Election predictions and post hoc fallacy

[Ferguson97]

For those not familiar, post hoc fallacy is a statement that says "since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

Most people here agree that the Democrats will do poorly in the midterms. When that happens, there will be a huge debate over what led to this result.

As this applies to trying to extrapolate election results, people saying right now that the Democrats' midterm losses will be because of inflation / it will be because of lockdowns / it will be because of CRT / it will be because that's typically what happens to the party in power.

Basically it's making a likely prediction and attributing to an explanation that suits our agenda.

So how can we avoid falling for the post hoc fallacy as we make election predictions, and eventually, perform an autopsy on the results? For both sides of the aisle?