SC-Opinion Savvy: Trump 28% Cruz 21% Rubio 12% Bush/Carson 10% Christie 6%

[Senator Cris]

Trump 28%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 12%
Bush 10%
Carson 10%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Paul 3%
Huckabee 2%
Graham 2%
Kasich 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 0%

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/SC-GOP-PP-12.17.15.pdf

[Senator Cris]

Debate poll (best/worst, net)

Trump (30/14, +16)
Cruz (18/4, +14)
Rubio (15/4, +11)
Christie (14/4, +10)
Fiorina (6/8, - 2)
Paul (4/11, - 7)
Carson (3/12, - 9)
Kasich (0/10, - 10)
Bush (5/27, - 22)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cruz is on the move. I reckon if he wins Iowa he will become the favorite here too.

[Mr. Morden]

If the race were just Bush, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Trump:

Trump 32%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 16%
Bush 13%
Carson 11%

Who leads among…?
age 18-29: Rubio
age 30-44: Trump
age 45-64: Cruz
age 65+: Trump
white: Trump
black: Cruz
other race: Trump
men: Trump
women: Trump
Republican: Cruz
Independent: Trump

For fun, here’s the breakdown of black support (obviously huge MoE, as only 1% of the sample was black):

Cruz 29%
Trump 25%
Pataki 17%
Carson 11%
Christie 9%
Bush 8%
everyone else 0

[Tender Branson]

How is that even possible ?

There were only 5 Blacks in that poll.

If Cruz gets 29% of these 5 Blacks, that means he has the votes of 1.45 Blacks - 1 Black and an arm, leg and maybe the head of another Black person ...

[Alcon]

How is that even possible ?

There were only 5 Blacks in that poll.

If Cruz gets 29% of these 5 Blacks, that means he has the votes of 1.45 Blacks - 1 Black and an arm, leg and maybe the head of another Black person ...

I would say weighting, which explains the different values...but it doesn't explain how six candidates have a share of the Black vote...

[Mr. Morden]

How is that even possible ?

There were only 5 Blacks in that poll.

If Cruz gets 29% of these 5 Blacks, that means he has the votes of 1.45 Blacks - 1 Black and an arm, leg and maybe the head of another Black person ...

I would say weighting, which explains the different values...but it doesn't explain how six candidates have a share of the Black vote...

Yes, oddly it says there were 5 blacks, yet 6 candidates got at least some black support.  Maybe a mixed race person got weighted into the "black" category? 

[Tender Branson]

How is that even possible ?

There were only 5 Blacks in that poll.

If Cruz gets 29% of these 5 Blacks, that means he has the votes of 1.45 Blacks - 1 Black and an arm, leg and maybe the head of another Black person ...

I would say weighting, which explains the different values...but it doesn't explain how six candidates have a share of the Black vote...

So, it basically means they called a total of let's say 10.000 people for that poll - of which 100 or more were Black (which would yield the numbers above) and after the weighting (down to 520 or so), the numbers ended up weird because of the small sample ?

[Landslide Lyndon]

How is that even possible ?

There were only 5 Blacks in that poll.

If Cruz gets 29% of these 5 Blacks, that means he has the votes of 1.45 Blacks - 1 Black and an arm, leg and maybe the head of another Black person ...

Maybe they counted every black as 3/5 of a vote.

[Tender Branson]

How is that even possible ?

There were only 5 Blacks in that poll.

If Cruz gets 29% of these 5 Blacks, that means he has the votes of 1.45 Blacks - 1 Black and an arm, leg and maybe the head of another Black person ...

Maybe they counted every black as 3/5 of a vote.

No, that would be polling racism ...

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Looks like this race is turning out to be a Dumb vs Dumber contest.

[The Other Castro]

How is that even possible ?

There were only 5 Blacks in that poll.

If Cruz gets 29% of these 5 Blacks, that means he has the votes of 1.45 Blacks - 1 Black and an arm, leg and maybe the head of another Black person ...

Maybe they counted every black as 3/5 of a vote.

No, that would be polling racism ...

[Maxwell]

Looks like this race is turning out to be a Dumb vs Dumber contest.

There is nothing more dumb than underestimating Cruz. Or Trump, for that matter.

[King]

If the race were just Bush, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Trump:

Trump 32%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 16%
Bush 13%
Carson 11%

A three-way matchup would be more valuable here. I'm guessing by the time we get to SC, everyone but Trump, Cruz, and Rubio will have dropped.