MI-GOV: Who wins Dem primary?

[SingingAnalyst]

Whitmer is the "favorite", but we know how well that worked for one Hillary Clinton on March 8, 2016.

According to one poll, Thanedar is doing well with African-Americans, a significant share of MI's Dem vote. According to the same poll, el-Sayed is actually leading among women under 50. El-Sayed does have the endorsement of the nurses' association.

I vote Whitmer, but she'll be lucky to get much over 40%.

[SingingAnalyst]

If I had to guess the final vote:

Whitmer - 45%
El-Sayed - 31%
Thanedar - 24%

I say that's almost spot-on. I am thinking
Whitmer 42.5%
El-Sayed 28.5%
Thanedar 26.5%
Write-in 2.5%

[SingingAnalyst]

Perhaps not the most unbiased poll (though 42% of those respondents who voted in the 2016 Dem primary voted Clinton, so it may not be too far off), but it shows El-Sayed behind Whitmer by just 5.8%. (Nearly a quarter are undecided, which probably helps El-Sayed).

https://abdulformichigan.com/sites/default/files/AbdulElSayedToplines_ChangeResearch.pdf

[SingingAnalyst]

With 2% reporting, Whitmer leads El-Sayed 47% - 34%.

[SingingAnalyst]

With 211% reporting, Whitmer leads El-Sayed 4749% - 3433%.

[SingingAnalyst]

Just called for Gretchen Whitmer. She'll face Bill Schuette in the fall.

[SingingAnalyst]

Well, she won an outright majority of the vote, and won every county except for Washtenaw (and even there, she lost by slightly over 100 votes).  

This is close enough as it'll be to a Stacey Evans-ing for El-Sayed.  I'll take it.

Plus, more Dems voted in the primary!  Good luck, Schuette.  You'll need it.

Whitmer outpolled Schuette overall, 582,583 to 498,419 and marginally did so in Macomb (where she won big), 50,856 to 49,850 (Schuette also won big in Macomb).

I foresee a hard-fought battle with Whitmer ultimately coming out on top, 53%-45% or so; she narrowly wins Macomb.

[SingingAnalyst]

Well, she won an outright majority of the vote, and won every county except for Washtenaw (and even there, she lost by slightly over 100 votes).  

This is close enough as it'll be to a Stacey Evans-ing for El-Sayed.  I'll take it.

Plus, more Dems voted in the primary!  Good luck, Schuette.  You'll need it.

Whitmer outpolled Schuette overall, 582,583 to 498,419 and marginally did so in Macomb (where she won big), 50,856 to 49,850 (Schuette also won big in Macomb).

I foresee a hard-fought battle with Whitmer ultimately coming out on top, 53%-45% or so; she narrowly wins Macomb.

I honestly think if she doesn't harp on social issues too much, she'll be the perfect fit for Macomb.

I think she will focus on economic and infrastructure issues ("Fix the d*mn roads!") She may do well to campaign in areas in which she did well, such as Northern Michigan (where she flirted with 70% in a few counties) Macomb, and the Thumb, focusing on these issues, as well as education. Of course she will also need to give those in the UP and Blacks in Detroit, Pontiac, Flint, and Saginaw (Thanedar's strongest areas) as well as young whites in Washtenaw County and southeast Oakland County (El-Sayed's strongest areas) a reason to turn out and vote for her. Going for her is the fact that a few supporters of Republican Brian Calley may vote for her as well.

I say she wins 53-45, winning nearly 75% in Wayne and Washtenaw, 70% in Ingham, 56% in Oakland, and 50% in Macomb. Helping to keeping her numbers down in these latter two counties is that Schuette has positioned himself as a champion of private schools-- of which there are many in these two counties (plus that fact that Macomb still has a lot of single-issue--abortion--voters). She should finish in the 40s in the Thumb and Northern Michigan counties that gave Hillary percentages in the 20s.

[SingingAnalyst]

The problem with Whitmer is 98% style, though the whole Blue Cross stuff and stance of Campaign Finance is a little much...but no worse than the "Abolish ICE" hysteria going around, especially with the Berniecrats.

But style is key when there's little real, tangible difference. And Woodmer doesn't have it compared to the more passionate, bold, and articulated El-Sayed. Even Thanedar had more going for him in that regard (though there was plenty else wrong with him).

It's easy to say whose "more electable" when you have a semi-arbitrary checklist, both candidates check the boxes off, but the factor is who has the most money, regardless of where the money is coming from, persuasiveness, and keeping the other side on the defense.

Now with the loss of El-Sayed, the burden shifts on the hope that Schuette is quite wooden himself.

Eh, Thanedar made a fool of himself everywhere he went. Whitmer is not that charismatic, certainly not as much as El-Sayed, but she's got Obama levels of charisma compared to Thanedar.

I think she'll find her voice, and find a message that goes beyond "fix the d*mn roads", which she repeated in her victory speech. She definitely needs to reach out to El-Sayed supporters, which she will. She may want to point out that Bill Schuette was first elected to Congress in 1984, when Whitmer was 13.