Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[RogueBeaver]

VIA's QC-Maritime service could be cancelled soon.

[RogueBeaver]

True. If any service cuts make headlines next year it'll be Canada Post.

No shortage of potential social issues this year but as usual no one will touch them unless the courts mandate it.

[RogueBeaver]

Charbonneau interim report gets released today. Won't discuss any charter stuff except to briefly mention that Bouchard warned about public opinion once someone gets fired and that the PLQ might as well endorse the whole thing.

[RogueBeaver]

This is beyond absurd: Trudeau said all Liberal senators will sit as Indies and if elected, he'll make "non-partisan" appointments.

[RogueBeaver]

Poilievre correctly calls it a smokescreen, says senators will still be "unelected" and even more unaccountable. How will they organize themselves? I hope Poilievre makes great hay with this, as usual, in QP this afternoon.

[RogueBeaver]

MSM seems to like it. Rules would have to be changed. The senators were naturally extremely pissed, or "a very difficult discussion" as JT put it. Hurts staffers too. Did I mention the Liberals opposed an NDP motion that proposed exactly what he did today, in October? Pathetic.

[RogueBeaver]

Nothing. Senate has enough of a discipline problem already, as I've discussed. These Liberals are still Liberals in all but the most formal sense. Imagine a hypothetical minority PM Trudeau next year, with a Tory supermajority in the Senate and hostile ex-Liberals. Here's an idea for Senate "reform": Parliament Act equivalent. Override mechanism is long overdue.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of Bieber, he's been arraigned on assault charges in Toronto.

New EKOS out: 33.2/29.7/24.3

[RogueBeaver]

Now they're fighting in public and are royally pissed at Trudeau.

[RogueBeaver]

Conrad Black has been stripped of his Order of Canada and PC by the government.

[RogueBeaver]

Poilievre confirmed on The House that he'll table the Fair Elections Act next week. That's probably our only non-budgetary bill of consequence this sitting.

[RogueBeaver]

Yves Ryan has died at 85.

PQ expects a spring election, not a winter one. Depends what happens with the budget. As I've said since the last election, fully expect Marois to win a second term. Question is majority or minority. I'm also tempted to believe that Couillard will lose his "leadership" (one Peq even compared him to Iggy in Le Devoir!) either through a PQ majority or like John Tory, losing his chosen seat.

Romanow doesn't like Sherbrooke.

[RogueBeaver]

He has Outremont, among the safest of safe seats, right now but wants an uphill battle in Roberval because he lives there. Strange considering he has no real geographic attachment like Charest with his hometown of Sherbrooke. Couillard has represented Montreal Island and Quebec City in the past.

[RogueBeaver]

Finally a real Ontario poll, from Nanos: Liberals lead 36/28/27. The Tories are at their lowest point since they were last in government. Though Greens are polling at 8, which probably wouldn't hold up in an election. Still, this is all MOE movement since last Nanos in November was 36/31/26.

[RogueBeaver]

I'll pay attention if the writs are dropped. We have next week's by-elections as another barometer, though I'm pessimistic as always. Rae, Harris and McGuinty all lost before winning, ditto Harper federally. All except McGuinty won their victories on the trail. My own advice for the Tories would be to talk nonstop economy/jobs and forcefully defend their white papers when challenged. By jobs I don't mean mindless populist nonsense like that "Million Jobs Bill."

[RogueBeaver]

NPDQ is open for business. I'm not a fan of our fragmented party system to begin with, but curious to see how Ducasse makes out.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm sure all 3 parties are taking internals to see how that works out. Also sure that the unions stick with the PQ. The party system hasn't been this fragmented since the Unionists faced a bunch of separatist then-microchallengers in the mid-'60s. Marois won't be a termite victim, but the PQ can't asphyxiate them either.

[RogueBeaver]

Elections bill out. Brazeau and Harb have been charged with fraud and breach of trust. QP should be fun.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotler is retiring next year as expected

[RogueBeaver]

Anthony Housefather will run and be the next Grit MP from Mont-Royal. Will miss Cotler, and had the privilege of meeting him a few years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

He's one of the best they could've gotten. Certainly the best politician unless they wanted to go for a prominent person from outside politics, like Cotler and his 2 predecessors were. It certainly isn't Cotler himself. More the trends of Jews, Asians and Liberal fortunes generally. I doubt there will be a nomination contest, not that Housefather would need a fist on the scale like Freeland in Toronto Centre.

[RogueBeaver]

Poilievre will run in Rideau-Carleton, Baird in Nepean.

[RogueBeaver]

CN strike will be pre-emptively shut down. 58-hour filibuster?

[RogueBeaver]

So just how screwed are the federal Conservatives under PM Stephen Harper?  Is their majority a lost cause in 2015?   

Polls aside, we're doing fairly well for a government about to seek a fourth term. Sure the climate's not ideal but the economy's decent and psephology favours Harper. This will be his 5th campaign as party leader, first for the others. Anything could happen but I'd bet any money on Harper being PM 2 years from today.

[RogueBeaver]

More skirmishes between Clement and PSAC. PQ will soon produce a White Paper and start consultations on sovereignty. They would only pull the referendum trigger with ever-elusive winning conditions, obviously. That's while they're throwing money around like Santa Claus in targeted regions, especially the Mauricie. Looks like a pre-campaign move but believe when seen, obviously.

Citizenship reform.