538 Model Megathread

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The first debate is crucial to Hillary's chances

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Fox News Poll is now added. Trump moves up to 42.4%

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538 model is way too flexible this time around. Or it might just be the news cycle

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Does Trump have a path without PA, VA and NC?

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he MUST win all of these states in this scenario:
FL, OH, WI, CO, IA, NV, and NH

in other words, realistically no.

rafta,
May I suggest that you visit and look at The New York Times, The Upshot, "Who will be President" analysis and tools.
Here is the link : http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

Scroll down to the very bottom, and look at the section "Paths to the White House."
Hover your mouse over each of the check-marks, to get a reading on how each scenario might work. (PS: The larger the check-mark, the higher probability that that scenario will happen.)  The entire page has some neat information, so give it a look.

It would be very tough (if he's already lost PA/VA/NC, winning all the other swing states would be like drawing to an inside straight flush) but this would get him to 270 exactly:

Thanks!

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Looks like 538 entered the latest NM poll incorrectly.  They have it 45 31 24 when it should be 35 31 25.  The Clinton lead is 4 and not 14.

They fixed it now

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Even Rasmussen has Trump down by 3

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Emerson has a Republican bias because they only call landlines but still has Hillary up by 2 in AZ.

I doubt AZ will go blue in the end but she seems to be making progress.

AZ and GA are not going to go blue. i think her resources are better spent in shoring up the firewall and trying to flip Ohio.

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God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

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Can McMuffin/Clinton win Utah... would that close any feasible path for Trump to the presidency?

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Now I think about it, when Silver went on a mini-rant during a recent podcast, emphasising how big he thought Trump's chance of winning was, he sounded genuinely scared. I wonder if he sees it as part of his mission to get Democrats to take the threat seriously and go out and vote. If so, I can't help feeling there are better ways of doing it.

He applied punditry over his own model's numbers during the primary and is now overcompensating for it. The model is still accurate IMO

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Now I think about it, when Silver went on a mini-rant during a recent podcast, emphasising how big he thought Trump's chance of winning was, he sounded genuinely scared. I wonder if he sees it as part of his mission to get Democrats to take the threat seriously and go out and vote. If so, I can't help feeling there are better ways of doing it.

He applied punditry over his own model's numbers during the primary...

Not really.  He didn't have a model during the primaries.  The reason being, as he put it, modeling the primaries is too difficult.  Once we were deep into the primaries, he made some toy models based on the demographics of people who had voted so far, but by that time he was acknowledging that Trump was the favorite.

He didn't have a overall prediction model like the presidential race but he did have a per state model which took into account all the polls done for the state. And those numbers were right almost all the time and they predicted that Trump will take all the states that he did.

What he didnt account was the momentum that Trump gained from the lead and that the rest of GOP base eventually coalesced around him

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To be fair, that Huffo piece was garbage.  Nate silver should be judged on the accuracy of his model post election. That complaining about unskewing was bogus. Without adjustment and weighting, all models will basically look like the rcp average

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doesn't philly have like a million polling booths.

 The DNC should still arrange buses for voters

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If trump wins, Nate Silver will get plaudits despite being wrong. If Hillary wins by a big margin, Silver will no longer have status as first among equals among predictive modelling sites

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His website is top of Google. Well presented and easy to understand.

He is making a fortune out of website advertising alone.

Wang needs to work on this. His name recognition is negligible compared to Silver. And the PEC site has a poor user interface