KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky

[ElectionsGuy]

McConnell's going to win the primary and one of those three senators will likely be gone in 2017, so I don't think their "non-endorsement" will have much of an impact.  Even the Tea Party knows they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to successfully oust their would-be Majority Leader.

I really don't think they realize that.  If not Kentucky,  they'll hand us another seat in 2014.

What seat?

[ElectionsGuy]

McConnell's going to win the primary and one of those three senators will likely be gone in 2017, so I don't think their "non-endorsement" will have much of an impact.  Even the Tea Party knows they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to successfully oust their would-be Majority Leader.

I really don't think they realize that.  If not Kentucky,  they'll hand us another seat in 2014.

What seat?

Who knows?  The Tea Party handed us Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado in '10 and Missouri and Indiana in '12.  I'm sure they'll hand us a couple seats in '14.  Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, Alaska, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Maine -- could be any of these potentially.  It's too hard to predict this far out, but I guarantee at least 1 of these states will nominate a complete buffoon as the Republican who hands the seat to the Democrat, while a more mainstream Republican who would've won loses the primary.

OK, but you can't guarantee anything. Your assuming that there will be a bad republican candidate but no democratic slip-up, and that's simply because republicans have done bad lately. Out of the states you mentioned as possible pickups... Thinking the democrats have a chance of taking Texas or Mississippi is a bit absurd, West Virginia and South Dakota are almost locked in for republicans (as long as Mike Rounds and Shelley Moore Capito run and get nominated as expected), Maine is fine as long as Collins runs (I believe she is) and the others are mostly toss-ups (GA and KY lean R).

[ElectionsGuy]

OK, but you can't guarantee anything. Your assuming that there will be a bad republican candidate but no democratic slip-up, and that's simply because republicans have done bad lately. Out of the states you mentioned as possible pickups... Thinking the democrats have a chance of taking Texas or Mississippi is a bit absurd,

I think you're misunderstanding me.  Of course Texas and Mississippi are longshots.  The only way Democrats win is if Republicans nominate an off-the-deep-end Tea Party-type and Democrats run a decent candidate.  The fact that it's happened in 5 of the last 67 Senate races, and the Tea Party still doesn't get it, leads me to believe it will happen again somewhere.  Maybe not in those states, but somewhere.

West Virginia and South Dakota are almost locked in for republicans (as long as Mike Rounds and Shelley Moore Capito run and get nominated as expected),

Obviously if Rounds and Capito are the candidates, Republicans are very likely to win.  But somewhere in the country, the Tea Party is going to get some fool nominated and cause Republicans to lose a seat they otherwise would have won.  SD and WV are prime candidates.

Maine is fine as long as Collins runs (I believe she is)

The Tea Party types sure hate Collins, and if they knock her out in the primary, Democrats will probably win the seat.  Granted, I don't think it's very likely, but you just never know.  I didn't think there was any way Democrats would win Dick Lugar's seat, but then the Tea Party fixed it for us.

and the others are mostly toss-ups (GA and KY lean R).

If McConnell wins the primary, Republicans probably win.  If a non-Tea Partier in Georgia wins the nomination, Republicans are very likely to win.  But I wouldn't be surprised in the least if an Akin-type ends up being the nominee in one or both of these states.

Again, I'm not saying that Democrats will win any of these seats if Republicans run reasonable conservatives instead of Akin/Murdouch/Angle/O'Donell/Buck - types.  But there's just too much will within the Republican base to nominate that type of candidate, so somewhere they probably will.

I really hope the tea party learned from '12 and '10 that they have to nominate the best candidates, not the most conservative candidates. The only races I'm really worried about this cycle are Georgia (Broun/Gingrey), and possibly Montana (if Daines doesn't run) and Alaska (if Treadwell doesn't get nominated). ME, WV, LA, AR, are going well as long as the front running candidates get nominated. TX and MS will be fine regardless of any candidates (IMO). Kentucky should be a tight but expected race for Mr. McConnell. I don't think there's nearly as many mistakes to be made this time as the last few cycles, but you'd think the tea party (which has good intent) would learn from their mistakes from NV ('10), CO ('10), MO ('12), IN ('12).

[ElectionsGuy]

McConnell's main strategy is going to be tying Grimes to Senate Democrats:

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Really? He could tie her to Reid or Schumer or Sanders, but Landrieu?

Might as well say: "IF MY OPPONENT IS ELECTED SHE'LL BE ANOTHER JOE MANCHIN"

Lol, isn't that good for them (Kentucky) that they'll have another populist democrat like Manchin? Its ironic and dumb on McConnell's part.

[ElectionsGuy]

Filing Deadline was today for major party candidates. Tell me if I miss any, I'm copying these straight from ballotpedia. Indies still have time to file (I think).

US Senate:

Mitch McConnell (R)(Inc.)
Matt Bevin (R)
Brad Copas (R)
Chris Payne (R)
Shawna Sterling (R)
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Burrel Charles Farnsley (D)
Greg Leichty (D)
Tom Recktenwald (D)
Ed Marksberry (I)
David Patterson (L)

KY-1:

Ed Whitfield (R)(Inc.)
Wesley Bolin (D)
Charles Kendall Hatchett (D)

KY-2:

Brett Guthrie (R)(Inc.)
Ron Leach (D)

KY-3:

John Yarmuth (D)(Inc.)
E. Ray Pearce (D)
Michael Macfarlane (R)
Mark Gatton (I)

KY-4:

Thomas Massie (R)(Inc.)
Peter Newsberry (D)

KY-5:

Hal Rogers (R)(Inc.)
Billy Ray Wilson (D)
Kenneth Stepp (D)

KY-6:

Andy Barr (R)(Inc.)
Elisabeth Jensen (D)
Geoff Young (D)

[ElectionsGuy]

Updated the above list. Some people (especially senate candidates) withdrew or failed to file. That list is now official.

Also like to mention that Massie's "Chamber of Commerce" challenger failed to file. That's too bad, I wanted to see him get beat. Oh well, I think he knew he wouldn't win anyway.

[ElectionsGuy]

Completely random, but this race has the largest age gap of any race, 72 vs. 35, for 37 years. The only other race that comes close is Kansas, at 78 (Roberts) vs. 45 (Orman).