Official Michigan Megathread

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I figured it was about time to start this for Michigan, since a number of states already have it.  Feel free to discuss any upcoming elections in Michigan, be it statewide, local, or ballot proposals.  I'll be looking forward to seeing what you've got!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Michigan is not a "blue state."  It's a swing state by any standard.  Remember that Gore only took it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama won solidly here in 2008 and 2012, but those were in strong Dem years nationally.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I can use the poll because it won't stick. In a week or so we will have a more reliable poll from PPP.

If you seriously consider PPP a reliable pollster this early in a campaign, then you need your head examined.  In 2012, their polls way overstated Dem numbers all the way into the summer in several states.  They may have been accurate closer to Election Day, but that's not now.  And they've been overstating Dem numbers in their 2014 polls thus far as well.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

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Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

I have to disagree. I think it does matter. When paired with his push for expanding Medicaid and setting up the exchange, this will help Snyder gain support from those who identify as independents (people who voted for Obama in 2008, but voted for Snyder in 2010). The Democratic base in Michigan is only about 38-40% of the electorate.

Not to mention that the Detroit bankruptcy has seemed to really help him recently.

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

I expected him to be leading by more. Seriously.

It's a Democrat pollster, after all, and one that overstates Dem numbers early in campaigns, so it probably doesn't mean much.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Looks like Snyder's getting a primary opponent: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_birt.html#incart_river_default

He was a birther, registered as a Democrat, but he "switched his party affiliation this week with the Secretary of State, saying his platform is too conservative for the Democratic ticket."

You think?

Joke candidate.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140113/OBITUARIES/301130076/Former-Michigan-Lt-Gov-Connie-Binsfeld-dies

I know it's not related to current Michigan politics, but I thought it was worth sharing.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

We've already discussed that poll over in that board. General consensus (even among one of our most famous R hacks) is that it's crap.

Considering your beloved PPP had Land ahead by 2 points a month ago, I'd say she's probably winning by something in between, maybe 5 points or so.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

http://blogs.detroitnews.com/politics/2014/02/06/darren-littell-gov-snyders-education-record-sterling/

An interesting article about Schauer and the Dems' attacks on Gov. Snyder over education.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The labor unions are peeved with Snyder. Whatever good he has done in Michigan  (OK -- it's the OBAMA RECOVERY, and not solely the result of Rick Snyder!) he has offended the politically-active unions with the Right to Work (for starvation wages) law. They usually begin their vote drives with the aid of large African-American activist groups around Labor Day, and they can make life tough for Republicans.

Because of the shaky Governor and the open Senate seat, Michigan Democrats are going to ring lots of doorbells in September and October.

Mark Schauer begins with a huge disadvantage in that he was from a district away from the great number of Michigan voters in the Southeast. But if he could win in Battle Creek, he can pick up the votes in Greater Detroit, Lansing, Flint, Saginaw, and Ann Arbor. Friendly chats that can customize the discussion are worth all the Orwellian ads that right-wing carpetbag groups can offer on TV.

Uh...it's not the "Obama recovery."  Stats show that the main reason Michigan's unemployment is dropping is because so many people have left the state to find work.
And as for "right-wing carpetbag groups," the DGA paid for Schauer's first TV ads, so Snyder's supporters aren't alone.  (They do this in statewide campaigns all the time--it's like their job.)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It's 50-50 that Republicans sweep statewide offices in Michigan this fall, including some seats on the Michigan State Supreme Court

They did in 2010, except that there were no Senate seats up, so those both remained D.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The Democratic Governor's Association is putting another $6 million down for Schauer.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Michigan's unions will be out for bear this year for the Duty to Starve legislation that Snyder ended up supporting after he had said that it was premature and unnecessary.

Will you please stop calling it that?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

In other news, the GR Chamber and RTL are endorsing Brian Ellis over Justin Amash: http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2014/06/brian_ellis_backed_by_grand_ra.html#incart_most-comments

Good for them.  Amash is a disgrace to the GOP.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Even though they endorsed Rick Snyder earlier this year, the Detroit Regional Chamber is throwing its support behind Gary Peters: http://www.mlive.com/business/detroit/index.ssf/2014/06/detroit_regional_chamber_endor_1.html#incart_river_default

Why in the world would a pro-business organization support Peters?  I can understand why they may like his "bipartisan track record," but what makes them think he's a better choice than Land?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Even Republicans agree that Terri Lynn Land's ads are terrible: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140626/POLITICS02/306260043/Political-Insider-GOP-candidate-lands-pollster-s-worst-ad-list

So much for the "Michiganders love her and elected her in two landslides, so she must be a great politician" line of reasoning.

I thought her ads were great.  I was talking to my aunt today, and she said they did a great job of humanizing her.  I, for one, would agree.  But if people don't like them, then maybe it helps explain why her poll numbers have dropped recently.

Looks a little like the fight for Dave Camp's seat is heating up: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140714/POLITICS01/307140013/0/POLITICS/GOP-battle-Camp-s-Congress-seat-gets-feisty

I'm betting Moolenaar still wins on August 5th, though.

I just sent $5 to Moolenaar today.  Mitchell is running an attack ad claiming that Moolenaar voted to "raise taxes" 160 times, including supporting the Michigan Business Tax.  If anything, that actually makes me more likely to support him (as much as I hate tax increases) because it shows he's open to compromise if necessary.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Most recent poll shows Snyder and Schauer tied at 40 apiece and Peters leading Land by 9.

Who did it?  There's no way Peters is that far ahead (even if he leads), and most polls have had Snyder with a modest lead as well.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

What's up with the ballot proposals?  I'm really confused as to what's going on with that.

And personally, if I were a Republican, I wouldn't give up on the Senate race.  There have been a few polls recently that suggest that it's close.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

What's up with the ballot proposals?  I'm really confused as to what's going on with that.

And personally, if I were a Republican, I wouldn't give up on the Senate race.  There have been a few polls recently that suggest that it's close.

No there haven't.

edit: Oh I guess there was just a poll from right-wing Mitchell Research showing it closer. Fair enough I guess.

EPIC-MRA's latest poll has Peters' lead dropping by 3 points from their last one.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Oldies, your sig makes me like Schauer more.

Well, you were supporting him anyway, and you don't live here, so I don't think it really made much difference other than that.

If you'd been here when Granholm was governor, I'm pretty sure your outlook would be much different.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

New poll has the Senate race a virtual tie: https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-michigan/

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Gov. Milliken endorsed Snyder today.

New poll has the Senate race a virtual tie: [url]https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-michigan/[/url]

Yeah, I'm guessing Peters will win more than the 41% of women and 59% of black voters they cite.

I would imagine that most of the other blacks and women are undecided at this point.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

...i'm sorry.  Did someone slip some acid in my Coke?

No; Coke already has acid in it, albeit not the kind you're thinking of.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Oldies, your sig makes me like Schauer more.

Well, you were supporting him anyway, and you don't live here, so I don't think it really made much difference other than that.

If you'd been here when Granholm was governor, I'm pretty sure your outlook would be much different.

When Granholm was governor, Bush was President. The entire country was suffering from the Bush/GOP economic collapse and Granholm did her best while the economy and the auto industry went under thanks to Bush and the Republicans. All the while Snyder is making his own "In 5 years you'll be blown away" pledge.

You realize that the auto industry was hurting before Bush took office?  And Michigan started tanking in the recession of 2000/2001, which began during Clinton's last few months in office.  Granholm repeatedly supported higher taxes as governor, and even opposed repealing the GOP effort to repeal the Single Business Tax.  I think you're drinking the liberal Kool-Aid.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

http://michigan.gov/snyder/0,4668,7-277--343856--,00.html

Here's the new plan for the roads.  Looks like we'll have to vote on this in May.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

http://michigan.gov/snyder/0,4668,7-277--343856--,00.html

Here's the new plan for the roads.  Looks like we'll have to vote on this in May.

Yep--the plan is to fund fixing the roads on the back of middle class citizens. You know what, though? The roads need to be fixed, period. Michigan's roads are the worst.

How is it on the backs of the middle class if it reinstates the EITC?  Don't get me wrong; I don't want to raise sales taxes and would rather pay for it some other way, but did you actually read the link?