Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH

[wbrocks67]

Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility. I don't think Biden will actually win by 7, but Q-pac actually seems to be picking up on what's happening in GA compared to the polls that still have Trump +1-3.

[wbrocks67]

Big if true. But press X for doubt, especially with regard to Georgia. Quinnipiac seems to be too Democratic-friendly in many of their polls.

Or maybe they are detecting what's happening in states when Biden IS up double digits nationwide? We'll know in 3 weeks but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that many pollsters could not be picking up a lot of support for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Is there something wrong with Quinnipiac's methodology or do its results just feel implausible and outlier-y to people? I'm not up on the exact reasons why different pollsters have the reputations they do these days, other than obvious jokes like Trashlolgar unskewing its own polls or Nate Cohn thinking undecided voters are too stupid to be worth pushing.

I don't get why people are so anti-Q-pac. First of all, their OH poll lines up perfectly with the average. Also, if Biden is really up about 11 nationwide, that is a 9% shift from Clinton. That would be Biden +4 in GA then, so if that's really the case, you would see a Biden +7 poll once in a while.

[wbrocks67]

I wish those Georgia numbers were true, but I sincerely doubt it. Still probably lean Biden at this point.

Can anyone suggest from the crosstabs why the number might be a bit optimistic for Biden? Or is it more likely just an issue of m o e?

I don't think the numbers are really that outlier-ish. Biden is getting 36% of Whites and 89% of Blacks. If anything, he could do a few % better with blacks in the end, and given Biden's strength with White voters, 36% doesn't seem like that *much* of a stretch.

[wbrocks67]

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

OH is not an outlier. SC was not an outlier. PA was not an outlier. They either hit the averages or had other high quality polls backing them up.

[wbrocks67]

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

OH is not an outlier. SC was not an outlier. PA was not an outlier. They either hit the averages or had other high quality polls backing them up.

lmao

They had the SC Senate race tied, which it is, and Trump about 5/6, which we've seen in other polls now??