Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

More PQ circular firing squads.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/28/01-4472425-pq-le-torchon-brule-entre-deux-presidents-regionaux.php

If the election were today: 88 CAQ, 27 PLQ, 8 PQ, 2 QS.

Why non-Francophones (IMO) won't go CAQ.

A) Continued infatuation with the Liberal brand name, both PLC and PLQ.

B) Domination of soft-progressivist (generic Liberal) ideology.

C) Dislike of school board abolition, as "only democratic institution controlled by Anglos" will disappear.

D) Among the older generation, a visceral fear/loathing of anything less than full-blown Trudeauvianism on the national issue. (Yes, I know the PLQ in no way meets that criteria- but still- only party that even comes close)

E) Dislike of conservatism (or anything smacking of it) generally.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/can-quebecs-new-party-win-over-non-francophones/article2251949/

[RogueBeaver]

If you'll be so kind, Sir Topham.

[RogueBeaver]

More PQ circular firing squads.

E) Dislike of conservatism (or anything smacking of it) generally.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/can-quebecs-new-party-win-over-non-francophones/article2251949/

I thought Anglos were generally more Conservative than the Francophone community.  After all many are fairly wealthy and while many went Liberal, they struck me as more your 905 type Liberals otherwise fiscally conservative and socially progressive as opposed to downtown Toronto types, left of centre favour activist government.

Most Tory support is in ROQ- that is, among Francophones. We did horribly on Montreal Island, excepting Lac St. Louis (star candidate) and Mount Royal (Israel). Did you read B)? When the non-Francophones in my social circle switched from the Grits, they went straight to the Dippers for ideological reasons. Besides, we humor soft nationalism and the Grits don't.

[RogueBeaver]

Daycare scandal: 25% of the places approved by the then-minister, Michelle Courchesne (now at Education) were defective and she overruled her officials' warnings. Auditor-General now blowing the whistle on it.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337339/garderies-la-selection-liberale-decriee

PQ backbencher predicts Charest victory and says there's a "Shy Sexism Factor" in his own riding.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/01/01-4473618-elections-le-pequiste-pinard-predit-une-victoire-de-charest.php

[RogueBeaver]

And the By-election might as well be over... if you read the Gazette:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+candidate+likely+winner+Monday+election+Bonaventure/5785230/story.html

The Greens are really trying to mess around in everyones business ain't they

We always knew that Arsenault (now there's a necromanced dynasty if I've ever seen one ) would win. If the PQ can up their vote share by 7-8% then that takes some pressure off Marois.

[RogueBeaver]

And the By-election might as well be over... if you read the Gazette:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+candidate+likely+winner+Monday+election+Bonaventure/5785230/story.html

The Greens are really trying to mess around in everyones business ain't they

We always knew that Arsenault (now there's a necromanced dynasty if I've ever seen one ) would win. If the PQ can up their vote share by 7-8% then that takes some pressure off Marois.

I'm rather impressed that QS has managed 9%, if in a rural Liberal riding they can pull 3 times what they did last time, you will see more QS members in L'Assemblee Nationale
Pour Quoi Regressist?

Khadir will probably get some company in the next Assembly IMO, but only in Montreal ridings like Gouin. QS is a splinter group for far-left, pur et durs Peqs. So yeah, they're regressive.

[RogueBeaver]

Now if only these people were a party, I'd vote for them. The PLQ, PQ and CAQ wants to tinker with the obsolete Orange Model, they (and the ADQ) want to jettison it and replace it with a Blue Model.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/30/barbara-kay-taking-down-quebecs-gouvernemaman/

[RogueBeaver]

Bump. Reminder that the Bonaventure polls close in a few hours. French media will have coverage.

[RogueBeaver]

Red meat for the Peq base.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337667/defense-du-francais-le-pq-veut-forcer-la-main-au-gouvernement-charest

[RogueBeaver]

http://monvote.qc.ca/partielles/en/resultatsPreliminaires.asp

[RogueBeaver]

From the wild swings, it seems than the riding is quite polarized.

If the Peqs underperform from 2008, we'll see another wave of anti-Marois sentiment within caucus. One of those defectors said 10 were reportedly waiting to jump ship, waiting only on tonight's results (which I'll believe when I see, and in any case it won't save them from the Purple Crush).

[RogueBeaver]

4-5 point improvement over '08. Status quo within the PQ caucus for now.

[RogueBeaver]

64-29 in 2008, and that was the PQ's high tide of the decade province-wide. Right now it's 50-37, which helps Marois in the short-medium term if these results hold.

[RogueBeaver]

8 pt improvement for the PQ over '08, PLQ under 50. So she'll be spinning a moral victory for the next while.

[RogueBeaver]

Marois: I'm unafraid of criticism at the upcoming National Council meeting.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337896/conseil-national-du-parti-quebecois-marois-ne-craint-pas-les-debats-sur-son-leadership

sh**t like this is why the PLQ needs at least two terms in opposition.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337881/turcot-sera-construit-dans-le-meme-mode-que-le-pont-champlain-il-y-a-50-ans

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals are still going on the economy and slamming Legault as a crypto-separatist.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/quebec/charest-to-seek-fourth-term/article2266824/

[RogueBeaver]

Somebody in my family says that her home province is stupid, she'll be proved correct if they reelect the Mafia King St. John the Baptist.

Is the Platitude King who destroyed our K-11 system any better? I think not.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest's running on a strategy that doesn't work anymore (and is borrowed from the Pelciquistes) and a federally negotiated trade deal which will not be signed before the election. Plus his own chief ripoff of Dief's Vision which no one gives a hoot about outside Pelquiste circles.

[RogueBeaver]

ADQ-CAQ merger could be announced this week.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/11/01-4476829-la-fusion-entre-la-caq-et-ladq-est-pratiquement-conclue.php

Khadir wants a QS caucus of 5.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/11/01-4476811-khadir-veut-faire-elire-cinq-deputes-aux-prochaines-elections.php

Curzi moving closer to Option Nationale.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338120/pierre-curzi-se-rapproche-d-option-nationale

[RogueBeaver]

Merger details: ADQ becomes the founding CAQ caucus with Deltell as parliamentary leader. PQ defectors will be welcomed but not poached.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338293/fusion-consommee-pour-la-caq-et-l-adq

Charest: ADQ is "marrying a poll."

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338283/l-adq-fusionne-avec-un-sondage

Also, read in the Gazette today that Legault is adamantly opposed to loosening the workplace provisions in Loi 101. No surprise there, and equally unsurprising that the Anglo business leaders are sticking with the Grits.

[RogueBeaver]

Also, read in the Gazette today that Legault is adamantly opposed to loosening the workplace provisions in Loi 101.

Why he would commit suicide with Franco voters?

He probably knows it's good economics but bad politics.

[RogueBeaver]

Also, read in the Gazette today that Legault is adamantly opposed to loosening the workplace provisions in Loi 101.

Why he would commit suicide with Franco voters?

He probably knows it's good economics but bad politics.

But he doesn't care. Legault is a empty guy running on an empty program.
Only vague ideas, nothing concrete.

Voters don't seem to care either. They wanted old-new in May and they want old-new now. It's a lamentable state of affairs, but the other options aren't much better. Personally I've already resolved to just stay home on E-Day- barring an unexpected CAQ breakthrough with Anglos my riding will still be Liberal (Weil's my MNA) regardless.

[RogueBeaver]

Expect the results will be overwhelmingly pro-merger. I mean really, what other choice is there? As for the election date, no idea. Charest could wait until 2013, but he adhered to the 4 +/- 1 month rule even in '07 when his poll numbers were crappy. As I said earlier, depends if he wants to preempt Charbonneau or avoid the appearance of panic by waiting another full year. It won't be January 2013 for obvious reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

We know the PQ has internal problems when they return to the language well.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/15/01-4478259-pauline-marois-veut-reecrire-la-loi-101.php

CROP: CAQ would win 100 seats and 39% were an election held today.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/15/01-4478363-sondage-une-centaine-de-sieges-pour-la-caq.php

CAQ will contest Argenteuil.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/16/01-4478667-la-caq-veut-detroner-le-plq-dans-argenteuil.php

[RogueBeaver]

All Charest's best ministers are scrambling for the nearest exit. Rats, sinking ship, etc.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338713/vague-de-departs-en-vue-au-plq