Trump speaks with the President of Taiwan, risking rift with China

[jaichind]

I think the PRC will be quite calm about this for the following reasons

1) They see Trump as a deal-maker and ergo they see this move as Trump trying to establish psychological advantage over them in the tough round of negotiations over strategic matters including trade in the years to come.  As a result the do not see this as a shift in policy but a symbolic threat which is something they engage in all the time and can properly understand. 

2) The real PRC fear is that something like this boost Tsai's position in ROC politics.  Tsai has taken a subtlety pro-independence line and have not accepted the 92 Consensus worked out between CCP and KMT (There is only One China but both sides can define who is that One China.)  The PRC wants to make sure that Tsai pays the political consequences of this (drive down her approval ratings with moderates on ROC.)  Given that Tsai has several ROC domestic blowups (Gay Marriage bill controversy, new proposed holiday system which is angering pro-DPP Union allies, proposed allowing Japanese goods from prefectures that were affected by the nuclear leaks in 2011 etc etc) her approval rating is falling rapidly so the PRC will mostly feel that Tsai's bump from this would be tiny and transient.  As a result there is no need to freak out.

As a result I suspect the PRC will bark a bit about this and then move on to getting ready to negotiate with Trump on all sorts of matters.  What they will see is Trump will be the hardest bargainer they have seen to date on the USA but one that can most likely get to a deal with to settle all sorts of strategic matters  with perhaps some sort of  "spheres-of-influences" deal that is basic in Great Power politics.

[jaichind]

Eventually Trump can always unleash his Chinese speaking granddaughter to push up his image on the PRC with videos like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikiv7VV24Kw

She is reciting a famous Chinese poem.  My son  who is also five also learned the same poem about a year ago, my DW being very into Chinese poetry.