Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Juan Carlos should be prosecuted. But Felipe is innocent and he shouldn't paid for his father's crimes.

I heard some people stating this the same opinion, including members of my family. The issue is that, even if Felipe is not personally responsible (I have no reasons to think he is guilty, but he had knowledge of his father's behaviour before it surfaced), he represents a dynasty and an hereditary institution. I'm not saying he should pay for his father, but I think there exists an institutional responsibility and he should take more resolute actions for the sake of the continuity of constitutional monarchy. For instance, Felipe could take the initiative in the reform of the institution he embodies. Rightwing parties could not oppose a constitutioonal amendment if the king is supporting reforms

Apparently the popularity of King Felipe and the support for monarchy are higher now than months before, even though the approval rate of Juan Carlos is abysmal. My impression is that there are issues much more pressing than monarchy vs republic in the reyes of public opinion.  However, ir would be a mistake thinking that secrecy and legal onviolability can continue. Also, the monarchy continues being divisive across ideological and territorial* lines and the Spanish Right is doing no favors to the king

*Felipe is very unpopular in Catalonia and this is a huge problem for him

To be fair, given its origins and all the events that have happened in Spain since circa 2007; any king is going to be deeply unpopular in Catalonia/Basque Country as well as among many parts of the Spanish left (99% of UP and at least 50% of PSOE)

The king (much like the 1978 consensus) isn't going to have the sky high approval ratings it used to have in the 90s and 00s.

[Former President tack50]

To be honest given how he has been the face of the Covid response, I think Illa is a bad candidate. Under normal circumstances the Healthcare ministry would be a good pick, but not during a pandemic. And Spain is not exactly a country that can be proud of its response to Covid, we are literally on par with Donald Trump's US in terms of being bad at handling Covid in terms of numbers.

I guess opinions like this must not be too common given PSC has replaced Iceta with Illa, but still Iceta seems like the better pick to me.

The best pick may have been to just pick a random PSC backbencher; or better yet some high-profile mayor from one of the suburbs of Barcelona.

[Former President tack50]

The issue with regional elections in Catalonia (specially since 2012) is that they haven't been fought on the ideological axis. Rather they have been contests focused on the sovereigntist process, between supporters and opponents of the Catalan independence. The 2017 election in particular came after the events in autumn 2017 (unilateral attempt of seccession) that led to the temporary suspension of the regional autónomy. Unlike the general elections, the most obvious bloc division for me is pro-independence (JxCAT, ERC, CUP) vs constitutionalist* (Cs, PSC, PP). Caralunya en Comu-Podem would be un no-man's land on this axis, as they represent a "third way" .

I could do a map of "Unionists" v. "Separatists" using the blocs you outlined. I just don't know about excluding CatComu-Podem.

Most Spanish news media tends to exclude CatComu, and treats them as their own thing, just too weak to win anywhere. I think that is the most accurate way to place them too

Maybe you can try and make clear the "plurality secessionist/unionist" vs "majority secessionist/unionist" areas

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, that poll is impressive and very bad for PSOE/UP and especially good for Vox. Worth noting Asturias is the last "culturally Castillian" region that still votes to the left of Spain at large. I wonder if the Asturian domino will fall in 2023 or whenever, much like the Andalusian one fell in 2019.

For what is worth national polling shows a slightly better picture for the left though. In the popular vote it is down by roughly 46-40; however, that only translates to 169 seats or so for the right, compared to 137 for the left. Here is a recent Sociométrica poll for example:



That is very bad for the left, but still short of what would be needed for a conservative working majority. This isn't 1996 anymore so for the Spanish right it is "176 or bust". Parties like Junts, PNV or even CC and TEx are probably not going to support the right.

As of now, opinion polling would make it a near certainty that Spain would see a repeat election. The right would lack a majority and a left wing government would need to involve Junts; and I can't see the Puigdemont cult even abstaining, let alone voting yes.

Of course, that assumes that polls are 100% accurate, which they won't be. A right wing majority under current polling would probably have something like a 40% chance of happening; even a small polling error in its favour would do it; while a polling error in favour of the left wouldn't exactly mean an easy Sanchez victory.

[Former President tack50]

As someone who'd definitely support PSC in Catalonia, that poll is 100% wishful thinking

GESOP / El Periódico polls do indeed tend to be very rosy for the socialists. Back in 2017 they predicted PSC would only narrowly trail Cs for instance. El Periódico, while a decent newspaper in some aspects, is extremely biased towards PSC-PSOE and that translates to its polls*

^{*: Worth noting that a newspaper's editorial bias does not always translate to its polls. La Razón and ABC are both quite right wing, PP supporting newspapers for instance. But while La Razón's pollster (NC Report) tends to be rather rosy for PP, ABC's pollster (GAD3) tends to be the most accurate in Spain. Or for a left wing example, La Sexta is a TV station with a heavy left wing bias, but its polls (Invymark) are reasonably fair and accurate.}

[Former President tack50]

Didn't the Basque and Galician elections get delayed by a lot anyways? I fail to see what is the big issue here, especially not juridically like the Spanish government / PSOE is claiming

Just do the same that was done in the Basque Country and Galicia.

[Former President tack50]

World elections according to CIS, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Come to think about it, Puigdemont was a pioneer in terms of telematic interventions

Before Covid telematic stuff was seen as "oh look at Puigdemont trying to do a rally via Skype from Belgium" while now it is normalized lol

[Former President tack50]

I'm sorry to inform Josep Sort that Catalans are, in fact, Spaniards.

I wonder if he meant just Castilians or all non-Catalans though. I have always wondered whether different Spanish regionalist movements and non-Castilian regional identities have resentment towards each other.

For what is worth, Catalan nationalists and Basque nationalists (and to a lesser extent, Galician nationalists) have good relations between them

ERC and Bildu are certainly very friendly between them.

[Former President tack50]

As I always try to do, here is a list of all the election posters for the 2021 Catalan elections, as well as the various campaign slogans.

ERC: Al costat de la gent (Alongside the people)



Junts: Junts per fer, Junts per ser (Together to do, Together to be)



Cs: Para que ganemos TODOS (so that EVERYONE wins)

(Huge image that breaks the site, so it gets inside a spoiler tag)

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PSC: Fem-ho (Let's do it)

(huge image that breaks the site, gets inside spoiler tag)

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CUP: Per guanyar (To win)



En Comú Podem: El canvi que Catalunya mereix (The change that Catalonia deserves)



PP: Una Cataluña mejor (A better Catalonia)

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Not sure if the emoji appears in the actual campaign posters or not but it is hilarious

Vox: Recuperem Catalunya (Take back Catalonia)




Interesting things to note:

1) ERC has plenty of posters for the different ERC members of the regional cabinet and other high profile figures. I took the main poster (with candidate Pere Aragones)

2) Junts seems to have backed down on the Puigdemont mania, though there are still plenty of campaign materials with Puigdemont

3) PSC's election posters seem very bland and boring to me

4) For the first time ever, CUP does some personality based posters. Because of their non-hierarchical structure and strict term limits; CUP always went with posters without the main candidate in them

5) WTF was PP thinking with that emoji? By the way, their Twitter header is just as bad or even worse

6) Surprisingly, Vox has decided to use their slogan in Catalan, instead of Spanish.

[Former President tack50]

I don't have a great opinion of any of these campaign posters. Quite possibly the best, in terms of graphic design, is the Junts affiche ("Laura Presidenta")

Thanks for the pics, but I miss the PDeCAT poster with Angels Chacón

Interestingly, I don't think the Junts one is all that good. My favourite (or more accurately, least bad) might be the Vox and ERC ones to me. Vox is perhaps a bit too repetitive given they always use that style for almost everything, but still looks good to me. ERC is the best and has a fairly imaginative design; though I think they should use a darker shade of yellow

Per requested, here is a PDeCat poster:

PDeCat: Si t'ho penses, PDeCat (if you are thinking about it, PDeCat)

[Former President tack50]

Not sure if Velasco already mentioned it, but courts have ruled that the election will be on the 14th of February, for sure now.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/elecciones-catalunya/20210129/fiscalia-tsjc-fecha-elecciones-catalanas-11484508

[Former President tack50]

Here is a very interesting report on the electorates of the different parties for the upcoming Catalan elections

https://www.naciodigital.cat/noticia/215437/perfil-votant-quins-son-mes-formats-rics-envellits-amb-mes-funcionaris

My summary:

By gender: PSC and (surprisingly) PDECat have a rather feminized electorate, while as you may expect, the radical parties of CUP on one side and Vox on the other have very masculine electorates. All the other parties are essencially 50-50.

By age: Again as you may expect the parties that rely the heaviest on young voters are UP and CUP; but interestingly also Vox. On the opposite end, the oldest electorates are those of PP, PDECat and to a lesser extent Junts and PSC

By rural vs urban: The parties that have their biggest bases in small municipalities (under 10k people) are as you may expect the secessionists of ERC, Junts and PDECat. Interestingly, Vox has the biggest rural base among unionists. On the opposite end of the scale, the most Barcelona city heavy electorates are those of Comuns, Cs, PP and CUP.

By (self identified) religion: The most devoutly Catholic electorates are those of PP, PDECat, Cs and to a lesser extent Junts and PSC. There are 2 parties that stick out a lot by having extremely secular electorates, CUP and Comuns.

As for minor religions, most evangelic/protestant heavy parties are the unionist parties of PP, PSC, Cs and Vox. Most muslim heavy parties meanwhile are surprisingly PSC and PP. Though I imagine these two must have very small sample sizes

By education: 3 parties stick out for having bases that are extremely heavily reliant on uneducated voters, with only a year 10 education or less: PP, PSC and Vox. On the opposite end of the scale, CUP's electorate is by far the most college educated one; it's not even close

By income: The parties most reliant on poor voters is PSC by far, followed by PP and Vox. The ones with the richest voters are Junts, but interestingly also CUP (parents' cash?)

[Former President tack50]

1. So well-off Catalans are separatists and poorer ones are unionists? Shocked, shocked I tell you. Who could have guessed?

2. How many Evangelicals live in Spain exactly? And are they particularly overrepresented in Catalonia?

1) Well yes and no. Poor Catalans are unionists indeed. However, the super super rich Catalans (literally the 1%) are also unionists, the richest precincts in Catalonia give PP/Cs their best results in the region.

However yeah, the average unionist is poorer than the average secessionist. This is a 2017 poll but shows the point pretty well. Note how secessionism peaks on the "Upper middle class" before dipping down slightly among the wealthiest (and how people who don't want to disclose their income lean heavily unionist)



2) If I am not mistaken, somewhere around 1% of Spain's population is evangelical or protestant; and that number rises to around 2% in Catalonia. However they are just such a small sample size that I would not trust the numbers much

[Former President tack50]

Since many will want one as well, here is one of the classic "Who should you vote for?" tests for the Catalan election. Only available in Spanish and Catalan unfortunately

https://politigram.cat/

I am not sure if the GIFs make it the best or the worst such test ever I genuinely recommend that even if Google translate breaks the test, you should still take it only to watch the cringe GIFs

Here are my results for reference:

[Former President tack50]

Apparently Junts is now identifying in some election posters as "Democratic Socialists". Can't wait for Bernie Sanders to attend a Junts rally any time now



Yes, the poster is real

[Former President tack50]

Well, is not Junts itself but Moviment de Esquerres which is technically a different party running on Junts lists. They used to run with ERC.

Ah ok, that makes more sense then

[Former President tack50]

Looks like there are a lot of polls being de facto released after the legal ban on polls.  If so what is the point of this law ?

In the modern age? There really isn't a point, and parties have sometimes talked about repealing it but it isn't really worth it.

Back in the day it was meant to have people decide their vote without any opinion polling, but rather people choosing the party genuinely on their merits and avoiding tactical voting.

However, in recent times it has become a trend to either publish "The Andorran fruit shop that predicts the Catalan elections"; or alternatively to simply just publish polls in foreign media (El Periodic d'Andorra, or some Scottish nationalist publications)

[Former President tack50]

Historically I believe Spain does have exit polls although some of them are, as you say, predictions based on last minute polling.  I was asking mostly in the context of the rules this year seems to be the last your of voting is reserved for those under quarantine which I imagine could delay or even cancel exit polls. 

Like you say, Spain did indeed use to have "proper" exit polling. However, after it failed miserably twice in a row in 2015 and 2016; Spanish news media decided to drop traditional exit polling.

Here is the 2016 exit poll, compared to the real 2016 results to see just how miserably it failed

Instead, we started getting just good old regular telephone polls that were performed outside the legal period and published on election night. Though tbh I don't think they add much compared to the Andorra or Scotland based polls and are susceptible to the exact kinds of mistakes that regular polling can have.

[Former President tack50]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

[Former President tack50]

What does our Spanish posters' gut feeling say today, on election day?

Also, at which hour do polling stations close?

Polling stations will close at 20:00 local time, but results are expected to take longer to come in than usual. Still Spain tends to count ballots very fast so by midnight we should have upwards of 99% of the vote counted if all things go to plan.

My gut feeling (though I've had this the entire campaign) is that PSC will underperform and Junts will overperform but that's not really based on anything and I have not paid too much attention.

[Former President tack50]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

Ohhh... I see. I thought mail voting in Spain was American like. And I thought that the "quarantine" vote in Portugal, last January, was weird and complicated, forget about that, it wasn't that bad now. There was no change of the laws in order to ease voting, then?

Compared to the Basque/Galician elections last summer yeah there have been no changes whatsoever.

Compared to pre-COVID times the main differences seem to be

a) You don't need to physically go to a post office to request to vote by mail; you can instead do that online
b) You no longer need to physically sign a document to verify that you received your ballots
c) Instead of physically going to the post office to deliver your ballot, you can just give it to the mailman when he gives you your ballots.

[Former President tack50]

Hmm... you cannot even put the ballot in the mail box? It has to be delivered personally to the mailman, right?

Yeah, in order to verify your identity you need to give the ballot to the mailman; whether when he gets to your house, or by you physically going to the post office.

You can't just simply put a ballot in the mail box.

[Former President tack50]

Right now is the intended turn for Covid infected people to vote. Therefore if you are curious, this is how polling stations look right now

[Former President tack50]

What does our Spanish posters' gut feeling say today, on election day?

Also, at which hour do polling stations close?

Polling stations will close at 20:00 local time, but results are expected to take longer to come in than usual. Still Spain tends to count ballots very fast so by midnight we should have upwards of 99% of the vote counted if all things go to plan.

My gut feeling (though I've had this the entire campaign) is that PSC will underperform and Junts will overperform but that's not really based on anything and I have not paid too much attention.

Looking forward to an eventful evening, then. The mail votes are counted together with the regular votes, I suppose?

And I hope your gut feeling is wrong (actually given what I know about your politics you should hope it is wrong as well - are you a pessimist now?).

I have always been a pessimist Hoping I am proven wrong though! Here is my prediction (which I made like a week ago and haven't bothered to update):

Junts: 34
ERC: 32
PSC: 26
Cs: 15
Comuns: 9
CUP: 7
Vox: 7
PP: 5
PDECat: 0

I will say that I am extremely likely to get Cs wrong, it seems to me that they've just gone downhill instead of up like I predicted when I did my prediction at the start of the campaign

And yeah mail votes are counted along the regular votes. Mail votes issued abroad are counted 48 hours later if I am not mistaken, but they won't change more than 1 seat, maybe 2 at most.