UK Local Elections, 4th May 2017

[Clyde1998]

This is a map of what's up based on previous (overall) control; anything black is 'no overall control', grey is independent and light pink is not up for election.


Based on what I can work out, this is the situation following the previous elections in each area up:
Lab - 1,544 councillors
Con - 1,338
Ind - 648
Lib - 504
SNP - 425
Plaid - 170
UKIP - 138
Grn - 34
Oth - 99 (Others may include some independent candidates that use 'party-type' descriptions)

England: Con 1,118; Lab 570; Lib 360; Ind 154; UKIP 136; Grn 20; Oth 52
Scotland: SNP 425; Lab 394; Ind 196; Con 115; Lib 71; Grn 14; Oth 8
Wales: Lab 580; Ind 298; Plaid 170; Con 105; Lib 73; Oth 39

[Clyde1998]

The local elections are on Thursday. Will probably be our first indication of what will happen in June's general election.

[Clyde1998]

It's been ten years to the day since the SNP won their first election in their history. It seems likely that Labour's last bastion, Glasgow, will fall to the SNP tomorrow. A lot has changed in Scottish politics in the last ten years. The results in Scotland could give a major indication of whether the Conservatives have a realistic chance of winning a large number of seats from the SNP in June's general election.

[Clyde1998]

The polls have closed.

[Clyde1998]

It's been suggested that the first ward level results from England and Wales should start coming in within the next 20-30 minutes. Haven't heard anything about Scotland, but the results will probably be longer, due to the differences in the voting system.

[Clyde1998]

I'm pretty sure we're counting in the morning - that's what they've always done ever since they brought in STV.  I believe that its a computer count though so it should be relatively quick: just a job of scanning the papers for all of their preferences; double checking any that the thing doesn't read in case they have valid preferences on them and then press the button and see how everything works out.  Even if they do it by hand it ought not to take very long; there aren't that many votes being counted after all...

That makes sense, I was wondering why there was no talk of the Scotland results anywhere. It shouldn't take so long, as long as the electronic counting system works, unlike in 2007.

[Clyde1998]

First result of the night:

@britainelects: Labour HOLD Queensferry (Flintshire).

[Clyde1998]

@britainelects: Independent GAIN Rhosnesni (Wrexham) from Labour.

[Clyde1998]

@britainelects:
Liberal Democrat GAIN Caldicot Castle (Monmouthshire) from Labour.
Conservative WIN Bedworth North (Warwickshire). (Notional gain from Labour. Boundary changes.)

[Clyde1998]

@britainelects:
Labour GAIN Green Lane (Monmouthshire) from Independent.
Conservative GAIN Larkfield (Monmouthshire) from Liberal Democrat.
Independent GAIN Garden Village (Wrexham) from Labour.

[Clyde1998]

Labour loses another to Independent. Garden Village.

Apparently, the independent was the Labour councillor who was elected in 2012.

Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.
Conservative WIN Waddington & Hykeham East (Lincolnshire). [Notional hold. Boundary changes.]

[Clyde1998]

britainelects: Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.

Maybe there's going to be a shock in the West Midlands mayoral election.

[Clyde1998]

Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.

@election_data: Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) Con GAIN from Labour.
Lab down from 68% in 2012 to 24%
Con up from 20% in 2012 to 40.6%

[Clyde1998]

BBC Wales Seats:
Lab - 22 (-2)
Ind - 5 (N/C)
Con - 3 (+2)
Lib - 3 (+1)
Plaid - 1 (-1)
Oth - 0 (N/C)

[Clyde1998]

BBC England Seats:
Con - 12 (+5)
Lab - 5 (-4)
Lib - 2 (-1)
Ind - 1 (+1)
UKIP - 0 (-1)
Oth - 0 (N/C)

[Clyde1998]

Wales Seats:
Lab - 29 (-3)
Ind - 11 (+2)
Con - 6 (+2)
Lib - 4 (+1)
Plaid - 1 (-2)
Oth - 0 (N/C)

England Seats:
Con - 22 (+10)
Lab - 8 (-7)
Lib - 2 (-1)
Ind - 1 (N/C)
UKIP - 0 (-2)
Oth - 0 (N/C)

[Clyde1998]

What happened to the Corbyn youth vote that was going to turn out to save LAB ?

Younger voters don't turnout for local elections - most younger voters probably don't even know there were local elections going on. They'll be more likely to turnout for the general election; that being said, older voters are probably more likely to turnout for a general election too.

[Clyde1998]

Wales does not look that bad so far for LAB.

Apparently, they're not doing too well in Cardiff. Although, they don't seem to be doing anywhere near as badly as they're doing in England.

[Clyde1998]

Wales Seats:
Lab - 36 (-1)
Ind - 16 (-1)
Con - 9 (+1)
Lib - 5 (+2)
Plaid - 2 (-1)
Oth - 0 (N/C)

England Seats:
Con - 50 (+21)
Lab - 12 (-15)
Lib - 4 (-2)
Ind - 3 (+2)
Grn - 1 (N/C)
UKIP - 0 (-6)
Oth - 0 (N/C)

[Clyde1998]

@election_data: Bulkington (Nuneaton). Huge Conservative GAIN
Lab 24%, down from 36%
Con 76%, up from 36%
UKIP did not stand - they got 28% in 2014

That's shocking for Labour.

[Clyde1998]

Conservatives GAIN Warwickshire Council from No Overall Control

[Clyde1998]

@britainelects: Labour fears they've lost control of Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent.

[Clyde1998]

I am surprised how poorly LIB is doing so far.  I thought relative to 2013 there should be a revival.  I guess the collapse of UKIP vote share to CON outweighed any gains in vote share they might have had.

It's hard to judge how well the Lib Dems are doing until we see the vote shares. They usually do better in terms of seats when the Conservatives are doing badly, as more of their potential seats are contests between them and the Tories.

[Clyde1998]

@markpack: Remember: if Labour loses seats overall, will be first time since records began that official opposition has lost seats three years in a row

Ouch.

[Clyde1998]

Conservatives HOLD Essex County Council