Would George W. Bush have won any GOP presidential primary after 2004?

[Sir Mohamed]

Assuming term limits wouldn't apply, is there any post-2004 GOP presidential primary that George W. Bush would have stood a chance in? Of course we assume he was still POTUS from 2001-2009 and his term went exactly as it did. It's just that the 22nd Amendment doesn't exist.

I think there's only a chance in 2008 before the crash as he was still an incumbent. 2012 at best is a longshot, everything beyond is obviously not happening as he would be humiliated by Trump.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Depends if George W Bush was still as an adept campaigner as he was in his prime . Prime W would easily crush the non Trump field in 16 and May defeat Trump given the schedule up that year .

Prime W was very good at basically attacking candidates and turning their greatest strengths into their weaknesses and that’s one way he’d attack Trump too . He wouldn’t attack Trump on his lack of experience but would basically try to use his business record against Trump too . Lastly I can guarantee you’d see a lot of push polls before South Carolina and Super Tuesday that say “would you be more or less likely to vote for Trump if you knew he was personally an abortionist”

[wnwnwn]

I think that he could have maybe tried in 2012, especially as gay marrriage was a hot topic back then.
The field wasn´t that strong that year, and he or one of his aides maybe could have convinced Gingrich to not run. I think that he would have won SC, FL and NV primaries to become the clear favorite, and later win most of the rest.

[Del Tachi]

I don't think Dubya enjoyed being president by the end of 2008, he's happy to retire from politics after his two terms in the White House.

And if he did ever want to stage a comeback...Jeb! wanted to run in 2016, so I doubt Dubya would try to preempt his younger brother's campaign.

[Agonized-Statism]

He was nominated by a coalition that doesn't really exist in the post-2004 world. He was actually a very strong candidate for the three-legged stool back when it was a thing and you could get business conservatives to compromise on big government "compassionate conservatism" and religious right arguments were levied for foreign intervention, powerful enough to supersede white working class skepticism (now that's insufficient to get a war going and keep it going given our recruitment numbers, you need "MORE 👏 FEMALE 👏 WAR 👏 CRIMINALS 👏" and "um sweetie you do know the enemy is racist and homophobic right"). What made him strong then in compromising would make him weak now. Now, times are harder, conservatives are on the defense, and that lends itself toward infighting and purity testing and consequently demagoguery in the Republican Party. He stretched the old GOP to the breaking point fighting his forever war.

[Medal506]

I think he might have considered running again in 2008 if he lost re election in 2004.

[Pres Mike]

powerful enough to supersede white working class skepticism

Working class whites were against the Iraq War? I thought they were its biggest supporters

[President Johnson]

I think he might have considered running again in 2008 if he lost re election in 2004.

Probably, at least if polls showed him in a decent position. However, I don't think he could have won a Republican primary after his second term. The Bush name has just been toxic in Republican circles since 2008. That was also one of several reasons Jeb! flopped so badly.

[Schiff for Senate]

No, not if his second term went as it had irl. He was abysmally unpopular, even among Republicans, by the time he left office. And the party's base was also moving in a more isolationist direction - otherwise Trump would never have been nominated irl (remember that Trump actually made a point of emphasizing that he had opposed the Iraq War, and used it to attack Jeb...if the attack had any impact whatsoever on Jeb's campaign, when he had nothing to do with the war, such an attack would certainly be quite debilitating to the man that actually caused it).

[MyLifeIsYours]

powerful enough to supersede white working class skepticism

Working class whites were against the Iraq War? I thought they were its biggest supporters

Middle-class suburbanites were the biggest backers of the war. They were the people who would put the yellow ribbon sticker on their minivan.

[Pres Mike]

powerful enough to supersede white working class skepticism

Working class whites were against the Iraq War? I thought they were its biggest supporters

Middle-class suburbanites were the biggest backers of the war. They were the people who would put the yellow ribbon sticker on their minivan.

So working class whites oppossed it? Thats the first I am hearing about that. But would explain how Kerry did better with WWC than Obama/Hillary/Biden

[Vice President Christian Man]

powerful enough to supersede white working class skepticism

Working class whites were against the Iraq War? I thought they were its biggest supporters

Middle-class suburbanites were the biggest backers of the war. They were the people who would put the yellow ribbon sticker on their minivan.

So working class whites oppossed it? Thats the first I am hearing about that. But would explain how Kerry did better with WWC than Obama/Hillary/Biden

Many WWC areas either barely swung towards Obama or swung towards McCain. The vast majority of Kerry-McCain areas outside of Massachusetts were disproportionately WWC in terms of its demographics.