WI-Marquette: Baldwin +2

[LimoLiberal]

Baldwin - 49
Vukmir - 47

With LV.

Baldwin - 51
Vukmir - 43

With RV.

RED WAVE

[Ebsy]

MU Law should shut down.

[LimoLiberal]

Toss this right in the trash

lol. poll I don't like = trash.

[Politician]

"But Atlas told me Marquette is the only high quality Wisconsin poll"!

[BudgieForce]

Their likely voter screen must be pushing alot of people out. Maybe they need to adjust it.

[Zaybay]

This is a complete outlier with every other result we have gotten, and makes no sense contextually. And everyone on Atlas was treating this as the cream of the crop, just like they did with Emerson, Trafalgar, etc.

[Xing]

Doubtful

[Ebsy]

No one actually thinks Emerson is a good pollster.

[OneJ]

"But Atlas told me Marquette is the only high quality Wisconsin poll"!

[Gass3268]

Marquette has one of the strictest Likely Voter models. You have to have voted in the last midterm for you to get through their screen.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

:trash:

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't read too much into this.

Polls tend to fluctuate and this year is still shaping up as a very strong Democratic one.

And historically, it is actually beneficial for the wave-party if the polls show a close race because then their supporters are more likely to turn out and win it for them. And the Democrats are far more motivated this time.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Marquette has one of the strictest Likely Voter models. You have to have voted in the last midterm for you to get through their screen.

So Baldwin is up 2 with 2014 voters? Glorious news!

[DrScholl]

If that is how tight the likely voter screen is then this poll is not at all bad news.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Marquette has one of the strictest Likely Voter models. You have to have voted in the last midterm for you to get through their screen.

So Baldwin is up 2 with 2014 voters? Glorious news!

Yeah, if that is the LV model, this is a very good result for Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably not.

[Skye]

It may be an outlier, but it's hardly trash.

[libertpaulian]

Marquette showed Tommy Thompson up by 9% at this same point in 2012, lol.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Marquette has one of the strictest Likely Voter models. You have to have voted in the last midterm for you to get through their screen.

So Baldwin is up 2 with 2014 voters? Glorious news!

[BudgieForce]

It may be an outlier, but it's hardly trash.

Its not trash, but theres a huge gap between RV and LV screens that make the poll suspect.

[UncleSam]

Are people seriously surprised that the midwestern incumbents aren’t going to win by thirty points each like some troll hacks on this forum have been memeing lol. Of course a mere two point win is extremely unlikely, but unless you seriously thought Walker was going to get blown out (which was always silly), it never made much sense to think this would be a safe D race post the primaries.

It’s still Likely D and Baldwin should win by 6-10 in the end, but there won’t be that many split ticket voters, and the governors race remains a tossup. That alone will keep the senate race relatively competitive.

Of course their LV screen seems to be very restrictive as well. Baldwin +8 among RV makes a bit more sense though I’m curious whether they have any sort of D surge model while incorporating their LV screen - I’d bet that would give a true sense of the current state of the race (I’d bet it would be about Baldwin +6, with Walker and Evers roughly tied).

Anyway Marquette is a high quality pollster but their LV screen probably needs some tweaking.

[Xing]

It may be an outlier, but it's hardly trash.

Its not trash, but theres a huge gap between RV and LV screens that make the poll suspect.

The fact that Baldwin does significantly better among RV, while Walker does slightly better as well is a little strange as well.

[Wiz in Wis]

Marquette has one of the strictest Likely Voter models. You have to have voted in the last midterm for you to get through their screen.

I might need to confirm that with Charlie. That seems like a pretty big assumption for one pollster to hang their hat on, given what 2014 looked like.

[IceSpear]

Their RV numbers seem believable actually. Looks like whatever LV screen they're using is way too restrictive. Overcompensating for 2016?

[IceSpear]

Marquette showed Tommy Thompson up by 9% at this same point in 2012, lol.

Because Thompson actually WAS leading by a big margin in August, every poll agreed with that. That's why you shouldn't take August polls as gospel. I'm sure everyone here was calling the race likely/safe R at the time, lol.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_thompson_vs_baldwin-2711.html