The definition of reasonable doubt

[Antonio the Sixth]

The scope of reasonable doubt is directly proportional to the price of your lawyer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This particular lawyer is so weird, that he thinks of these evidentiary standards in statistical terms, to wit, standard deviations from the mean. So we have:

1. Beyond a reasonable doubt - two SD's from the mean  (95.45% odds)
2. Clear and convincing evidence - one SD from the mean (68.27% odds)
3. Preponderance of the evidence (above 50% odds)
4. Reasonably likely (the grand jury standard which I just learned) - one standard deviation from the mean the other way  (31.73% (1- .6827) odds)

I want the odds damn it! The rest is noise.

Quantitativism run amok.

(and this is coming from a quantitativist)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, for starters, the p-value has never been intended as a measure of "reasonableness", and its meaning has been so thoroughly distorted (especially in academia!) that poor Gosset must be rolling in his grave. Besides, it is very simply not applicable in the context of a trial.