2021 Uganda Election (or electoral type event) - Jan. 14

[ottermax]

In a week Uganda will be holding it's presidential, parliamentary, and local elections.

Sadly, it appears that Uganda's elections this year are another example of the backslide of democracy and while it appears the process will still go forward the results seem mostly guaranteed to favor the ruling president Yoweri Museveni - ruling since 1986 longer than most Ugandans have been alive.

Uganda has some interesting electoral practices including a two-round presidential election process that has historically been relatively tightly contested between the NRM and an opposition party. Parliamentary elections require a slate of about 1/3 women candidates. Local elections will also be held (I have a friend and colleague running for local office).

Historically Museveni has had most electoral success in Western Uganda (mostly rural, but densely populated) and throughout Eastern Uganda (also rural and densely populated). Kizza Bisegye had run multiple times in close elections for President in 2006, 2011, and 2016, with support from parts of Northern Uganda and the greater Kampala metropolitan area.

In the past decade Uganda has made significant strides to reduce extreme poverty, improve infrastructure, and increase economic development. Museveni has also increasingly consolidated power, imprisoning the opposition repeatedly, using COVID to lockdown the country and suspend campaigning, and repeatedly limiting the ability for opposition lawmakers to campaign. Interestingly this year promised to be the most highly contested presidential election in history with very popular rap artist Bobi Wine (Robert Kyagulani) running for President under the National Unity Platform. In a youthful country where unemployment is catastrophically high, new leadership under a promising, popular new leader seemed like a fresh opportunity for change that could actually win. Given unpopular initiatives like the "social media tax" of 2018 which charged users of apps like Whatsapp and MobileMoney several cents per day of internet usage - in a country where most people still make less than $2 a day yet depend on mobile banking for most transactions. Needless to say, Museveni's government has made very unpopular decisions that haven't benefitted most people, but has managed to consolidate power very effectively.

Today Bobi Wine has petitioned the International Criminal Court to complain about violence against him and other opposition politicians and supporters.

I don't normally post new topics, so I'm sure I'm missing some information, but wanted to start this discussion about Uganda. I lived there for a bit and still stay connected with many friends and people on the ground so I'm happy to answer any questions.

[warandwar]

Thanks for starting this! This is a major, important election for sure. Bobi Wine won a by-election a few years back and M7 has been terrified of him. Unusually for a musician/poltician, he's a pretty decent artist. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6G9DfpKV_s). He's a real political genius, honestly. Uganda bans pre-election campaigning, so he holds concerts. He gets put under house arrest as a result, so he goes on Facebook live and live-composes a song about police brutality.

Ottermax, do you know if there has been any kind of equivalent to #EndSARS in Uganda? I know there is a quite oppressive SARS equivalent in Urban Uganda, the Crack Unit. Has Bobi Wine mentioned the Nigerian movement in his campaigning? From what I've heard, he's extremely light on policy (just vibes).

[ottermax]

I don't know much of any policy Kyagulani (Bobi Wine) has proposed other than general change, restoring democracy, and mentioning state violence. I doubt that most rural people know much about the #EndSARS in Uganda but the more educated, higher-income urban Kampala types might - they were already voting against Museveni though.

Social Media sites have now been blocked according to presidential directives as the election is about to begin. I guess it helps when the USA is dealing with its own insurrection to quietly take away freedoms...

I highly doubt NRM will be defeated given the circumstances. Campaigning has been impossible, and now the internet is effectively banned. I am struggling to keep in touch with local contacts given the "social media" block which includes most forms of communication such as Whatsapp. I will try to update what I can!

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

From what i've read, Bobi Wine seems like a sincere and (judging by the number of bodyguards and aides of his that were killed) brave man, but Museveri doesn't seem willing to give up power to anyone (other than his son, allegedly). It's sad, in Africa it seems to be one step forward and to steps back, for every sudan, malawi or tunisia, you get a mali, a zimbabwe or a libya.