Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 36,667
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« on: August 22, 2014, 09:11:18 AM » |
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« edited: August 22, 2014, 09:22:47 AM by MooMooMoo »
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At this point, SSM is going to SCOTUS, where Kennedy will be the deciding vote to legalize gay marriage nationwide. If SSM loses, SCOTUS will have a hard time explaining how the freedom of marriage doesn't incorporate to states given their past rulings and the unanimous or near-unanimous rulings below them. If I were them, I would just not hear it unless an appellate court rules against SSM.
Plus, ruling against SSM would be risky. It could give the Republicans room to say "I told you so" and might might make "independents and squishy Republicans" rethink their new-found support for SSM and reinvigorate the Religious Right and make 2016 that much easier for Republicans. Last but not least, it might make marriage equality take years, if not decades, or even ever to be accepted everywhere.
On the other hand, despite the superficial and legalistic differences between the cases, many people will think the court is just jerking off and that could allow for public opinion to further solidify around gay marriages. Such a ruling could help in 2016 in socially moderate and progressive states where Democrats are having trouble organizing. I think Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio could have SSM on the ballot to help Hillary.
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