Dave's Redistricting App

[muon2]

Ultra-VRA Alabama




AL1 (pop 665985): 76/18 white
AL2 (pop 665935): 69/25 white
AL3 (pop 665972): 76/18 white
AL4 (pop 666057): 86/6 white
AL5 (pop 665961): 75/18 white
AL6 (pop 665796): 77/16 white
AL7 (pop 666194): 79/17 black

Actually this is anti-VRA since it maximizes packing into 1 majority black district. Packing is generally disallowed when it prevents multiple minority districts from forming. Both Johnny Longtorso and I have versions with 2 majority black districts, and they presumably would have precedence under the VRA.

If you were to reduce the blue district to 51%-52% African-American, how might that tidy up the lines? Not that it isn't an impressively acceptable gerrymander as it is... Is there any way to trade the SE corner to that district so the yellow district doesn't extend that far south?

It's possible, but unfortunately my map didn't save in the app so I don't have it available to play around with.

My guess is that it would be hard to move the SE corner since Houston County is roughly 100 K. You would have to see what that does to your CD 2 percentages.

I took a look at the AL map on the App, and found a way to solve the SE corner issue, keep both black-majority CDs, and minimize county splits to make nicer district lines. All districts are within 200 persons of the ideal size. The Birmingham district is 57% black and the Montgomery-Mobile district is 52% black. CD 1 connects western Mobile County to the rest of the district through Dauphin Island and the ferry to Fort Morgan in Baldwin County.

[muon2]

But why doesn't it save me the files when I ask it ?

Saving the files is not as straightforward as one would like. The saved files are not jpg and they are in an obscure directory. I followed the help info given by the app which includes the location of the files, and then I used the map2jpg tool to make the images.

[muon2]

Here's a remap of CA with 53 districts using the 2008 data. All districts are within 1000 of the ideal population. There are 17 Hispanic-majority districts, 1 Asian-majority district and 1 Black-majority district. The other districts were drawn to maintain compactness and minimize county splits.



Zooming into LA:



Zooming into the Bay Area:



I'll let the local experts speculate on the partisan balance in these districts.

edit: maps modified to reflect some of the comments, including the addition of an Asian-majority district in and around San Jose, and modifying the northern part of LA county.

[muon2]

San Jose is split into three districts, and combining the coast between Santa Cruz and Half Moon Bay with Alviso, Milpitas and Fremont isn't a very good idea. But the rest o fthe Bay Area looks fine.

I adjusted San Jose but I still split it into 3 districts. I combined Cupertino, eastern Fremont, Milpitas and SE San Jose to create an Asian-majority district CD-16. It's just barely over 50%, so there wasn't much I could do about the shape. That puts all of Santa Cruz Co into CD-14 but that CD still has Newark and part of Fremont. Central San Jose adds to CD-17 as an Hispanic-majority district with 54%.

minor: why do you include the one channel island in cd 24 to San Luis Obispo and inland Ventura.  Connect it to cd23, which you have on the coast of Ventura.  I know it has, effectively, no population but it looks weird.

northern Santa Clara county.  cd 14, San Mateo, Alameda county connected to each other by some swamps and salt ponds.

Go ahead and give the eastern part of Santa Clara county in 16 to cd17.  both are rural areas and you're already in Santa Clara county with cd17.  somewhere like 500 people would be affected. most of it is state parkland or owned by the City of San Francisco for the Hetch Hetchy project. And the rest is ranchland.

I fixed the Ventura Co islands. I used your comment to connect CD-17 to the Hispanic areas of central SJ. The connection in CD-14 is on the border which I think includes the South Bay and Nimitz freeways.

Combining Lancaster with Glendale is similarly inadvisable.  I can't really tell what you did to LA in the absence of landmarks, and therefore can't comment thereon.

I didn't have a lot of good choices for Glendale in CD-25 without compromising the Hispanic districts CD-28 to the west or CD-31 to the south. I've edited the area to link Glendale to Santa Clarita and southern Palmdale. That put Lancaster and northern Palmdale with eastern Kern in CD-22. It also caused west Bakersfield to move to CD-24 linking it to SLO.



As I reviewed the LA area it seems that I could create an additional Hispanic-majority district by combining CD-32 (orange: Pico Rivera to Asuza) with either CD-29 (Montebello to Pasadena and Monrovia) to the west or CD-38 (Whittier to Glendora and Claremont) to the east then redividing into a northern and southern piece. Would one of these make more sense than the other?

[muon2]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

Where can I find the VRA rules?

Basically, the rule is that you can't dilute the minority presence in a majority-minority (at least 50.1% black or Hispanic) district. Coalition districts (say, one that was 40% black and 15% Hispanic) are not protected, however.

You also cannot pack minority votes into a district such that it would deny them an opportunity to elect candidates of their choice in more than that one district. For example a district with 90% minority next to one with 35% minority would likely be struck down since it is likely that two districts each with over 50% of the minority could be created.

[muon2]

Here is a map of NC with 14 districts(16EVs), (best map I could do with screen shot).



CD 1: (Blue): Has New Bern and Elizabeth City in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight to lean Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: G. K. Butterfield (D) )

CD 2: Dark Green: Has Goldboro, Kinston and Southern Wake County in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight Democratic to Lean Democratic range. Due to popular Congressman, Lean Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Bob Etheridge (D) )

CD 3: Purple: Has Greenville, Jacksonville and Wilmington in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the Slight to Strong Republican range. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Walter B. Jones (R) )

CD 4: Red: Has Chaple Hill, Durham and Northern Wake County in it. I'm sure this is strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: David Price (D) )

CD 5: Yellow: Wilkesboro, Lexington and Mount Airy are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Virginia Foxx (R) )

CD 6: Tealish color: Winston-Salem, High Point and Western Guilford County are in it. I believe this is somewhere in the Lean to Strong Democratic. Democratic Pick-up (Current Congressperson: None ) *Note Coble doesn't live in this district any more.*

CD 7: Grey: Lumberton and Fayetteville are in it. I believe this would be Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold  (Current Congressperson: Mike McIntyre (D) )

CD 8: Light Purple: Salisbury, Albemarle and Sanford are in it: I believe this is in the toss-up range. IToss-up (Current Congressperson: Larry Kissell (D) )

CD 9: Light Tealish: Southern Charlotte, Monroe and eastern Gastonia are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Sue Myrick (R) )

CD 10: Pink: Hickory, Statesville, Western Gasonia are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Patrick McHenry (R) )

CD 11: Lime: Asheville and Boone are in it: I believe this would be Slight Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Heath Shuler (D) )

CD 12: Light Blueish : Northern Charlotte and Concord are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Mel Watt (D) )

CD 13: Paleish Color: Raleigh and Cary are in it. I believe this would be in he Strong Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Brad Miller (D) )

CD 14: Dark Yellow: Western Guilford County, Burlington and Eden are in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the toss-up range: Toss-up (Current Congressperson: Howard Coble (R) ) *Note: If Howard Coble does run in 2012, he will win hands down. But when it's open it is toss-up*


Make up before Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 5 Republican Congressmember
Make up after Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 4 Republican Congressmebmeber, 2 toss-up CD.

What do you guys think about this? Good, bad?

You are assuming of course that NC gains a seat, which isn't currently projected. That said, it's a nice looking map but the loss of both black-majority seats would be fatal at the DOJ. NC is covered under the stringent review of section 5 of the VRA and retrogression is not legal. So some unusual line drawing will be needed to be in compliance.

[muon2]

I was thinking of doing a timeline in which Nixon refuses to resign and instead there was Constitutional change to dilute the presidency, ushering in a US Parliament. Anyway, I probably won't write it, but I've been using Dave's application and combined it with the suggestion from the cube root rule thread that the US would have 675 seats (and decided to give DC one of the 675 seats). I'm thinking I might turn it into a PM4E scenario. I can show you some of the maps I've drawn if anyone's interested. Since I don't like gerrymandering (and don't know internal state voting patterns anyway) I'm focusing predominantly on population equality with a secondary intention of not dividing counties (although that's more the case in some states than others), and I'm ignoring the VRA (since it's a scenario and since it's PM4E and elections rather than the more serious consequences of governance and minority representation). Anyway, if you're interested in seeing some of the maps I've drawn and perhaps guessing how they'd vote, I could start a new thread (so as to not clutter this one).

It sounds like an interesting project. A new thread would probably work best. However, I'm not sure if it fits better on the Elections What If board or better here. In any case if you are looking for advice, you should also define how close in population equality districts must be and what county splitting rules would be in effect. Since this happened after the 1960's I would expect the VRA to still apply.

[muon2]

Here is a map of NC with 14 districts(16EVs), (best map I could do with screen shot).



CD 1: (Blue): Has New Bern and Elizabeth City in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight to lean Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: G. K. Butterfield (D) )

CD 2: Dark Green: Has Goldboro, Kinston and Southern Wake County in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight Democratic to Lean Democratic range. Due to popular Congressman, Lean Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Bob Etheridge (D) )

CD 3: Purple: Has Greenville, Jacksonville and Wilmington in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the Slight to Strong Republican range. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Walter B. Jones (R) )

CD 4: Red: Has Chaple Hill, Durham and Northern Wake County in it. I'm sure this is strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: David Price (D) )

CD 5: Yellow: Wilkesboro, Lexington and Mount Airy are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Virginia Foxx (R) )

CD 6: Tealish color: Winston-Salem, High Point and Western Guilford County are in it. I believe this is somewhere in the Lean to Strong Democratic. Democratic Pick-up (Current Congressperson: None ) *Note Coble doesn't live in this district any more.*

CD 7: Grey: Lumberton and Fayetteville are in it. I believe this would be Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold  (Current Congressperson: Mike McIntyre (D) )

CD 8: Light Purple: Salisbury, Albemarle and Sanford are in it: I believe this is in the toss-up range. IToss-up (Current Congressperson: Larry Kissell (D) )

CD 9: Light Tealish: Southern Charlotte, Monroe and eastern Gastonia are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Sue Myrick (R) )

CD 10: Pink: Hickory, Statesville, Western Gasonia are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Patrick McHenry (R) )

CD 11: Lime: Asheville and Boone are in it: I believe this would be Slight Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Heath Shuler (D) )

CD 12: Light Blueish : Northern Charlotte and Concord are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Mel Watt (D) )

CD 13: Paleish Color: Raleigh and Cary are in it. I believe this would be in he Strong Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Brad Miller (D) )

CD 14: Dark Yellow: Western Guilford County, Burlington and Eden are in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the toss-up range: Toss-up (Current Congressperson: Howard Coble (R) ) *Note: If Howard Coble does run in 2012, he will win hands down. But when it's open it is toss-up*


Make up before Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 5 Republican Congressmember
Make up after Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 4 Republican Congressmebmeber, 2 toss-up CD.

What do you guys think about this? Good, bad?

You are assuming of course that NC gains a seat, which isn't currently projected. That said, it's a nice looking map but the loss of both black-majority seats would be fatal at the DOJ. NC is covered under the stringent review of section 5 of the VRA and retrogression is not legal. So some unusual line drawing will be needed to be in compliance.

I used the App to try to remake NC-1(The one with a black majorty) and it seems like it isn't at 50.1% anymore, but at 48-43 black majorty.

This is my version with 13 CDs.



Both CD 1 and 12 are just barely over 50%. Since the districts are smaller in population for 14 CDs they should be easier to make.

[muon2]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

Where can I find the VRA rules?

Basically, the rule is that you can't dilute the minority presence in a majority-minority (at least 50.1% black or Hispanic) district. Coalition districts (say, one that was 40% black and 15% Hispanic) are not protected, however.

Worst.  Law.  Ever.  BTW

By its very nature it ensures ridiculous gerrymandering, and it's positive effects for minority representation are highly questionable.  It often leads to the creation of a couple of districts with a 60 percent or greater minority presence when almost any redistricting without the rules would create several districts with 30 percent minority representation.  When you want to dilute the chances of an opposition party picking up more seats, you generally create as many districts with super-majorities of that parties voters as possible.  If your goal were to ensure the election of fewer black candidates, and lessen overall minority political power, then I couldn't think of a much better way to do so than the regulations of the VRA.

You'd probably still have to maintain at least a 40% black minority in order for black candidates to win in most of the South.  30% might be sufficient in some of the northern cities but Southern whites are nearly as polarized towards Republicans as blacks voters are towards Democrats.

The Gingles test requires an analysis of ethnic bloc voting. If that pattern is present and there is 50% in a compact area then the VRA requirements come into play. It's possible that some VRA districts don't currently have bloc voting that prevents the minority group from electing the candidate of their choice, but most mappers will err on the side of judicial safety by creating the district anyway.

[muon2]

The help link on the app actually worked pretty well for me. If you have any problems after those steps let me know and I'll try to fill in.

[muon2]

http://www.redstate.com/merrimackman/2009/12/05/maryland-2012-redistricting-map/

Red state has a redistricting plan using daves tool

I had put together a map of MD a couple of years ago based on 2010 projections. I adapted it to the 2008 data on the App to get the following map.



The districts are all within 100 persons of the ideal number, and were designed to minimize the number of split counties. There are Two majority Black districts. Using the voting data on the App, here's how they come out with the percentage of the two-party 2008 presidential vote:

CD-1 (blue) R+16
CD-2 (green) R+9
CD-3 (purple) R+3
CD-4 (red) D+41
CD-5 (yellow, 67% Black) D+73
CD-6 (teal) D+2
CD-7 (gray, 63% Black) D+76
CD-8 (lavender) D+48

[muon2]

I had put together a map of MD a couple of years ago based on 2010 projections. I adapted it to the 2008 data on the App to get the following map.



The districts are all within 100 persons of the ideal number, and were designed to minimize the number of split counties. There are two majority Black districts. Using the voting data on the App, here's how they come out with the percentage of the two-party 2008 presidential vote:

CD-1 (blue) R+16
CD-2 (green) R+9
CD-3 (purple) R+3
CD-4 (red) D+41
CD-5 (yellow, 67% Black) D+73
CD-6 (teal) D+2
CD-7 (gray, 63% Black) D+76
CD-8 (lavender) D+48

This is a great Republican gerrymander of Maryland. I would make CD-01 less Republican just to make the three remaining Republican-leaning/swing districts even more Republican.

The combination of majority-minority districts and minimizing county splits tends to help the GOP. I could have gone for a true pro-GOP gerrymander, but that wasn't the goal of the map. It was nice to see my CD-3 and 6 be highly competitive (partisan diff < 5) and CD-2 be reasonably competitive (< 10).

Note that TC's map below still has a heavy GOP lean in district 1, since it's hard to change it a lot without crossing the Chesapeake at Annapolis. Note that from a GOP view he's sacrificed the suburban Baltimore district to a D+11 while strengthening CD-6 to R+14 so it looks more like an incumbent protection map.

District 1 (blue): Obama 42%, McCain 56%
District 2 (green): Obama 47%, McCain 51%
District 3 (violet): Obama 54%, McCain 43%
District 4 (red): Obama 87%, McCain 12%. 65% black.
District 5 (yellow): Obama 72%, McCain 27%
District 6 (teal): Obama 42%, McCain 56%
District 7 (gray): Obama 86%, McCain 12%. 63% black.
District 8 (lavender): Obama 72%, McCain 27%

[muon2]

Movement is really hard in the program - it would be great if you could move simply by center-clicking and dragging.  Also, it would be nice if saving/loading was less complicated.

It is awkward to use compared to commercial redistricting tools. Beside the unusual pan and zoom controls, polygon captures are missing and that would speed up the task enormously. An undo would also be of great use.

[muon2]

I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516

I was bothered by the fact that the author of this reduced the minority levels so much in CD-15 that whites are the largest group by a significant amount, and then called it a VRA district. So I decided to retaliate with a VRA-based map that maximizes minority-majority districts.

In my map below I assume 28 districts and all are within 100 using 2008 data on the App. NYC has 8 districts with a single minority majority:

CD-16 (bright green - Bronx) 58% Hispanic.
CD-15 (orange - New York, Bronx, and some Queens) 51% Hispanic
CD-12 (blue - Kings, Queens, and a bit of New York) 51% Hispanic
CD-11 (lime green - Kings) 55% Black
CD-10 (magenta - Kings) 55% Black
CD-7 (grey - Bronx, Queens) 56% Hispanic
CD-6 (cyan - Queens, Nassau) 55% Black

and the drum roll please ...

CD-5 (yellow - Queens, New York, and Kings) 51% Asian



The majority-Asian CD-5 defines this map. It links Flushing in Queens to Chinatown in Manhattan and on to Sunset Park in Brooklyn. The other districts then work around that district. The other majority-minority districts maintain the largest group in the current CD.

I restricted the Staten Island district (CD-13) to cross into Brooklyn and that forced CD8 to run from lower Manhattan up to Yonkers, though CD-14 could have connected to Yonkers instead by crossing Central Park. On Long Island the constraints of CDs 5 and 6 forced CD3 (purple) to go from Coney Island out to Suffolk County along the Atlantic. The population shifts also caused CD-17 (dark blue-grey) to go from Westchester through Co Op City in the Bronx to cross at Throgs Neck and run along the Sound to NW Nassau.

Enjoy.

[muon2]

It's pretty cool you can make an Asian-majority district in New York. Can you see if you can make one in California?

I did one on this thread a while ago, but with so many pages, I'll repeat it. The three-lobed district in San Jose is majority-Asian.

Here's a remap of CA with 53 districts using the 2008 data. All districts are within 1000 of the ideal population. There are 17 Hispanic-majority districts, 1 Asian-majority district and 1 Black-majority district. The other districts were drawn to maintain compactness and minimize county splits.



Zooming into LA:



Zooming into the Bay Area:



I'll let the local experts speculate on the partisan balance in these districts.

edit: maps modified to reflect some of the comments, including the addition of an Asian-majority district in and around San Jose, and modifying the northern part of LA county.

[muon2]

The green district (where I live) is fascinating.

So far, that district in San Jose and adjacent areas and the one in NYC are the only two Asian-majority districts I've found. If that were the CA map in 2012, who do you think would win the district?

[muon2]

Can anyone create two black-majority districts in Virginia?

Definitely not possible. Creating one already requires severe gerrymandering.

Actually I tried it and was successful. Basically what you do is you take the black-majority precincts (and ones with a very large black minority) in Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake.  That gets you one black-majority district. Then you take the black majority precincts in Richmond and Henrico County, and precincts with a very large black minroity in Chesterfield, Nottoway, Dinwiddle, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Halifax, and Charlotte Countries and add the city of Danville. Also, you should stretch this district to Lynchburg or even Roanoke (even though just Lynchburg is fine) and you should get a second black-majority district.

Plurality, or majority? I have no doubt that you could get two 45% black districts that are 43% white. But 50% black seems highly unlikely.

I said majority, as in 50+% African American. I experimented with Dave's Redistricting App and managed to get 2 black majority districts. If you follow my directions you should get two as well.

I played around with it last night, and I also got two districts by separating Richmond from Norfolk/Newport News. CD3 (purple) is just over 50% and CD4 (red) is 53%. CD1 (blue) becomes a long snaky district from Prince William Co almost down to NC.

[muon2]

Actually I tried it and was successful. Basically what you do is you take the black-majority precincts (and ones with a very large black minority) in Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake.  That gets you one black-majority district. Then you take the black majority precincts in Richmond and Henrico County, and precincts with a very large black minroity in Chesterfield, Nottoway, Dinwiddle, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Halifax, and Charlotte Countries and add the city of Danville. Also, you should stretch this district to Lynchburg or even Roanoke (even though just Lynchburg is fine) and you should get a second black-majority district.

Plurality, or majority? I have no doubt that you could get two 45% black districts that are 43% white. But 50% black seems highly unlikely.

I said majority, as in 50+% African American. I experimented with Dave's Redistricting App and managed to get 2 black majority districts. If you follow my directions you should get two as well.

I played around with it last night, and I also got two districts by separating Richmond from Norfolk/Newport News. CD3 (purple) is just over 50% and CD4 (red) is 53%. CD1 (blue) becomes a long snaky district from Prince William Co almost down to NC.

That's a good map. Randy Forbes would probably choose to run in VA-02 in this scenario. However, you can make it neater by removing the top part (counties) of VA-04 (the red district) and adding areas of Henry County and Lynchburg that have large black populations (or just areas of Henry County). This would make your map somewhat neater.

Thanks. Having VA-04 go into either Lynchburg or Henry did not significantly change the Black percentages. Lynchburg only has two significantly Black precincts, so using it in VA-04 would require a split of the city. Henry is a little better, but it extends the line along the NC border more than I'd like. Cumberland was the better choice for me.

[muon2]

That's a good map. Randy Forbes would probably choose to run in VA-02 in this scenario. However, you can make it neater by removing the top part (counties) of VA-04 (the red district) and adding areas of Henry County and Lynchburg that have large black populations (or just areas of Henry County). This would make your map somewhat neater.

Thanks. Having VA-04 go into either Lynchburg or Henry did not significantly change the Black percentages. Lynchburg only has two significantly Black precincts, so using it in VA-04 would require a split of the city. Henry is a little better, but it extends the line along the NC border more than I'd like. Cumberland was the better choice for me.

In regards to Lynchburg and Henry, I am suggesting splitting the city/country so that the black areas go to the fourth district and that the white areas go to other congressional districts. I know that splitting countries/cities is not always desirable, but I think it is very effecient in these sorts of cases. There are many areas in Henry County with 50% or more black population, while there are none (I believe) in Cumberland County.

With the 2008 data the App has no majority black precincts in Henry, but there is one in Cumberland. Henry offers a link to Martinsville which has 2 heavily black precincts. To get to Martinsville requires a link across western Pittsylvania which has a relatively low black percentage. The net result is no better than going north as I did in my map.

Going to Lynchburg is fractionally better, but I think that the marginal improvement does not justify the extra splits.

[muon2]

Can someone create a minority-majority district in MA?

Tom Finneran proposed one in 2001. It involved connecting the minority-majority parts of MA-8 and Milton to Lynn. With 9 districts, it's probably impossible.

Isn't the current 8th minority-majority (even using year 2000 numbers)?

The current ACS estimates for MA have a black population of just under 400 K. A majority-black district would need at least 360-370 K in one district in 2010, so it isn't possible given the spread in the state.

The Hispanic population isn't much better with over 500 K spread across the state, and 360-370 need to be within one district.

[muon2]

I just made a majority-minority (not majority-black) district connecting most of Boston with parts of Quincy, Chelsea, Cambridge, and Somerville. It's 49% white, 21% black, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 2% other. This is with new population estimates and nine districts.

That makes sense, but as a coalition district it wouldn't count for the VRA. It also probably would not pass since MA has such a strong tradition of keeping towns intact as much as possible.

[muon2]

I tried to make a nine-district map with the assumption that Lynch was either in the above minority-majority district or sharing one with Delahunt. It got very ugly thanks to no incumbents living south of Quincy. It's a long way off, but is there any clue to a retirement or which incumbents might be forced into a primary?

Olver is getting up there in years and represents a part of the state with declining population and little political clout. The last two districts cut in '82 and '92 were from the western Boston suburbs and from the city of Boston, respectively, so the likelihood is that a western district will go. You can't really do two full districts west of the Worcester area any longer. I've tried, and I end up tethering the city of Worcester to towns far to the east or southeast.

When I looked at this in August, I cam to the conclusion that CD-2 would have to pick up Worcester.  Here's my post and map from then:

I had some time to play around with the tool this afternoon and looked at the map of MA using the 2008 data. I divided no town except for Boston as this is the primary goal of any MA map. All the districts are within 300 persons of the ideal size which is less than 0.1% maximum variation. I attempted to balance two secondary goals: to keep districts somewhat compact and to keep county fragments to a minimum.



Some items of interest compared to the current map which loses CD 10.

CD 1 picks up Springfield and loses the northern part.

CD 2 shifts east to pick up Worcester and Franklin County.

CD 3 becomes more compact and links the Fitchburg area to Framingham and Dedham.

CD 4 shifts south and east to take in the Cape and Islands from current CD 10.

CD 5 remains centered on Lowell and Lawrence, but dips south to the Woburn area.

CD 6 extends south all the way into the northern part of Boston including Beacon Hill.

CD 7 shifts south to pick up Newton, Brookline and the Allston-Brighton part of Boston.

CD 8 takes up the rest of Boston and the near south suburbs including Quincy.

CD 9 keeps Brockton, but otherwise extends across the south suburbs from RI to Mass Bay.

I'm sure a real map would divide Boston along different lines, but it does give a sense of how much the non-Boston districts would have to shift to pick up population.

[muon2]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

There's a map in the logo for Red Mass Group that has a number of towns colored red, presumably due to GOP support of some kind there. If I knew what the red specifically represented, I'd be happy to speculate on whether any districts in a neutral map like mine would have any hope for the GOP.

[muon2]

The Red Mass Group's FAQ says the red areas are where Kerry Healey or Healey plus Christy Mihos had more votes than Deval Patrick in the 2006 gubernatorial election.

Thanks. Based on that, it would seem that a modified version of MA-10 should be close. The area in MA-05 looks promising, except for the large population in Lowell and Lawrence.

[muon2]

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

The Constitution only requires a Representative to live in the state. For instance Bean does not live in IL-8, and IL does not place any requirements. Some states do require their US Reps to live in the specific district, but many believe that it is an unconstitutional requirement that would be thrown out if challenged. It is similar to the term limits imposed by some states that goes beyond the specific constitutional requirements and were rejected by the SCOTUS.

However, in those states that do have a residency requirement, serious candidates generally do not want the negative attention that would come from a challenge to their state's law. Thus the residency requirements tend to be effective even if unconstitutional.