Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

Charest: no election before mid-May. We haven't had a summer election since 1966. Duplessis was famous for always picking a summer date, usually in mid-month/week.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/10/01-4494776-pas-delections-avant-la-mi-mai-promet-charest.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

[RogueBeaver]

Baloney.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/10/01-4494809-enquete-sur-les-fuites-au-spvm-charest-dit-que-les-medias-nont-rien-a-craindre.php

No one cares.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342448/d-ici-les-prochaines-elections-jean-charest-met-le-paquet-sur-le-plan-nord

[RogueBeaver]

Yet again, Charest insults his electorate's intelligence. At least be up front about one of Quebec politics' biggest and oldest open secrets. Far worse are the Peladeaus, especially now that PK has taken the role of "chief Anglo-baiting RL troll" for himself. Since Charest said "the election won't be called before Apr. 22", he basically confirmed there will be an election this summer...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/charest-denies-wealthy-desmarais-family-has-influenced-government-policy/article2334653/

[RogueBeaver]

Come on guys, push this through before the election.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/graeme-hamilton-plan-for-english-immersion-hits-bumps-in-quebec/

[RogueBeaver]

Then you improve teacher training. Both public systems desperately need an overhaul, especially the French one given the disparity in results. Marois and Legault coauthored that "reform" (which I escaped by the skin of my teeth) so IMO neither of them have any credibility whatsoever on education. This is a policy conversation I'd like to see in the election, but instead we'll get mudslinging and vague platitudes. Perhaps the trickiest part is addressing the English-French performance disparity, especially in high schools- because the usual suspects on both sides will be itching to start a language war.

[RogueBeaver]

A very low opinion, for similar reasons to yours: dumbing down and occasionally over-complexifying the simple. Math being perhaps the perfect example.

[RogueBeaver]

CAQ denied official party status by the Speaker. IIRC the requirement is 12, like the HoC, but I could be wrong.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342680/assemblee-nationale-la-caq-n-est-pas-reconnue

Citizen ballot initiatives again- I never thought the PQ would be so keen on adopting American ideas about direct democracy (which I personally deplore no matter the ballot question).

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342764/marois-balise-le-recours-aux-referendums-d-initiative-populaire

[RogueBeaver]

Fall is too late and spring is too soon. Summer it is.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/15/01-4496440-un-scrutin-avant-lete-est-peu-probable.php

[RogueBeaver]

Haven't found it anywhere, but A-T isn't where they need to be leading. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see the PQ leading within the MoE overall.

[RogueBeaver]

Huge MoE = garbage. Nonetheless, I'd be curious to see how that translates in seat terms.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ leads in Quebec, PLQ here in Montreal. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can plug these into their models if they have some time...

[RogueBeaver]

I know everyone will pile on me... but That Place projects a PQ minority. Mainly because urban Quebec is divided and rural Quebec united.

[RogueBeaver]

Not really. CAQ had its honeymoon, and it looks less attractive on the second look. Plus we're due for a change anyways- no incumbency has lasted longer than 9 years since 1960. I always thought they made a mistake in continually passing her over. The "rebellion" was a bunch of malcontents who have personal beefs with her taking advantage of weak poll numbers. Now they'll all lose their seats...

Tommy: CAQ was a trend, not the first Quebec trend either federally or provincially to fade. They're a one-man band without original policies or even noteworthy candidates.

Two Montreal seats worth watching: L'Assomption (McKay v. Legault) and Gouin (Francoise David is running).

[RogueBeaver]

No. This is a 3-way race which anyone can win. Potentially the seat winner isn't the popular vote winner (as in '66). All the Indies look headed to defeat. If any survive, it will be either Lapointe, Curzi or Beaudoin.

[RogueBeaver]

If Charest wins again, he'll join Gouin, Taschereau, Duplessis and Bourassa in the four-term club. Though they all won majorities... so he'll be forever a noob there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/charest-is-still-the-man-go-figure/article2342454/

Charest fishing for left-wing votes is a first.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343182/patients-diriges-vers-le-prive-bolduc-en-saisit-le-college-des-medecins

Yawn.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343180/droits-de-scolarite-plus-de-30-000-etudiants-sont-en-greve

If she does that she'll blow her nascent recovery.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/19/01-4497511-marois-veut-remettre-la-souverainete-a-lavant-plan.php

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with you on Barrette, if not the policy. Everyone knows the CHA has been dead in all but name for eons. Heck, even Peggy Nash admitted as much a couple of weeks ago. Why Charest is making a tactical ploy to her left is beyond me.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest has missed his window. The earliest dissolution by his own timetable would be immediately after the budget passes. I for one am eager for these hearings to start.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-dans-la-construction/201202/21/01-4498212-la-commission-charbonneau-tiendra-une-premiere-seance-en-mai.php

Did anyone else figure Bachand for a Turner-like figure?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/21/01-4498107-vie-privee-apres-toews-bachand.php

Good. We should start building nuke plants again, albeit properly.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/environnement/201202/20/01-4497987-la-ministre-boulet-veut-renover-gentilly-2.php

[RogueBeaver]

PQ is still centre-left.

[RogueBeaver]

PCQ is totally irrelevent.

Agreed. Legault could also be marginalized because he has great difficulty communicating in either official language, and Charest is, as Ian MacDonald never fails to remind us, the best retailer of his generation.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger: PQ 30, PLQ 29, CAQ 26, QS 8.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/22/01-4498820-marois-rebondit.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

[RogueBeaver]

What should alarm Liberals the most is that they have less than 20% of Francophone voters. PQ is drawing votes from the CAQ and QS, but IMO the winner will need 35-37% PV to form governmnet.

[RogueBeaver]

QS unveils some candidates.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499935-quebec-solidaire-devoile-16-candidats.php

If there was a window, he missed it.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/25/01-4499714-la-vitesse-un-gros-risque-pour-charest.php

I'd expect he'll dissolve shortly after the budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499893-rumeurs-delections-lopposition-sactive.php

[RogueBeaver]

Definitely an outlier.

[RogueBeaver]

Lapointe is retiring.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/04/004-retrait-politique-lisette-lapointe.shtml


As is LeMay, but Marois snagged a star candidate in St. Marie-St. Jacques.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/344263/circonscription-pequiste-de-sainte-marie-saint-jacques-lemay-part-breton-arrive

[RogueBeaver]

Won't go anywhere, but might stir up a language battle.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/national/201203/06/01-4502973-huntingdon-conteste-la-loi-101-une-politique-raciste.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

Dissolution in early May?

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/06/002-budget-provincial-raymond-bachand-annonce-date-depot.shtml