2012 Elections in Germany (user search)
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 116114 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2012, 12:12:18 PM »
Quote from: Sharif Hashemite on May 06, 2012, 12:05:42 PM
What on earth did the FDP do to be able to win such a good result?

They have a good frontrunner with Kubicki.

Kubicki has a 54% approval rating in the ARD exit poll, compared to 18% for the guy who heads the federal FDP (what was his name ? Roessler ?) ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #51 on: May 06, 2012, 12:34:03 PM »
Quote from: Hollande-inspired avatar change on May 06, 2012, 12:25:39 PM
For the past ten years, Wolfgang Kubicki has said in every interview that most of what the FDP federal leadership does is total bullsh**t. Hence his high credibility.

Other than saying that the federal FDP leadership is total bullsh*t, are there any differences in the state FDP and federal FDP when it comes to policy ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #52 on: May 06, 2012, 12:37:45 PM »
Latest ARD projection:



Latest ZDF projection:



No change when it comes to seats.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #53 on: May 06, 2012, 12:40:16 PM »
A SPD-led coalition with the Greens and the SSW would probably be the best for the state and also what voters want, because SPD-frontrunner Albig leads the CDU-guy in the direct vote for Governor by almost 2:1 in the Exit Poll.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #54 on: May 09, 2012, 03:00:12 AM »
Kurt Beck, the premier of Germany’s Rhineland-Palatinate regional state, plans to step down this month, Tagesspiegel reported, without saying where it obtained the information.

Beck, a member of the Social Democratic Party, is likely to propose Roger Lewentz, the state’s interior minister, as his successor, the newspaper said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-09/rhineland-palatinate-premier-to-step-down-tagesspiegel-reports.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #55 on: May 09, 2012, 03:06:14 AM »
Quote from: Franzl on May 09, 2012, 03:03:52 AM
I'll actually miss the guy. Surprising.

Maybe he's planning for 2013 ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #56 on: May 11, 2012, 11:03:39 PM »
Quote from: The Demon Barber of Bain Street on May 11, 2012, 10:28:58 PM
Quote from: Minion of Midas on May 07, 2012, 02:46:55 PM
Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".

Danish Traffic Light?

SPD (Red) + SSW (Yellow) + Greens
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #57 on: May 12, 2012, 11:30:20 AM »
Prediction:

37.0% SPD
31.0% CDU
11.5% Greens
  7.5% Pirates
  5.5% FDP
  4.0% Left
  1.0% Pro NRW
  2.5% Others

48.5-44.0 majority for SPD-Greens.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #58 on: May 13, 2012, 03:05:23 AM »
election.de projection of direct seats:



In 2010, election.de got 116 of 128 seats correct with their prediction.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #59 on: May 13, 2012, 12:00:04 PM »
Just came back from a visit.

So, the 2 Red-Green Schuldenmuttis got re-elected in a landslide ?

FUCK YEAH !

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #60 on: May 13, 2012, 12:05:36 PM »
Quote from: Franzl on May 13, 2012, 12:02:18 PM
Wasn't aware you were that interested in NRW, Tender.., Smiley

Sure, where else would you find Red-Green coalitions in states with 18 Million people ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #61 on: May 13, 2012, 12:08:02 PM »
BTW, what's up with that Currywurst poster from the SPD ? Is that a real campaign poster or a joke poster ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #62 on: May 13, 2012, 12:09:35 PM »
New ARD projection:



New ZDF projection:
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #63 on: May 13, 2012, 12:11:27 PM »
Changes compared with the 2010 election:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #64 on: May 13, 2012, 12:14:20 PM »
The direct vote for Prime Minister numbers are just brutal:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #65 on: May 13, 2012, 12:17:57 PM »
BTW: Who will likely follow Röttgen now as CDU boss ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #66 on: May 13, 2012, 12:20:12 PM »
From the ZDF Exit Poll:

"Who is closer to the people ?"

65% Kraft
  3% Röttgen
21% No difference

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #67 on: May 13, 2012, 12:22:33 PM »
Women voted:

40 SPD
26 CDU
14 Greens
  8 FDP
  6 Pirates
  3 Left

Men voted:

36 SPD
25 CDU 
11 Pirates
11 Greens
  9 FDP
  4 Left
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #68 on: May 13, 2012, 01:08:46 PM »

Negligible.

At a street fight recently they only managed to get 15 of their people to beat up 800 Salafists.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #69 on: May 13, 2012, 01:14:09 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 01:08:46 PM

Negligible.

At a street fight recently they only managed to get 15 of their people to beat up 800 Salafists.

You probably have no clue what I'm talking about, so:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #70 on: May 13, 2012, 01:20:18 PM »
Quote from: TheNationalist on May 13, 2012, 01:17:30 PM
actually i do, i have a blog on the far right in europe and that is why i am here and asking about the pro-nrw...  id also like to know if how the NPD are doing...

For results, check this:

http://karten.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/WahlClient
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #71 on: May 13, 2012, 01:24:42 PM »
Quote from: TheNationalist on May 13, 2012, 01:23:32 PM
Quote from: Minion of Midas on May 13, 2012, 01:21:17 PM
Quote from: TheNationalist on May 13, 2012, 01:17:30 PM
actually i do, i have a blog on the far right in europe and that is why i am here and asking about the pro-nrw...  id also like to know if how the NPD are doing...
In both the constituencies wholly in, pro NRW and NPD are the two strongest "others", but not by much and not doing at all well or any better than last time. They are not doing well enough to get any sort of mainstream media attention, so official results are all I have.

Do you have any numbers for me Midas?

Just click on that link I posted.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #72 on: May 14, 2012, 09:02:52 AM »
Quote from: DL on May 14, 2012, 08:58:10 AM
Hannelore seems to be by far the most popular SPD politician in Germany these days. Has there been any talk of making her the SPD candidate for Chancellor against Merkel next year??

Yes, there has been, but she has ruled it categorically out and will remain in NRW for the next 5 years - which is good.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #73 on: May 14, 2012, 09:12:24 AM »
Maps:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahlergebnisse-landtagswahl-nordrhein-westfalen-2012-a-829466.html

Click on "Wahlkreise" (electoral districts).

"Erststimme" means "direct vote for a district candidate", while "Zweitstimme" means "party list vote".
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #74 on: May 16, 2012, 11:58:31 PM »
Lower Saxony seems to be next for the takeover:
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