NC-PPP: Obama regains 20-point lead over Clinton

[Gustaf]

Note though that this large swing in North Carolina is within the PPP context. I suspect this says more about PPP than about North Carolina. (which of course means that their last poll should not be taken as a sign of a Clinton comeback either. The more I see of PPP the more sceptical I get)

[Gustaf]

I thought PPP polls were always thrown out. I guess not in this case ...

I don't understand why we would, considering they haven't screwed up a race badly yet.  Underestimating Obama in Georgia appears to be their greatest sin thus far.

They seem to be very volatile in their polling. That always makes me a bit suspicious.

[Gustaf]

I thought PPP polls were always thrown out. I guess not in this case ...

I don't understand why we would, considering they haven't screwed up a race badly yet.  Underestimating Obama in Georgia appears to be their greatest sin thus far.

They seem to be very volatile in their polling. That always makes me a bit suspicious.

I haven't seen any evidence of PPP volatility until today.  Their results are otherwise pretty consistent with trends:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=108

It was the same in Wisconsin, with Obama suddenly jumping 9% in 6 days. Apart from that they've only really polled Georgia (which they blew), New York and Tennessee (where they did good) and South Carolina (where they were also ok, sort of). As I just said in another thread I did have them a bit confused with Insider Advantage, for some reason. So they're not that bad, I guess. But I prefer Rasmussen and SUSA.

[Gustaf]

PPP has been great so far this year.

Again, great is an exaggeration, imo. They haven't polled enough races to allow us to call them either way. But I retract my earlier statement, that was a mistake on my part.

[Gustaf]

It was the same in Wisconsin, with Obama suddenly jumping 9% in 6 days.

PPP only polled Wisconsin twice.  They showed Obama up 11 on Feb 12th, and then up 13 on Feb 17th.

Ahem...I don't think I will ever discuss PPP ever again. It seems to be cursed for me. This time I thought that NC poll was a WI poll for some reason. Well...never mind me, I'll just toddle along.

[Gustaf]

The white vote is within 7 points. I really do think the white vote will closer here than in PA.

Seriously? Why on earth would that happen? Obama will win North Carolina, if he does, largely on the strength of the black vote. There are still some Jessecrats out there and they sure ain't gonna vote for the black man. Obama will probably not get blown away among whites like in the Deep South, but I doubt he does better than in Northern states.

[Gustaf]

The white vote is within 7 points. I really do think the white vote will closer here than in PA.

Seriously? Why on earth would that happen? Obama will win North Carolina, if he does, largely on the strength of the black vote. There are still some Jessecrats out there and they sure ain't gonna vote for the black man. Obama will probably not get blown away among whites like in the Deep South, but I doubt he does better than in Northern states.

You have many white liberals from the northeast which have moved down to the Raleigh, Charlotte & greensboro areas, you also have Asheville which is quite liberal.  Within 7% seems a bit too close, but I think he will be closer with the white vote in NC than most people think he will.

I'm well aware of that. Hence:

Obama will probably not get blown away among whites like in the Deep South

I still doubt there are more Northern liberals in a Southern Republican state than in a Northern Democratic state.

[Gustaf]

Note though that this large swing in North Carolina is within the PPP context. I suspect this says more about PPP than about North Carolina. (which of course means that their last poll should not be taken as a sign of a Clinton comeback either. The more I see of PPP the more sceptical I get)

PPP blew everyone else out of the water in Wisconsin and haven't been really off in any state so far.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520080218001

They were off by 25% in Georgia. But I already explained that I confused them with IA. Among other things...

[Gustaf]

I don't know why everyone is so convinced that this is a horrible poll that can't be accurate.  Obama won 55% in South Carolina and got 63% in Virginia.  Doesn't it make sense that he'd be somewhere in between there in a state thats in between those two?

That reasoning makes no sense to me, honestly. Since Arizona is between New Mexico and California it should be in between them, but it's more conservative than both. Etc.

In South Carolina I think the black electorate was a bigger player than it will be in North Carolina. And Virginia was an open primary in the midst of Obamania. I also believe Virginia has a larger suburban-urban Northern liberal vote than North Carolina has.