.

[Bacon King]

Current partisan registration breakdown, per the NC State Board of Elections:

43.4% Democratic
31.4% Republican
  0.2% Libertarian
25.0% unaffiliated

Based on that, it looks like the partisan sample of the poll isn't too far off the mark.

[Bacon King]

Current partisan registration breakdown, per the NC State Board of Elections:

43.4% Democratic
31.4% Republican
  0.2% Libertarian
25.0% unaffiliated

Based on that, it looks like the partisan sample of the poll isn't too far off the mark.

How can you post on a poll forum every day and not know that registerd voters are different from LIKELY voter turnout? You're right, we dont know for certain what partisan turnout will be in '12, but none of us operate in a vacuum (well, maybe some of you do). Deduce what you can from these figures, but save 1980, there's NEVER been DEM turnout as high as '08.

Well, of course registered and likely voters are different. But considering that almost 90% of RV's passed the (apparently very lenient) LV screen here, it makes sense that the partisan breakdown poll will be fairly comparable to the actual registration numbers.

[Bacon King]

a few undecided blacks...poll still consistent with PPP's

And if I remember correctly, PPP's sample of D+14 is 3 points MORE Democratic than the actual voters that turned out in NC in '08.

You might want to take a look at PPP's final pre-election poll in NC in 2008.  They had a sample of D+11 (49-38)... and topline results of Obama 50, McCain 49. Pretty much dead-on.
By your line of reasoning, this might have been re-weighted back to around D+4, the biggest advantage the Democrats had had in NC since Carter.

It's probably a good idea, in other words, not to get too excited about partisan ID numbers in a poll taken almost six months before the election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2008/PPP_Release_NC_1103173.pdf

PPP also polled amendment 1 at a mere +16.

Better than the second most accurate pollster, which predicted a 61% to 32% defeat of the amendment