Will 2020 be the Emergence of the Democratic Majority/realignment? (user search)
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  Will 2020 be the Emergence of the Democratic Majority/realignment? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will 2020 be the Emergence of the Democratic Majority/realignment?  (Read 746 times)
Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,000
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« on: June 14, 2020, 04:46:03 PM »

I have two schools of thought on this one.

1)On one hand I can see a massive FDR 1932/Reagan 1980 style win that ushers in a one party dominance for at least a decade.



Under this scenario the Dems would dominate the 2020s. As seen in the 1940s, 1990s these realignments tend to lose steam after a decade and the GOP would undoubtedly make some gains in 2030 and on. You can sort of see this and then around 2030, the AOC wing takes charge and states move around in ways no one can see now. This happened with the religious right and suburbanites in the northeast in the 1990s (see NJ NY CT NH VT), this group just did not take to the christian right at all.

You wonder if AOC/Omar and the illiberal left gains influence in a way that causes some weird state shifts no one could have foreseen in 2020. I would say this wing could be pretty toxic in New England and the suburban Midwest. States that are fairly white like RI, CT could shift right rapidly while Maine, Minnesota become lean R. This wing would likely also be unpopular with Jews, Asians and Hispanics who are 3+ generations American. Places like NJ, NY could be more competitive and it could help GOP hold on in Florida. Georgia would be one of the bluest states in America along with the west coast.

2) On the other hand, some of the Democratic politicians are so culturally elitist and care so little about economic issues that you wonder if they will focus on policing, removing statues while unemployment is 12% and people are fuming. The Dems would flame very very fast + GOP would make big gains in 2022 like 2010 and 1994. The Dems economic relief would be identity politics (for instance, forgiving student loans for mainly only certain minorities and driving white college voters back to the GOP) and accomplish very little.
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Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,000
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2020, 05:01:49 PM »

What do you guys think of my 2030s AOC wing hypothesis? I feel like it’s somewhat realistic
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Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,000
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2020, 05:05:29 PM »

That's the risk for Dems too, they dominate but don't solve economic problems, in 2032 blacks and Hispanics switch sides and join working class whites in an FDR style GOP coalition
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