NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot

[Skill and Chance]

Fringe of competitiveness. The only New England state to vote for a Republican nominee after 1988 suggests a solid Democratic firewall.

NH is quite similar to Arkansas. Being the only independent state in a solid D/R region, it just adjusted to its environment. It has always been a question of time only.

That's a good comparison. But New Hampshire isn't shy about voting for Republicans, unlike Arkansas with Democrats.

Then again, maybe Arkansas will be more receptive to Democrats under a Republican presidency.

Well, to say that it is going the way of Arkansas means that we would expect it to be voting like VT by the mid-2020's.  It's not impossible, but I don't think that's likely.

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure why people are surprised. NH's competitiveness has been inflated the past two cycles. McCain was affectionately referred to as the states third senator and Romney had it as one of his home states. None of the current GOP candidates have any advantages to make NH pseudo-competitive like the last two Republican candidates did. NH is not a swing state in a 50/50 election.

Yes.  I find Lean D status for NH in 2016 plausible because Romney was literally the best possible Republican nominee for NH and he still did worse there than nationally.  He was also pretty much the worst possible Republican for IA and OH, so I see trouble for Democrats there.  Obama and Romney were both strong candidates for VA and CO, so it will be interesting to see what those states do this time.