Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

Budget comes down 2 weeks from today.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/06/01-4503024-budget-bachand-le-20-mars.php

[RogueBeaver]

You'll have at least 6 weeks, if not more. I wouldn't expect dissolution before late April at the earliest.

[RogueBeaver]

A strong minority then. Plus she leads in PMP for the first time in eons.

[RogueBeaver]

Doubtful they'll get it this year.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/09/01-4504260-loqlf-veut-plus-de-muscle-pour-proteger-le-francais.php


Pope is Catholic, etc.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/09/01-4503847-jean-charest-defend-les-policiers.php

More Plan Nord stuff. It's good economically but not something to run on in an election year.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/344618/plan-nord-la-grande-seduction-des-universites

[RogueBeaver]

A new Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf

PQ: 33%
PLQ: 28%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
GRN: 4%
ON: 2%

PQ is near majority with those numbers.

lol at CAQ

Yeah. Charest needs them to do better if he wants a shot. Sort of like 1944 when the Bloc Populaire nearly denied Duplessis his comeback. Or more recently, the '07 ADQ surge which took enough nationalist votes to push the PQ into 3rd.

[RogueBeaver]

All I can say is :mad:

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120314/pq-claims-halal-meat-slams-against-quebec-values-120314/20120314?hub=TorontoNewHome

No goodies in this budget.

http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/economie/quebec/201203/14/01-4505323-budget-bachand-feu-vert-au-regime-de-retraite-pour-tous.php

[RogueBeaver]

Read up on the whole "reasonable accomodation" debate in 2006-7 that shaped the 2007 election. While mostly confined to the PQ, it is by no means exclusive. Not that long ago the National Assembly unanimously passed burka ban legislation despite there being (according to the major Muslim community organizations) less than 200 women in the province who wear them. I'll simplify a bit and say "defending traditional culture under the guise of secular social liberalism" summarizes most of it.

[RogueBeaver]

Can't say I disagree. This sort of gang-up disgusts but does not surprise me in the least. Where are the people like Levesque, Godin and Ryan when you need them?

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/03/16/barbara-kay-quebec-values-means-no-blessings-for-chickens/

[RogueBeaver]

Good. She threw that asshole over the side.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20120316/Pierre-Curzi-retire-politics-120316/

[RogueBeaver]

4 point spread isn't enough for a majority.

Budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/21/01-4507639-en-route-vers-des-elections.php

Poll.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/20/01-4507629-marois-poursuit-sur-sa-lancee.php

[RogueBeaver]

4 point spread isn't enough for a majority.

Budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/21/01-4507639-en-route-vers-des-elections.php

Poll.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/20/01-4507629-marois-poursuit-sur-sa-lancee.php

Must I remember than PQ got a majority in 1998 while losing popular vote?

True. '94 was also a tie... so more accurately, 4 isn't a slam-dunk.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with Wells- Charest has to dissolve in the next 2-3 months, before Charbonneau gets underway in the fall. Probably the most anti-PLQ environment since 1976.

[RogueBeaver]

The public is losing sympathy as these strikes grow increasingly violent. Nor should Charest negotiate with a mob. Rates should be the same as they are in English Canada.

[RogueBeaver]

The minority vote is what keeps the PLQ alive- their share of the Francophone vote is rather small but highly concentrated. That's why they're still competitive.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest caved. Pathetic, but then again he's been doing that since those strikes 8-9 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Simard is retiring.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/06/27/004-parti-quebecois-demissions.shtml

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the article. MacMillan is also retiring, but the Liberals have found a candidate to replace him in Papineau.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/10/01-4542539-elections-aux-urnes-le-4-septembre.php

[RogueBeaver]

Fun fact: 1994 was the last September election we had. It was also the last time a majority Liberal government went down in flames.

[RogueBeaver]

McMillan confirms his retirement.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/11/01-4542703-plq-norm-macmillan-confirme-son-depart.php

Chantal Hebert's take on possible scenarios.

http://www.lactualite.com/politique/chantal-hebert/archive/predictions-estivales-le-quebec-en-mode-electoral?page=0,1

[RogueBeaver]

I have trouble deciding which of the 5 scenarios will happen. I feel anything can happen.

In case some didn't know about the 2008 election results according to the 2012 ridings, you can find them at this location. It is a pdf, maybe it exists in other format and since I can't post links you have to add the www before

electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

Looks more like a minority at this stage but anything can happen.

[RogueBeaver]

Some close ridings to watch.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/12/01-4542900-elections-tout-peut-arriver.php

Student protesters gear up.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/conflit-etudiant/201207/11/01-4542883-apres-la-greve-les-elections.php

[RogueBeaver]

They stuck with him in '93, they'll stick with him now.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1226136--hebert-sherbrooke-will-be-ground-zero-in-charest-s-battle-to-remain-quebec-premier

[RogueBeaver]

Can anyone give me a summary of the Quebecois parties?

Liberal: Centre-something, the "something" depends on your ideological perception. Firmly federalist.

PQ: Social democratic/progressive/centre-left depending on who you talk to, sovereigntist.

CAQ: Centre-right. They claim to be agnostic on the national question but in practice agnosticism means tacitly federalist.

QS: A more left-wing, hardcore sovereigntist breakaway from the PQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Again, everyone who's anyone has left this government.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/16/01-4543879-pas-delections-pour-michelle-courchesne-et-monique-gagnon-tremblay.php

[RogueBeaver]

CAQ candidate in Chomedey dropped for accusing separatists of racism on Twitter.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/355161/la-caq-limoge-un-candidat

Carres rouges weigh their options.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/as-quebec-election-looms-protesters-weigh-voters-wrath/article4434653/

6 ridings to watch.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/charests-fate-in-quebec-election-comes-down-to-these-six-ridings/article4435182/