Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Oryxslayer]

538 liveblog is up: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

[Oryxslayer]

Heavy rain in NJ. Will it affect turnout?

The rain is supposed to be over by 2-3 so it’s only during the lowest-turnout part of the day anyway.

Plenty of studies have shown rain only has a miniscule effect on voting, and even smaller effect on partisanship. The times when rain does matter are those where the election doesn't matter, and we already can assume the result.

[Oryxslayer]

Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2).

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059874137009803264

Important to note that this is Eday voters, not overall results or the end margin (FL has a lot of registered dixiecrats and RINOs). But it is basically what we new from before, unless a unusual number of partisans break ranks, Florida as usual will come down to the Independent vote.

[Oryxslayer]

https://nyti.ms/2Da3IT9

NYT page is up, though I can't get the correct link on my phone - the link takes you to the NY State page.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe we should get the people who run the voting for American Idol and similar shows to handle our elections.

I don't want my elections to be rigged.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

Polls close at six...

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, the site hasn't crashed yet, so I guess that is good.

[Oryxslayer]

FTR this stickied thread was meant to serve as a general purpose election thread for the entire day (I've already merged other threads for the same reason).

Unless there is a mass outpouring of support for separate day/night threads, I'd rather keep everything together so the discussion isn't needlessly fragmented.

We will probably need a second and a third thread later, if AL-Sen is any guide. Thats if the forum doesn't crash OFC

[Oryxslayer]

Oh for the election to be over here where the exit polls are nice and accurate.

Anyway, not good news for the GOP if they are accurate, but a trainload of salt is required.

> UK Exit Polls
> Accurate

I see you Conveniently forget 2015

[Oryxslayer]

Exit Poll:  Vote today was to…
  Support Trump 26
  Oppose Trump 39
  Trump not a factor 33
   
2010
  Support Obama 23
  Oppose Obama 37
  Obama not a factor 38
   
2006
  Support Bush 22
  Oppose Bush 36
  Bush not a factor 39

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1059933843627622400

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1059936644768452608

[Oryxslayer]

It really should be illegal to broadcast exit polls until voting is completely over. Exit polls can influence the election.

And yes, this would bring up the first amendment but surely you can outlaw exit polls on the basis of election interference.

Eh, some countries Ban exit/same day polls. The end result is that they just end up published in neighbors papers under disguised names.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1059930775334895617

Here is a Texas rumor...

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that Fox did their own exit poll this year

[Oryxslayer]

They have more numbers scrolling in their chyron, 58% think country headed in wrong track, Trump trade policies 50-39 hurt more than help.

Ah, that is much more consistent with the CNN/MSNBC exits.

Yeah they probably just picked the best Qs for their spin and put them front and center.

[Oryxslayer]

LETS GO DONNELLY!!!!

AND McGrath!!

[Oryxslayer]

CNN exit poll:

48% say Trump's immigration policies are too tough
48% say not tough enough or about right

Which matches Fox's Wall question. So similar data, but presented differently.

[Oryxslayer]

There is Lexington.

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ has MgGrath Up 54-44

[Oryxslayer]

For those wondering, DDHQ uses a different reporting site then AP. Also, CNN has McGrath up now

[Oryxslayer]

A couple notes about the undervote:

Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum
Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis

Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race.

So do that mean it’s possible that this error is basically a wash in regards to the vote total for each candidate?

Or it could be that ~10K voters split tickets Nelson/DeSantis, probably over Red Tide issues. Makes sense considering how DeSantis did on average better then Scott. 10K out of ~690,000-700,000 total votes gives about .15-.2%, roughly the gap between the two. So more likely a majority of the 20K total are Dems.

[Oryxslayer]

What makes no sense is the number of Nelson-DeSantis voters in Broward. There is no explanation for it

Red Tide. Also, its only .2% of the total county, which is in line with Desantis's outpreformance of Scott statewide. Don't see why there wouldn't be 10K Nelson/DeSantis voters with the present information.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1060664398862303232

This is where we are right now in the senate expectations game.

[Oryxslayer]

Maricopa is dropping at 5 right?

Between 5/5:30 apparently, which is in 7-37 minutes.