2013 Elections in Germany

[Zanas]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:


State

36% [+3] SPD
24%  [-3] Left
22% [+2] CDU
  7% [+1] Greens
  3%  [-4] FDP
  2% [+2] Pirates
  6%  [-1] Others

What kind of coalition does that make ? Incumbent Red-red or previous Red-black ?

[Franknburger]

New unemployment report: 6.7% unemployment in December 2012, +0.2% against November, +0.1% against December 2011.
East-West split remains, but softens a bit: West 5.8% (+0.2% against 2011),. East 10.3% (-0.3%). Employment gains highest in Berlin (-0.4% against 2011), Saxony (-0.4%) and Brandenburg (-0.3%). Biggest umemployment increase in Saarland (+0.5%) and NRW (+0.3%). Lower Saxony unchanged at 6.4%, Bavaria 3.6% (+0.2%).

PDF map by county and detailed data can be found here:
http://www.arbeitsagentur.de/zentraler-Content/A01-Allgemein-Info/A011-Presse/Publikation/pdf/Landkarten-Eckwerte-2012-12.pdf

[Franknburger]

Newly published survey on renewable energy (TNS infratest. 4.060 respondents):

"Increasing the use of renewable energy is important (24%) / very or extremely important (69%)"


Opinion on the recent increase of the renewable energy levy (payable by all non-industrial consumers) by the federal government to 5 €ct / kwH is more ambiguous: 51% deem the increase to be too high, 44% acceptable, 2% still too low (2% no opinion). Acdptance varies strongly by state, and is especially low in Eastern Germany.
 

[Tender Branson]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:


State

36% [+3] SPD
24%  [-3] Left
22% [+2] CDU
  7% [+1] Greens
  3%  [-4] FDP
  2% [+2] Pirates
  6%  [-1] Others

What kind of coalition does that make ? Incumbent Red-red or previous Red-black ?

I don't know how the coalition climate is, if it is good then probably Red-Red, if it is worn out then probably Red-Black like before.

[Tender Branson]

New Niedersachsen poll by Infratest dimap for NDR (they vote on Jan. 20):



Governor David McAllister (CDU) leads big in the direct vote for Governor:



Governor David McAllister (CDU) gets a 64-25 job approval rating:



Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) gets a 68-31 job approval rating:



SPD-frontrunner Peer Steinbrück gets a 52-38 job approval rating:



FDP-leader Philipp Rösler gets a 20-72 job approval rating:



Green-leader Jürgen Trittin gets a 52-38 job approval rating:



A CDU-FDP coalition would be ... 65-32 bad for Niedersachsen:



A SPD-Green coalition would be ... 52-44 good for Niedersachsen:



A Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD) would be ... 52-44 bad for Niedersachsen:



A CDU-Green coalition would be ... 73-23 bad for Niedersachsen:



http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/umfragen/niedersachsentrend149.html

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

[Franzl]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

Because Niedersachsen is in the west.

When the party is polling 7% nationally, that's to be expected.

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

Because Niedersachsen is in the west.

When the party is polling 7% nationally, that's to be expected.

Got it. One other thing. Why does a Black-Green coalition poll so low? It's even worse than the CDU-FDP one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

Because Niedersachsen is in the west.

When the party is polling 7% nationally, that's to be expected.

Got it. One other thing. Why does a Black-Green coalition poll so low? It's even worse than the CDU-FDP one.

Because it makes no sense whatsoever?

[minionofmidas]

Because nobody in the core votership of either party feels anything but contempt for the notion except as a last resort. (Journalists and younger career politicians tick very differently, of course.)

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, CDU/CSU has reached a new record-high (best poll result since November 2007) in the new Infratest dimap poll:

41% CDU/CSU (West: 42%, East: 39%)
29% SPD (West: 30%, East: 24%)
12% Greens (West: 13%, East: 8%)
  6% Left (West: 3%, East: 17%)
  4% FDP (West: 4%, East: 4%)
  4% Pirates (West: 4%, East: 4%)
  4% Others (West: 4%, East: 4%)

47% SPD-Greens-Left vs. 45% CDU-CSU-FDP

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Linke, FDP and Pirates all ended up right under 5%?

[Franzl]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Linke, FDP and Pirates all ended up right under 5%?

A CDU absolute majority is possible with that scenario...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Linke, FDP and Pirates all ended up right under 5%?

A CDU absolute majority is possible with that scenario...

I'd actually prefer that, by far, to another black-yellow coalition.

[Franzl]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Linke, FDP and Pirates all ended up right under 5%?

A CDU absolute majority is possible with that scenario...

I'd actually prefer that, by far, to another black-yellow coalition.

Well yes, of course.

[Franknburger]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

Because Niedersachsen is in the west.

When the party is polling 7% nationally, that's to be expected.

Got it. One other thing. Why does a Black-Green coalition poll so low? It's even worse than the CDU-FDP one.

Because it makes no sense whatsoever?

That is a pretty simplified answer.  The more complete one:

1) Niedersachsen has made the experience that a state-level Red-Green coalition can actually work (Schröder-Trittin from 1990-1998), unlike many other states, in which such coaltitions typically got killed by the SPD. In addition, most major cities (Hannover, Osnabrück, Göttingen, Lüneburg) have a long tradition of reasonably well-working red-green alliances, while the 2006 black-green "test balloon" in Oldenburg failed miserably.
Thus there should be quite a Red-Green preference in the green-leaning part of the electorate (including potential voters for Pirates and the Left) - and with SPD leaners anyway.

2.) Niedersachsen's party alignments are still strongly driven by the catholic-protestant divide. Compare, e.g.. party votes in the 2009 federal election for the neighbouring constituencies of Cloppenburg-Vechta (CDU 54.5, SPD 16.5, Green 5.3), and Diepholz-Nienburg (CDU 33.8, SPD 27.7, Green 10.0). Socio-economically, these two constituencies are much alike (rural/ small town, farm-based, strong agro-processing and agricultural machine-building), but the former is majority catholic, while the latter is protestant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldenburg_M%C3%BCnsterland. Interactive map for 2009 results per constituency can be found here: http://www.nls.niedersachsen.de/BW2009/start.htm

Unlike in other states. e.g. Baden-Würtenberg, the Lower Saxony Greens have never made inroads into the catholic part of the local electorate. To the opposite, their top candidate, Stefan Wenzel, is member of the Synode of the German Evangelical (Lutheran) Church. As such, reluctance of the rural / catholic part of CDU voters to go along with the Greens is quite understandable.

3.) Another key constituency of the state's CDU is "Heimatvertriebene" (post WW II displaced persons from former German territories in the East). In 1950, they accounted for 27% of the State's total population, concentrated in the central eastern part of the State (roughly everything east of the middle Weser - Hameln to Verden), and, to a lesser extent, along the Elbe and upper Weser towards Wilhelmshaven and Oldenburg. Their integration into the CDU did not occur immediately, but via several other parties - BHE, DP, and, most importantly, the NPD in the late 1960s / early 1970s.  Thus, you still find a (demographically decreasing) number of CDU politicians in Eastern Lower Saxony with late 1960s/ early 1970s NPD past, the most prominent of which is the current major of Brunswick (CDU, ruling with FDP support).  This, in turn, is not pushing enthusiasm for any kind of cooperation with the CDU in the left-leaning part of the electorate in central-eastern Lower Saxony.

The above also explains why a 64% job approval will most likely not be enough for David McAllister to keep his job. There are just too many people in Lower Saxony who will never vote for a guy from the "black with brown dots"-party, irrespectively of his personality and performance. And the FDP, which might otherwise help him to the post, has burnt its image nationally too badly to obtain a meaningful number of swing voters.

[Leftbehind]

Been appreciating your insight, Franknburger.

[minionofmidas]

*is motivated by above post to check newbie's profile to see where in Germany he's from*

Oh yeah, and a belated "welcome to the forum!" is in order, too!

[Franknburger]

*is motivated by above post to check newbie's profile to see where in Germany he's from*

Oh yeah, and a belated "welcome to the forum!" is in order, too!

Thanks for the welcome! Newbie was born and grew up in Hannover (surprise, surprise !). studied and lived for many years in Hamburg (when not travelling the world working as a consultant), and is since more than ten years residing in Schleswig-Holstein's "bacon belt" northeast of Hamburg.

On a further disclosure: In my youth, I was among the founding members of the GAL, after getting fed up with the way my school-mate Olaf Scholz was running the local JuSo group. However, the GAL somehow lost me when they computerised their membership files, and I never bothered to remind them about me ... 

[Tender Branson]

*is motivated by above post to check newbie's profile to see where in Germany he's from*

Oh yeah, and a belated "welcome to the forum!" is in order, too!

Thanks for the welcome! Newbie was born and grew up in Hannover (surprise, surprise !). studied and lived for many years in Hamburg (when not travelling the world working as a consultant), and is since more than ten years residing in Schleswig-Holstein's "bacon belt" northeast of Hamburg.

On a further disclosure: In my youth, I was among the founding members of the GAL, after getting fed up with the way my school-mate Olaf Scholz was running the local JuSo group. However, the GAL somehow lost me when they computerised their membership files, and I never bothered to remind them about me ... 

Good to see.

So you must be at least 50 years old ?

50-60 I guess ?

[ERvND]

A great analysis, Franknburger. Two things aside and in addition to it:

3.) Another key constituency of the state's CDU is "Heimatvertriebene" (post WW II displaced persons from former German territories in the East). In 1950, they accounted for 27% of the State's total population, concentrated in the central eastern part of the State (roughly everything east of the middle Weser - Hameln to Verden), and, to a lesser extent, along the Elbe and upper Weser towards Wilhelmshaven and Oldenburg. Their integration into the CDU did not occur immediately, but via several other parties - BHE, DP, and, most importantly, the NPD in the late 1960s / early 1970s.  Thus, you still find a (demographically decreasing) number of CDU politicians in Eastern Lower Saxony with late 1960s/ early 1970s NPD past, the most prominent of which is the current major of Brunswick (CDU, ruling with FDP support).  This, in turn, is not pushing enthusiasm for any kind of cooperation with the CDU in the left-leaning part of the electorate in central-eastern Lower Saxony.

First: It has never been thoroughly proven that the German refugees voted overwhelmingly for right-wing parties. There are also different instances; in rural southern Germany, for example, it were refugees who built up the local Social Democratic Party chapters after the war. So, in my opinion, the story went the other way round: Leftist, liberal and centrist refugees tended to abandon their eastern heritage rather quickly. Right-wing refugees, on the other hand, would emphasize their East European roots and their restorative claims. Both led to the popular impression that all refugees were and are right-wing.

Second: By now, the political and electoral influence of the organized refugees ("Heimatvertriebene") is marginal at best. They never really managed to pass their identity and ideas to the following generations, so when the last "real" refugees die, it will be basically over for them. As you said, however, their extremist right-wing image is still very much alive. Especially for the Greens and The Left, the "Heimatvertriebene" are a popular boogeyman, and every CDU politician mentioning the matter will immediately be accused of nazi connections. This doesn't correspond to the real political impact of the last refugees, though.

[Franknburger]

*is motivated by above post to check newbie's profile to see where in Germany he's from*

Oh yeah, and a belated "welcome to the forum!" is in order, too!

Thanks for the welcome! Newbie was born and grew up in Hannover (surprise, surprise !). studied and lived for many years in Hamburg (when not travelling the world working as a consultant), and is since more than ten years residing in Schleswig-Holstein's "bacon belt" northeast of Hamburg.

On a further disclosure: In my youth, I was among the founding members of the GAL, after getting fed up with the way my school-mate Olaf Scholz was running the local JuSo group. However, the GAL somehow lost me when they computerised their membership files, and I never bothered to remind them about me ...  

Good to see.

So you must be at least 50 years old ?

50-60 I guess ?

Turning 50 this year.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Widespread discussion within the FDP, that the results of the Lower Saxony election are going to trigger the resignation of federal chairman Philipp Rösler.

Who's next in line? Rainer Brüderle, I suppose. Probably also an improvement over Rösler and Westerwelle, since Brüderle somewhat maintains an aura of authenticity and a certain folksy charm. His speeches are also almost incomprehensible, which can't really hurt when you're a FDP politician these days (Brüderle has a tendency to mumble a lot, combined with a Rhenish accent).

[minionofmidas]

Widespread discussion within the FDP, that the results of the Lower Saxony election are going to trigger the resignation of federal chairman Philipp Rösler.

Who's next in line? Rainer Brüderle, I suppose. Probably also an improvement over Rösler and Westerwelle, since Brüderle somewhat maintains an aura of authenticity and a certain folksy charm. His speeches are also almost incomprehensible, which can't really hurt when you're a FDP politician these days (Brüderle has a tendency to mumble a lot, combined with a Rhenish accent).

Being a notorious wino doesn't help either.

[Vosem]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)