Why is Obama coming to PA

[J. J.]

O.K., Pennsylvania is an important state.  Obama lost it in primary.

We have a number of polls showing Obama up, some by double digits. 

Why did he spend the day in Phila?  He's obviously not going after leaners; there are not that many in Phila.  He's not going to the rest of the state.  He could be trying to drive up Phila turnout, but why does he have to drive it up?

[J. J.]

Because it's a huge prize on Election Day, and despite the fact he is comfortably ahead, he cannot take it for granted.

21 electoral voters and its history as a swing state is why Obama is there.

If the polling is right, he doesn't need to and can go to FL or VA instead.

[J. J.]

Because it's a huge prize on Election Day, and despite the fact he is comfortably ahead, he cannot take it for granted.

21 electoral voters and its history as a swing state is why Obama is there.

If the polling is right, he doesn't need to and can go to FL or VA instead.

I get what you are trying to do here.

You are trying to convince yourself that the state is close, the polls are wrong, and that is why he is back in Pennsylvania.

You are entitled to your opinion, J.J. Perhaps Pennsylvania is close. But there have been numerous polls, from both sides of the aisle, that have shown PA a double digit race at this point.

No, I've predicted PA for Obama.  I'd say the same thing about Iowa and McCain; he's losing Iowa, I've predicted an Iowa loss, but he's still going there.

I note that you have not attempted to answer my question.

Ernest.  In the area where he was you have PA-1, (Brady), PA-2 (Fattah), and PA-13 (Schwartz).  They do not need coattails.  

[J. J.]

From my Philly peeps, I have heard Obama's been running advertising in Philly all day and night.  About 10-1 the McCain ads.

Yes, he's blasting them, probably more than McCain.  I wouldn't say 10 to 1.

[J. J.]

From my Philly peeps, I have heard Obama's been running advertising in Philly all day and night.  About 10-1 the McCain ads.

Yes, he's blasting them, probably more than McCain.  I wouldn't say 10 to 1.

Well, what would you say?  I only know what I do through my two friends who live in the area (who happen to both be Republicans, oddly enough).

Maybe 3-5 to 1.  Ten to one would be me not remembering a McCain commercial.

[J. J.]

There are basically three questions:

1.  Why is Obama hitting PA?

2.  Why is McCain hitting Iowa?

3.  Why hasn't Obama released his September fund raising?

[J. J.]

If the Ayres ads from McCain hurt, where, out of states that matter, would they hurt the most?

That's hard.  OH, PA, maybe MI, WI, MN, and possibly IA.

[J. J.]

If the Ayres ads from McCain hurt, where, out of states that matter, would they hurt the most?

That's hard.  OH, PA, maybe MI, WI, MN, and possibly IA.

That's why he's there.

But we're not seeing any evidence that the Ayers ad has hurt in PA.

[J. J.]

He's just trying to rub it in.

Then he loses. 

[J. J.]

He's just trying to rub it in.

Then he loses. 

No, no he doesn't. He wins. Big.

By double digits.

Every minute he spends in in PA, he can't be in another state.  Obama could get every vote in PA, or win by a margin of one vote, and he'd still only get 21 Electoral Votes.

You really don't get it, do you?

[J. J.]

JJ, I respect you, but I think this campaign has put the blinkers on you a bit - and a lot of other people.

Obam,a is in PA because it's a very important state, one he needs to win, and one which historically is a close one. Sure, he's leading, but it never hurts to solidify a lead, plus excite potential donors.

McCain is in Iowa because it is one of the states that he could win if there is an event to shake up this election (just as PA is a state that Obama could theoretically lose).

As for the September fundraising, I'm not sure. Probably it's either way above expectations or a bit below, so his campaign is waiting for the right point in the news cycle either way.

It's not blinders but Obama is spending a lot of time in PA, where his poll numbers look great (they are comparable to CA), and where I have predicted he'd win, even prior to the economic problems.  Hillary is also being deployed in PA (Montco) today, though that makes some sense.  She'll do the most good in a state where she won.

It the reverse for Iowa with McCain.  His poll numbers are bad there, and I've predicted he'd lose there.  Neither move makes sense, from the outside.

As for money, the RNC raised $66 M.  Obama is running out of time to soften the blow if it's bad, because he has to report it on October 20.

[J. J.]

Something tells me that no blow softening will be needed   And my above post explains both moves outside of "internal polling shows something different"

Hugh suggested it.

I cannot figure out why Obama has suppressed it, when he hasn't in other months.  The whole timing argument doesn't work, because it is scheduled to be filed next week.

It does make any sense to spend the amount of time, more so than money, in PA, if the numbers are correct.

[J. J.]

There are basically three questions:

1.  Why is Obama hitting PA?

2.  Why is McCain hitting Iowa?

both campaigns are aware that polling is fluid and that anything can happen.  They can't spend too much money in individual markets - they need to be ready in the event that some dynamic of the race changes.  If Obama screws up in the debate PA could become competitive - some change in the world economy or Iraq, etc. could alter the race and it would be foolhardy to move out of states on the cusp with large numbers of EV's too soon.

McCain in Iowa is also partly for perception. To give up on a state won by Bush in 2004 would look bad.  But keeping Iowa could also preserve him the election if he holds onto NV, OH, VA, FL.  He has to compete SOMEWHERE.

I'm not big on the "perception" argument.  The point is, I would not call Iowa even close to being competitive.  McCain personally has never been popular there and skipped the caucuses.  

The thing in PA, is as has been pointed out,  McCain has never polled ahead; at best, after the convention, there was a tie.  Only assuming a large Bradley Effect (and I'm not), would PA be close.

[J. J.]

I tried to look at this from as many angles as possible.  My opinion... there is nothing to read out of this.  He is here because he can afford to be.  The only thing that would qualify as an answer at this point is if some massive scandal that we don't know of is about to break, in which case, there is no point in speculating right now.

I want to think there is a chance we might get back into this thing, but I'm just not seeing it.  Something would have to happen in the next  to totally change the dynamics of this race.  McCain has run a terrible campaign.  He turned the wrong way around every corner.

boy its good to see one republican pennsylvanian not making too much out of Obama's PA tour...

Somethings up, but it isn't a scandal.  OH, FL, VA, even NC, I could understand.  But something is up in PA.

[J. J.]

If you give the impression that you're sure of one state, it's a good way to lose some points (see McCain in VA, NC, FL) and Obama cannot afford it in PA, where McCain is advertising quite big.

And campaigning in PA can be useful for OH, IN and WV as well because of geographical and/or sociological closeness.

Biden campaigns in PA more than Obama. Obama is also campaigning in VA and NC and OH a lot.

1.  Obama is outspending him in PA.

2.  PA is no even close to IN.

3.  WV and OH are about 300 miles from where Obama and Biden are.  They are not even close to the same media market (this helps in DE and NJ, but these are solidly for Obama).

[J. J.]

Why is Palin in NE-2? 

And Indiana?

My guess is that, in both cases their internals showed weakness.  My guess is that Obama's internals showed weakness in PA.  Right now, McCain's polling in IN is lower than Obama's in PA.

[J. J.]

McCain is advertising quite big in comparison with his own resources....

Actually, no, Obama is advertising quite big in comparison with his own resources as well.

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First Obama isn't going to those small towns in PA, but Phila, and those small towns in IN are not affected by a rally in Philly.

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If he's worried about defending PA (and NJ), then his internal polling is showing a problem, or at least a potential one.  That is the only reason I can see for him doing this.

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Mypalfish swimming past.

[J. J.]

ok....someone might have already thought of this, but....Obama is pushing PA hard because he knows given the status of the rest of the states, he can't lose if he holds PA.

But he can win PA and lose the election.  I for one do not believe that there is a 10-15 Bradley Effect in PA (9.99 maybe).

[J. J.]

ok....someone might have already thought of this, but....Obama is pushing PA hard because he knows given the status of the rest of the states, he can't lose if he holds PA.

But he can win PA and lose the election. 

I think Obama is bound to pick up more Red/Purple states that just IA, NM, NH.  Obama has a very good shot at also picking off at least one out of VA, CO, NV.

I agree, but in all of those states, his numbers are lower.  PA is a "must win" for Obama, if he loses those other states.  The thing is, if he doesn't win those other states, PA won't make a difference.

My guess is, his internal polling says "You don't got a friend in Pennsylvania," to use a play on the old state slogan.

[J. J.]

Obama has always played it safe and not taken risks in every major decision he's made in this entire general election campaign. So playing it safe and ensuring he's got 270 EVs nailed down rock solid shouldn't come as any surprise for him.

He took a risk fundraising.

[J. J.]

Obama has always played it safe and not taken risks in every major decision he's made in this entire general election campaign. So playing it safe and ensuring he's got 270 EVs nailed down rock solid shouldn't come as any surprise for him.

He took a risk fundraising.

Yeah, somewhat, though a pretty low risk one.

Not sure what that has to do with his being in PA, though. Other than that the fact that one paid off now affords him the luxury of spending time in "safe" states like PA.

We don't know if that fund raising plan has paid off as of yet.  Obama still hasn't released the numbers.

[J. J.]

The countdown is in my signature.

I'm waiting Obama!  Fess up your <50 million number!

I'm still waiting for it.

We've seen the various Democratic committees borrowing, and the RNC raising $66 M, McCain getting $84 M.

[J. J.]

Dont they think its like $100mil?

The rumors have ranged from $70M to $100M+.  There is also the possibility of Obama borrowing, as some Democratic committees are doing.

[J. J.]

BIDEN IS GOING TO HOLD A RALLY IN WASHINGTON STATE


IN PLAY??

I'd love for you to show me the race in Phila that is in play. 

[J. J.]

Why not? Al Gore was in Chicago a few days before the 2000 election.

He basically camped out in PA and FL, as Bush did.  It was only that stupid attempt to go to CA that almost took out Bush.

I don't think Obama is stupid, so I'm guessing his internals showed it was closer that public polls were showing.