UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[jaichind]

Tony Blair doubts Ed Miliband can win 2015 general election

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/30/tony-blair-ed-miliband-general-election-labour

Although Blair seems to try to walk back his comments.  How he feels is clear.

[jaichind]

Prime Minister Ed McMiliband? It's pure fantasy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11318945/Prime-Minister-Ed-McMiliband-Its-pure-fantasy.html

I find this article interesting of how SNP is playing up talk that they will back a Labor government so they can take away the last reasons to vote Labor in Scotland versus SNP.

[jaichind]

Would not polls like this from Scotland cause LD and Labor voters to tactically vote to defeat SNP and keep the number of seats won by the SNP lower than what the polls imply ?

[jaichind]

One aspect all these polls seems to be similar. CON+UKIP is always around 46-48.

[jaichind]

I think I made this point before, but I noticed in all the polls that since the around May 2014, CON+UKIP seems to jump around 47% with a very low level of variation.  In which case would not polling around CON/UKIP tactical voting be useful, especially in England in figuring out exactly what level of losses will be sustained by CON.

[jaichind]

There is a not insignificant minority of votes that UKIP takes from Labour too. We should not assume that every point lost by UKIP is a point gained by the Tories...

That is what I would think as well.  But if CON+UKIP always seems to add up to 47% with very small variation since May 2014, then I have to assume from a net point of view any LAB->UKIP shift already took place and now it is mostly about CON-UKIP shifts back and forth. 

[jaichind]

It's also worth noting that Farage's personal ratings have tanked and are now at Milibandesque levels but with the added problem that they are now the main party that people are least likely to vote for. Don't expect much tactical voting to enable UKIP; probably quite the opposite.

Yep.  I was more thinking of UKIP->CON tactical voting.  

[jaichind]

Will the NI parties play a role in government formation if the election is this close and perhaps no two parties can get an absolute majority ?