Downballot, New Jersey is really not as solidly Democratic as people seem to think it is. Guadagno still got 42% despite Christie's approval being in the teens, and the congressional delegation was evenly split as recently as 2016. Last November, Republicans managed to hold all their legislative seats and even make net gains despite Trump's toxicity in the state. And this was after Murphy campaigned for Bramnick and Munoz's opponents in a Clinton +10 district! The NJGOP is in much better shape than their counterparts in many other blue states (CA, NY, OR, MA), and is less likely to nominate a wacko who turns off suburban voters. This race is very much worth watching in a Biden midterm.
You have a point about the down ballot races, but I struggle to see Murphy in any real danger. In 2009, Corzine had absolutely awful approval ratings, was constantly navigating through self inflicted scandals and the economy was in the toilet yet he still kept it close. NJ has only gotten more democrat friendly since 2009 and Murphy has been alot less controversial. He'll win by double digits in a Biden off year I think. Just my opinion though.
