NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6

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Crosstabs:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/



Another poll in which Clinton does (slightly) better among members of her own party than Trump does among his.  Yet it's the Republicans who have "unified" while Democrats haven't?

Hillary's main problem has little to do with Democrats and a lot do with independents who tend to vote for Democrats.

They aren't voting for Trump though, at least not in most of the country. There is some concern in the midwest but not in the rest of the country.

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Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

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Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

Most of her current weakness appears to be young voters.

I agree. Good news is that young voters are more disproportionately Latino and Asian/Others and will turn out against Trump. That being said, she needs a good margin amongst all young voters. I definitely think they will fall in line once they are faced with the choice of Trump or Clinton. The margin will be more key than the turnout.

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Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

That depends heavily on what assumptions you make about turnout and margins of the groups that aren't provided in the crosstabs.

If the margins of whites and blacks are the same as in this poll, and if you assume whites drop to 70% and Hispanics rise to 12%, with turnout and margins for all other groups remaining identical to 2012, it would be:

Whites (70%): 56-44 Trump
Blacks (13%): 92-8 Clinton
Hispanics (12%): 72-28 Clinton
Asian (3%): 74-26 Clinton
Other (2%): 60-40 Clinton

That gives a 55-45 election. But that's a lot of assumptions. If the election defies the hype and white turnout stays stagnant, it's 54-46. If black turnout drops a point, it's down to 53-47.

True. I would assume the Hispanic and Asian vote will swing even more towards Hillary than 2012 but that is not supported by the data as of now.