day they might learn to stop underestimating his as a bumbling buffoon. They think Trump is an ideologue, when the truth couldn't be any further.

Trump is a pragmatist of the highest order. If you want to understand him, you have to understand that he is first and foremost a businessman, thinks like a businessman, and will use any means necessary to come out on top. He's not a politician and he doesn't care how the 'game' is supposed to be played.

Trump doesn't care about these social/political norms that all politicians are supposed to follow, where even the president has an expected part to play. Instead he sees a goal he wants to accomplish, and then does what is necessary to accomplish it. He doesn't maneuver the chess pieces; he flips the board off the table completely. And the 'elites' have no idea how to respond.

Take China for example. Trump wants to renegotiate trade deals with China. And as with any negotiation between two entities, you have to first establish 1) the tone of the negotiation and 2) the context of the deal.

If Trump was continuously amiable towards China, then the Chinese would push hard to get what they wanted, fully expecting the US President to rubber stamp their agendas (especially when American presidents/politicians idiotically announce that they are unwilling to risk damaging American/Chinese relations). The Chinese would expect that the US president would be unwilling to damage/risk trade with their largest trading partner, and would use this fact to their advantage, pushing through deals that they know most Presidents wouldn't refuse in fear of retaliation. By declaring that we are unwilling to walk away from any China trade deal, this immediately puts us at a disadvantage at the negotiating table.

With Trump though, that notion of inevitable acceptance to their preferred policies fly out the window. If Trump is willing to break a decades long tradition and make friendly relations with Taiwan, then he might be willing to cut off major trade with China, consequences be damned. This completely reverses the context of the negotiation. Now, China has much more to lose because the US might very well turn away from trade deals with Trump as president. Now, it's the Chinese who have to be careful with damaging relations with the US for fear of massive tariffs on imported goods. Obama wouldn't take a risk like this. Romney wouldn't take a risk like this. But Trump might just be willing to do it. The Chinese just don't know, which puts them at a disadvantage.

It's the age old adage; "Keep your opponents guessing"
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JJC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446


« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2016, 04:26:21 AM »

Trump is doubling-down on Taiwan on Twitter, sounding like a internet troll who just took his first class in international politics, while the Chinese FM calls it a "cheap shot" by Taiwan to manipulate Trump into blundering (sounds like they're implying they know Trump is an ignoramus, and implying Taiwan was mean to Trump by baiting him into this and going over his head). Trump is already a laughing stock. At least it's better than China doing something rash in response.

The 'elites' have been calling Trump a laughing stock since his escalator ride to destiny.

He has since defeated the GOP establishment, the Dem establishment, the Bush machine, the Clinton machine, and the industrial media complex. One day they might learn to stop underestimating his as a bumbling buffoon. They think Trump is an ideologue, when the truth couldn't be any further.

Trump is a conarpragmatist of the highest order. If you want to understand him, you have to understand that he is first and foremost a business conman, thinks like a businessconman, and will use any means necessary to come out on top. He's not a politician and he doesn't care how the 'game' is supposed to be played.

Trump doesn't care about these social/political norms that all politicianscivilized human beings are supposed to follow, where even the president has an expected part to play. Instead he sees a goal he wants to accomplish, and then does what is necessary to accomplish it. He doesn't maneuver the chess pieces; he flips the board off the table completely. And the 'elites' have no idea how to respond.

I was correcting it for you, but I had to stop there, because you just (correctly) described President-elect Pussygrabber as the punchline of a joke:


Pussygrabber is the ultimate example of the Dunning-Kruger effect, and also of the person who runs out in front of the band with a baton and then think they're leading the parade.

'Political correctness' was literally invented as a way to silence opposing opinions.

Civilized human beings do not shut down dissent, create 'safe spaces', engage in mass 'cultural shaming', threaten people with violence, riot, or falsely accuse others of bigotry (whilst dividing people by race and sex). They do not attempt to destroy people's careers or livelihoods for holding the 'wrong' view.

And for the record, whether Trump is civilized or not is irrelevant to my point.
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JJC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446


« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2016, 06:09:57 PM »

I think the PRC will be quite calm about this for the following reasons

1) They see Trump as a deal-maker and ergo they see this move as Trump trying to establish psychological advantage over them in the tough round of negotiations over strategic matters including trade in the years to come.  As a result the do not see this as a shift in policy but a symbolic threat which is something they engage in all the time and can properly understand. 

2) The real PRC fear is that something like this boost Tsai's position in ROC politics.  Tsai has taken a subtlety pro-independence line and have not accepted the 92 Consensus worked out between CCP and KMT (There is only One China but both sides can define who is that One China.)  The PRC wants to make sure that Tsai pays the political consequences of this (drive down her approval ratings with moderates on ROC.)  Given that Tsai has several ROC domestic blowups (Gay Marriage bill controversy, new proposed holiday system which is angering pro-DPP Union allies, proposed allowing Japanese goods from prefectures that were affected by the nuclear leaks in 2011 etc etc) her approval rating is falling rapidly so the PRC will mostly feel that Tsai's bump from this would be tiny and transient.  As a result there is no need to freak out.

As a result I suspect the PRC will bark a bit about this and then move on to getting ready to negotiate with Trump on all sorts of matters.  What they will see is Trump will be the hardest bargainer they have seen to date on the USA but one that can most likely get to a deal with to settle all sorts of strategic matters  with perhaps some sort of  "spheres-of-influences" deal that is basic in Great Power politics.


^This
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JJC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446


« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2016, 06:22:43 PM »


It seems like Trump is trying to intentionally instigate international conflicts. Hopefully he fails miserably and crashes the economy

I seem to remember another populist, rant-prone politician with fanatical followers who didn't have any sort of popular majority, and liked to demonize minorities, provoke conflicts with other nations and thought he was smarter than all the professionals. The sooner Pussygrabber gets to how the story ends, the better.

Trump has never demonized minorities.
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