Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)  (Read 61732 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: February 01, 2016, 07:38:46 PM »
It's 2am, so let's get this thing started with a good drink:



Have a fun night, folks !

Smiley
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2016, 07:51:21 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on February 01, 2016, 07:49:33 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 01, 2016, 07:38:46 PM
It's 2am, so let's get this thing started with a good drink:



Have a fun night, folks !

Smiley

How do you plan on coping with the disappointment of a Sanders loss?

If it happens, it shall be so.

But I'm pretty confident Bernie pulls this out.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2016, 07:56:17 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 01, 2016, 07:54:33 PM
CBS News is already releasing some of the entrance poll #s:

https://twitter.com/CBSPolitics

Quote
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I guess Sanders is ahead like 90-9-1 with voters who do not want them to continue ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2016, 08:00:25 PM »
How reliable is this entrance poll really if people are still in line outside in the parking lot ?

Tongue

Hopefully they are letting all these folks vote. Otherwise, caucuses suck.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2016, 08:07:04 PM »
Entrance poll is like 50-43-4-3 Clinton/Sanders/O'Malley/Uncommitted.

But still early and these polls are always revised.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2016, 08:08:46 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on February 01, 2016, 08:07:28 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on February 01, 2016, 08:06:46 PM
Men (42%): 47-43 Sanders
Women (58%): 55-40 Clinton

Not good for Sanders...

Cheesy

Not that it's solid, but I'd rather be ahead in it than behind...

The entrance polls also showed Hillary winning the IA caucus in 2008, the she came in third.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2016, 08:10:44 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on February 01, 2016, 08:09:53 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 01, 2016, 08:08:46 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on February 01, 2016, 08:07:28 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on February 01, 2016, 08:06:46 PM
Men (42%): 47-43 Sanders
Women (58%): 55-40 Clinton

Not good for Sanders...

Cheesy

Not that it's solid, but I'd rather be ahead in it than behind...

The entrance polls also showed Hillary winning the IA caucus in 2008, the she came in third.

I'm aware. I'd still rather be ahead in it than behind.

True, but we'll see.

Hopefully they are not sending away the people waiting in line though.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2016, 08:12:54 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on February 01, 2016, 08:12:01 PM

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

CNN just said Clinton led the early entrance poll in 2008.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2016, 08:18:50 PM »

Well, it seems they are starting the caucus late in several locations to crowd in the people in line into the sites.

Then there's the debating and vote counting.

Maybe another hour or so for actual results.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2016, 08:20:53 PM »
CNN is just reporting a caucus site where a Bernie supporter just came in to the site as #400 (they expcted 250) and it's already 20 minutes after 7pm ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2016, 08:22:19 PM »
The people that are now coming in are looking good for the Bernie camp.

I'm pretty sure that the entrance poll is off by a lot ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2016, 08:29:21 PM »
Wolf Blitzer just said this is an entrance poll of "early people".

They will likely revise it later to account for late-entering people.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2016, 08:36:15 PM »
Getting better ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2016, 08:48:47 PM »
I'm now switching to TV ... I'm back in a few hours.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2016, 10:00:42 PM »
This is a great night, no matter how it ends.

Even if it means I end up losing 70€ I bet on Sanders and Rubio.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2016, 10:22:16 PM »
Funny side fact:

Overtime Politics might be one of the best polls on the Dem side and one of the worst on the GOP side.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2016, 10:32:42 PM »
Did the Dem vote counters go to sleep or something ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2016, 10:35:30 PM »

DECIMALS !!!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2016, 10:53:45 PM »
Is it time already to break out the "It's happening" gifs ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2016, 11:09:40 PM »
This is the Democrats Florida 2000.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2016, 11:11:42 PM »

Or their VA of 2006, 2008 or 2012.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2016, 12:09:09 AM »
Would it be possible that Sanders got 1 more delegate but Clinton 0.1% more ?

If so I wonder if I get my money from WilliamHill.com ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2016, 12:24:21 AM »
If it ends 49.7 vs. 49.7 tomorrow, i really wonder if I get my 200€ win from WilliamHill.com ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: February 02, 2016, 12:23:24 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on February 02, 2016, 12:14:09 PM
According to the link on uselectionatlas It seems the raw votes are

Clinton     69,631
Sanders   69,319
O'Malley       758

So Clinton wins by around 300 votes.

That's impossible, because the Iowa Democratic Party wrote in their press release that turnout was 171,109 voters.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2016, 12:34:42 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on February 02, 2016, 12:31:58 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 02, 2016, 12:23:24 PM
Quote from: jaichind on February 02, 2016, 12:14:09 PM
According to the link on uselectionatlas It seems the raw votes are

Clinton     69,631
Sanders   69,319
O'Malley       758

So Clinton wins by around 300 votes.

That's impossible, because the Iowa Democratic Party wrote in their press release that turnout was 171,109 voters.

The atlas link does seem to match the results at NY times site. on a county by county basis.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/iowa?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region

Yeah, but unless there was a typo in the IA DP release - there's a gap of 30.000 voters.
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