When will Florida no longer be a swing state?

[Wrenchmob]

The eternal battleground

[kwabbit]

While I never see it becoming a Safe D/R state, I would say that given the results of 2018/the polling in 2020, it does seem to have trended R. Part of this is Florida's inelasticity, but it does seem the GOP has put together a good coalition in Florida. Trump's underperformance with Cubans made it close in 2016, but his gains with WWC + renewed support from Cubans puts the GOP in the game even in very strong Dem wave years like 2018/2020. Previously Florida had voted about 3 points to the right of the nation but it seems to have shifted to about 7 points to the right the past two cycles. This might not continue, but Florida does not have that many of College-educated Whites that have been fleeing the GOP over the past decade, nor does it have a booming, hip metro to attract tons of educated Whites and Asians like Atlanta to drag it left.

When Cuban support for the GOP weakened cycle after cycle, it seemed like that would provide a path for the Dems to turn Florida blue, but the fact that the Cubans snapped back so strongly for the GOP quashed that hope.

If any major state was compatible with GOP gains with working-class whites and Hispanics, it's Florida.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Probably when polarization abates and the concept of swing state exits the lexicon.

[Agonized-Statism]

Climate change will devastate the economy and retirees will stop coming in droves in a few decades' time. The affluent, which includes Miami Cubans, will leave.

Regardless, there will be a realignment among seniors as Boomers die off and Gen X and the Millennials retire (if they can). Millennials in particular are pushing 40 and most of you haven't magically become Republicans like the Boomers promised, so I doubt you'll be any different when you get wrinkly.

[Hope For A New Era]

Not anytime soon. It has all these demographic variables that all tend to more or less cancel each other out, and its massive population keeps it inelastic.

I suspect this arrangement will remain until climate change really gets going. Assuming the parties haven't changed too much, I imagine it will become Titanium D pretty fast after that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Australian left, 20 years ago:

I suspect this arrangement will remain until climate change really gets going. Assuming the parties haven't changed too much, I imagine it will become Titanium D pretty fast after that.

[Former President tack50]

When it is underwater due to climate change.

[President Johnson]

When it is underwater due to climate change.

Then it will be a blue state.

[Cyrusman]

When it is underwater due to climate change.

Then it will be a blue state.

Definitely did not expect a 4 point Trump win