Control of Congressional Redistricting as of 2018 elections

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

Much of Oneida would go to Brindisi, while Stefanik would pick up Oswego and maybe Cayuga and the rest of Herkimer, which she'd be fine with.

It's not what she gets, it's WHO she gets. Brindisi's from Utica. And NY21 is less Pub then NY22, even with Oneida attached. It also has some Dem areas like the Canadian border that I could see trending back towards the Dems, whereas NY21s non-Binghampton areas are a harder lift for Dems.

Basically, there are three upstate scenarios right now:
-Stefanik vs Brindisi - very bad for GOP but the natural fair scenario
-Katko vs Reed - Bad if the Trumpists are still around
-Katko vs Brindisi - good for Pubs, since Katko is already living on borrowed time until Dems really find a quality candidate, pour money into the seat, and perhaps pair Ithica with Syracuse. This however requires gerrymandering.

Why would Stefanik vs Brindisi be bad for the GOP? Stefanik is one of their strongest incumbents, and placing them in the same district is the most likely scenario for Brindisi getting defeated in 2022.

[Oryxslayer]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

Much of Oneida would go to Brindisi, while Stefanik would pick up Oswego and maybe Cayuga and the rest of Herkimer, which she'd be fine with.

It's not what she gets, it's WHO she gets. Brindisi's from Utica. And NY21 is less Pub then NY22, even with Oneida attached. It also has some Dem areas like the Canadian border that I could see trending back towards the Dems, whereas NY21s non-Binghampton areas are a harder lift for Dems.

Basically, there are three upstate scenarios right now:
-Stefanik vs Brindisi - very bad for GOP but the natural fair scenario
-Katko vs Reed - Bad if the Trumpists are still around
-Katko vs Brindisi - good for Pubs, since Katko is already living on borrowed time until Dems really find a quality candidate, pour money into the seat, and perhaps pair Ithica with Syracuse. This however requires gerrymandering.

Why would Stefanik vs Brindisi be bad for the GOP? Stefanik is one of their strongest incumbents, and placing them in the same district is the most likely scenario for Brindisi getting defeated in 2022.

If it's a Dem midterm, then yes. If it's a Trump midterm, I put her fate at no better then 50-50.

[nclib]

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.

Ok.

Red = full Democratic control
Light Red = Democratic control with Repub (or non-partisan) influence
Blue = full Republican control
Light Blue = Republican control with Dem (or non-partisan) influence
Green = mixed or non-partisan commission
Gray = at-large seat

[Kevinstat]

-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.

The 2/3 requirement was only in statute for congressional redistricting in 2011 (it was in the Maine Constitution for legislative redistricting, and since 2011 has been in the Maine Constitution for congressional and county commissioner redistricting as well), so Republicans had more leverage in 2011 with their trifecta then Democrats will have in 2021 even if they keep their trifecta in 2020 (likely) but fail to win 2/3 majorities in both chambers (also likely (that they will fail in that)).  The threat of a People's Veto was cited by one Republican who was on the 2011 advisory commission as a rationale for abandoning their east-west plan and offering up one that made smaller changes but still helped them in CD-2, although he pointed out that the Republicans had offered up that plan earlier and had it rejected so "if anyone caved, it was the Democrats."

I'm fine with light (Atlas) red for Maine instead of green.  Just know that it's a lighter shade of Atlas red then the Atlas blue would have been for Maine in 2011.