early look at gerrymanders in 2020

[NOVA Green]

Actually drawing another Democratic district in Oregon is pretty easy. Oregon voted for Hillary by almost 11 points. OR-2 is a huge R vote sink. OR-4 is a very margin seat that Hillary won by like 0.1% (I think it might be the closest seat in the country) but has a strong incumbent and the Democrats could just boost it a bit by adding places like Ashland and Bend from OR-2 and shedding the Republican territory, and you have a seat that would be very hard to win for the Republicans even if DeFazio retires but would be about D+4 or so. That means in the remainder of Oregon Hillary would've won it by about 16-17 points, and thus could easily be chopped up so all the districts are at least in the teens margin of victory.

I'm not actually that convinced it would be easy to create another relatively Democratic district in Oregon given laws and precedents regarding how districts are created.

So let's start with the current population and then let's assume that population growth % by county/ cities within counties remains constant at 7/15-7/16 levels, and then let's annualize that growth rate out to 7/20.

The population of the State would be about 4,350,000 or roughly 725k per US-CD, assuming Oregon gains another House Seat.

The estimated population by County would look something like this:



Generally the rule in Oregon is that whenever possible, one needs to keep cities within one CD, try to observe county boundaries, especially for heavily rural counties, where the County seat is the center of government, and generally try to observe the whole concept "communities of interest". Additionally, you aren't supposed to be deliberately going and creating blatant partisan Gerrymandered districts.

So let's start with CD-02 as the "Republican Vote Sink"....

Basically the district is going to have to lose some real estate, that will have to end up elsewhere....

1.) You aren't going to be able to chop up Central Oregon (Crook/Deschuttes/Jefferson) without fundamentally separating well defined and understood communities of interest.... Trying to run a skinny district all the way out just to gobble up Bend likely wouldn't meet the Oregon criteria, unless you're also taking in large chunks of heavily Republican territory at the same time.

2.) So, this leaves us with 3 Counties and part of a 4th that are currently in CD-02, where we need to look to grab the extra 200k voters for the district. Hood River and Wasco in the far North could potentially be added into a district in Western Oregon, since there are some linkages between the bulk of the population along the Columbia River Gorge in Hood River and The Dalles and East Multnomah and Clackamas Counties.... The former is overwhelmingly Democratic, and the latter is an ancestral Democratic County with recent Republican leanings.  Then you have Jackson County in the South that has both some heavily Republican Areas, as well as some heavily Democratic communities. Either way the remainder of Josephine County (Grants Pass) will end up in CD-04 adding more Republican Votes.

3.) Jackson County will have to be split regardless, and if we need to give some back to CD-04, we may as well run a clean stretch over from Southern Josephine and grab Ashland, Phoenix, and Jacksonville, plus some Republican Rural areas along the Way....

4.) So now we can leave Wasco in CD-02 taking us up to 553k, meaning we need another 170k from Jackson, which conveniently happens to neatly take in the heavily Republican rural areas in the Eastern and Northern parts of the County as well as Medford.

5.) That should give us Hood River County to play with as part of district in the Portland Area, unless we want to keep it in reserve in case someone gets antsy about that being the only place East of the Cascades not in CD-02.

6.) CD-04--- So now we have a big problem, we've added some pretty solidly Dem turf from Ashland area, but we've also added some heavily Republican territory in Grants Pass, and out population is exceeding its limits. Fine--- let's get rid of the rest of Linn County and move that into another district, since part of it already is, and Mid-Valley areas are used to getting shifted around a little bit...

7.) So what to do with the rest of the State? Ok--- if you look at the population of the three core counties of Metro Portland, their combined population should account for about 1.9 Million by 2020 or 45% of the State Vote, not to mention some spare change from Exurbs around Newburg in Yamhill County. It's only fair that Metro Portland gets 3 CDs predominately located within the Metro area, and another CD that is predominately located in the Mid-Valley.

8.) How to "stretch" the Metro Portland vote in a way the dilutes the strong Democratic Votes, while simultaneously respecting precedent?

9.) It makes sense to split Multnomah into two halves--- West of the Willamette and East of the Willamette. This has been done before, and plus you have a County that will have somewhere around 850k people that will need to be split regardless.

10.) CD-03 would retain all of MultCo East of the River, which would give it a base of about 676k Population. To take the other 45k you would probably need to take in the existing Exurban parts of Clackamas already in the district (Happy Valley, Sandy, Estacada), but you're running out of population, and would need to move some heavily Republican rural areas into CD-05, in what is already a marginal district. I guess you might be able to offset by moving some of the Republican leaning exurbs above into CD-05 instead, but either way....

11.) CD-01 would have West Multnomah (170k), Columbia, Clatsop (92k), Tillamook (27k) for a base of 289k, leaving us with another 436k population.... Well this is pretty much all going to come out of Washington County, so we may as well take all of the rural areas, places like Forest Grove and such, throw in fast-growing Hillsboro (110k), a bunch of unincorporated areas West of Portland, etc

12.) CD-06--- Thinking Tigard and Beaverton would be the base (160k) along with another 42k in the SW portion of the County for 202k in Washington.... Add in Yamhill, Polk, Benton, and Lincoln and you have another 342k for 544k to date.... we still need another 200k Pop. I guess you could throw Linn County into the Mix and some rural parts of Marion.

13.) CD-05--- Would keep existing Democratic suburbs of Milwaukee, Lake Oswego, Gladstone, West Linn, and Uninc Areas around there, throw in Salem-Keizer, Woodborn, and all of the rural areas in Marion along the I-5 corridor, and you're still maintaining much of the district.

Here's a crude map of what that would look like--- haven't run the '16 GE Pres precinct numbers against this, but it looks like you would end up with a potential 5-1 Dem Congressional Delegation, albeit with 2 reachable Republican flip seats (CD-05 and CD-06), assuming that letting go of Linn combined with Ashland overpowering Grants Pass strengthens CD-04.

[NOVA Green]

Actually drawing another Democratic district in Oregon is pretty easy. Oregon voted for Hillary by almost 11 points. OR-2 is a huge R vote sink. OR-4 is a very margin seat that Hillary won by like 0.1% (I think it might be the closest seat in the country) but has a strong incumbent and the Democrats could just boost it a bit by adding places like Ashland and Bend from OR-2 and shedding the Republican territory, and you have a seat that would be very hard to win for the Republicans even if DeFazio retires but would be about D+4 or so. That means in the remainder of Oregon Hillary would've won it by about 16-17 points, and thus could easily be chopped up so all the districts are at least in the teens margin of victory.

I'm not actually that convinced it would be easy to create another relatively Democratic district in Oregon given laws and precedents regarding how districts are created.

So let's start with the current population and then let's assume that population growth % by county/ cities within counties remains constant at 7/15-7/16 levels, and then let's annualize that growth rate out to 7/20.

The population of the State would be about 4,350,000 or roughly 725k per US-CD, assuming Oregon gains another House Seat.

The estimated population by County would look something like this:



Generally the rule in Oregon is that whenever possible, one needs to keep cities within one CD, try to observe county boundaries, especially for heavily rural counties, where the County seat is the center of government, and generally try to observe the whole concept "communities of interest". Additionally, you aren't supposed to be deliberately going and creating blatant partisan Gerrymandered districts.

So let's start with CD-02 as the "Republican Vote Sink"....

Basically the district is going to have to lose some real estate, that will have to end up elsewhere....

1.) You aren't going to be able to chop up Central Oregon (Crook/Deschuttes/Jefferson) without fundamentally separating well defined and understood communities of interest.... Trying to run a skinny district all the way out just to gobble up Bend likely wouldn't meet the Oregon criteria, unless you're also taking in large chunks of heavily Republican territory at the same time.

2.) So, this leaves us with 3 Counties and part of a 4th that are currently in CD-02, where we need to look to grab the extra 200k voters for the district. Hood River and Wasco in the far North could potentially be added into a district in Western Oregon, since there are some linkages between the bulk of the population along the Columbia River Gorge in Hood River and The Dalles and East Multnomah and Clackamas Counties.... The former is overwhelmingly Democratic, and the latter is an ancestral Democratic County with recent Republican leanings.  Then you have Jackson County in the South that has both some heavily Republican Areas, as well as some heavily Democratic communities. Either way the remainder of Josephine County (Grants Pass) will end up in CD-04 adding more Republican Votes.

3.) Jackson County will have to be split regardless, and if we need to give some back to CD-04, we may as well run a clean stretch over from Southern Josephine and grab Ashland, Phoenix, and Jacksonville, plus some Republican Rural areas along the Way....

4.) So now we can leave Wasco in CD-02 taking us up to 553k, meaning we need another 170k from Jackson, which conveniently happens to neatly take in the heavily Republican rural areas in the Eastern and Northern parts of the County as well as Medford.

5.) That should give us Hood River County to play with as part of district in the Portland Area, unless we want to keep it in reserve in case someone gets antsy about that being the only place East of the Cascades not in CD-02.

6.) CD-04--- So now we have a big problem, we've added some pretty solidly Dem turf from Ashland area, but we've also added some heavily Republican territory in Grants Pass, and out population is exceeding its limits. Fine--- let's get rid of the rest of Linn County and move that into another district, since part of it already is, and Mid-Valley areas are used to getting shifted around a little bit...

7.) So what to do with the rest of the State? Ok--- if you look at the population of the three core counties of Metro Portland, their combined population should account for about 1.9 Million by 2020 or 45% of the State Vote, not to mention some spare change from Exurbs around Newburg in Yamhill County. It's only fair that Metro Portland gets 3 CDs predominately located within the Metro area, and another CD that is predominately located in the Mid-Valley.

8.) How to "stretch" the Metro Portland vote in a way the dilutes the strong Democratic Votes, while simultaneously respecting precedent?

9.) It makes sense to split Multnomah into two halves--- West of the Willamette and East of the Willamette. This has been done before, and plus you have a County that will have somewhere around 850k people that will need to be split regardless.

10.) CD-03 would retain all of MultCo East of the River, which would give it a base of about 676k Population. To take the other 45k you would probably need to take in the existing Exurban parts of Clackamas already in the district (Happy Valley, Sandy, Estacada), but you're running out of population, and would need to move some heavily Republican rural areas into CD-05, in what is already a marginal district. I guess you might be able to offset by moving some of the Republican leaning exurbs above into CD-05 instead, but either way....

11.) CD-01 would have West Multnomah (170k), Columbia, Clatsop (92k), Tillamook (27k) for a base of 289k, leaving us with another 436k population.... Well this is pretty much all going to come out of Washington County, so we may as well take all of the rural areas, places like Forest Grove and such, throw in fast-growing Hillsboro (110k), a bunch of unincorporated areas West of Portland, etc

12.) CD-06--- Thinking Tigard and Beaverton would be the base (160k) along with another 42k in the SW portion of the County for 202k in Washington.... Add in Yamhill, Polk, Benton, and Lincoln and you have another 342k for 544k to date.... we still need another 200k Pop. I guess you could throw Linn County into the Mix and some rural parts of Marion.

13.) CD-05--- Would keep existing Democratic suburbs of Milwaukee, Lake Oswego, Gladstone, West Linn, and Uninc Areas around there, throw in Salem-Keizer, Woodborn, and all of the rural areas in Marion along the I-5 corridor, and you're still maintaining much of the district.

Here's a crude map of what that would look like--- haven't run the '16 GE Pres precinct numbers against this, but it looks like you would end up with a potential 5-1 Dem Congressional Delegation, albeit with 2 reachable Republican flip seats (CD-05 and CD-06), assuming that letting go of Linn combined with Ashland overpowering Grants Pass strengthens CD-04.

@ BRTD / Compassion Fills the Void

Sir, you have yet to explain your argument as to why the Democrats should be able to craft a safe Democratic seat in OR CD-06.

NcLib posited that the new OR-CD would be at best for a Dems a Swing CD.

You have suggested that dumping a ton of Republican Votes into Eastern Oregon (CD-02) and shoring up CD-04 will create four solid districts where the Democrats should win the Teens.

SingleTexGuyforFun said he thought that the 'Pubs would gain the new CD no matter what.

Gass indicated that would probably be the case.

I have proposed what I think might be the best general template for the Democrats, that should withstand a legal challenge, which would be something like (2) Safe Dem Districts, (2) Lean Dem Districts, (1) Tossup, and (1) Republican District.

We are eagerly awaiting your response, unless this is yet another BRTD "Seagull" dive bomb attempt utilizing the latest Stuka technology, (or should we call them Junkers)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_87





 

[NOVA Green]

Here's a version of OR I drew from neutral principles. It's an anti-gerrymander, but I'm curious to get an opinion from NOVA Green.



I projected the counties to 2020 from the 2016 estimates. As drawn here are the percent population deviations for the Beaverton and Salem CDs are less than 0.5% and wouldn't need any adjustment. The other CDs are all within 2.3% of the quota, and need minimal shifts to bring them to practicably equal. For example shifting all of the Warm Springs IR into the Gresham-Pendleton CD and the area north of Sexton Mtn Pass into the Eugene CD would be enough to probably meet standards for population equality.

Muon--- that's a very clean map (Regardless of whatever Partisan leans might be for various CDs).

Congrats Sir!!!!

I went through the same exercise that you did regarding projected county Pop growth numbers using the 2016 % as a baseline, and then additionally plugged the data into a spreadsheet to estimate population growth by municipality....

So looking at the Map you have my 7/20 population estimates are:

CD-01---   730 k--- Washington/Clatsop/Columbia
CD-02----  740k     Much of Eastern Oregon plus Jackson/Josephine
CD-03----  ? Can't really tell from the map by let's say all of MultCo excepting Gresham/Troutdale, etc (~130-140k)....
CD-04---  708k--- Lane/Linn/Douglas/Coos/Curry
CD-05---  590k + East Multco (Gresham/Troutdale etc...130-140k?)
CD-06---  720k --- Let's call this the "new" CD--- Marion/Benton/Yamhill/Polk/Lincoln/Tillamook

Overall numbers look pretty good from the population requirement standard, except CD-04 is a bit light based upon my projected population growth numbers. Typically in Oregon the redistricting tends to go slightly lower in actual Pop in "higher growth areas" and slightly over in "lower growth areas"....

So here are the legal requirements for anyone not familiar with Oregon Law:


Like all states, Oregon must comply with constitutional equal population requirements. By statute, Oregon further asks that its state legislative districts be of equal population, "as nearly as practicable." [Or. Rev. Stat. § 188.010]

Oregon must also, like all states, abide by section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

Oregon statutes establish additional criteria for both state legislative and congressional districts; the legislature may modify these statutes at any time. Currently, Oregon law asks that, as nearly as practicable, districts be contiguous, utilize existing geographic or political boundaries, not divide communities of common interest, and be connected by transportation links. The law also declares that districts will not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent, or other person.[Or. Rev. Stat. § 188.010]

The Secretary of State has promulgated rules clarifying that, at least when the Secretary of State must draw district lines, she will comply with statutory criteria "to the maximum extent practicable"; these rules further focus "geographic or political boundaries" on county and city lines, focus "transportation links" on the presence of county roads in populated areas, and note that media markets will be considered in "determining communities of common interest." [Or. Admin. R. § 165-008-0060]

Oregon districts are "nested," with every state Senate district containing two state House districts. [Or. Rev. Stat. § 188.010]

http://redistricting.lls.edu/states-OR.php

Traditionally "Eastern Oregon" (Including Central Oregon) is seen as having more of the "communities of common interest" than many other parts of the State, so the one item that might be problematic there would be stretching it all the way over from Gresham to Pendleton.

I'm not saying it wouldn't fly, but many State Senators and Reps might be asking, not to mention residents of the Counties along the Columbia River "Grain Belt" why they are getting lumped into a Portland Suburban Congressional District.

Then you also have the minor problem of moving incumbent CD-02 Republican Rep Greg Walden out of his home City/County (Hood River).

Southern Oregon counties of Josephine/Jackson are a bit more used to being lumped into CD-02, so there probably wouldn't be as much pushback there, but many might ask why a more natural "communities of interest" doesn't bring Southern Oregon Counties into CD-04, rather than stretching suburban Portland way out (Although certainly there is a common transportation connection).

The residents of Southern Oregon counties of Josephine/Jackson do have much more of a natural connection with places like Roseburg, Coos Bay, and Eugene-Springfield than Central/Eastern Oregon.

I do like the concept of a "Central Willamette Valley" (CD-06), combined with some neighboring Coastal Communities, since you'll have a clearly defined "community of interest, although it would make more sense to at least throw Albany into CD-06, considering that Corvallis-Albany are essentially sister cities in terms of regional economy/jobs/etc  ....

Politically your proposed map:

CD-01--- Solid Dem
CD-02--- Solid Rep--- (Although moving out Umatilla combined with High Pop growth in Deschutes and Jackson will make the area more competitive in the 2020s.
CD-03- Heavy Dem
CD-04- Lean Dem--- (Even Post DeFazio taking out Grant's Pass helps a ton). Could well be Tossup with a Moderate Republican (Unlikely to win the 'Pub primaries in this CD however).
CD-05-- Tossup/ Slight Rep Tilt--- East MultCo is the least Democratic part of the County, throw in all of Clackamas County, and heavily Republican Umatilla County, you might well have a Rep CD.
CD-06- Tossup/Slight Dem Tilt---- Benton/Lincoln are solid D, as is Salem, but a Moderate 'Pub could easily win if they play well.

Now what would this look like for Oregon State House & Senate Districts?

Thoughts???

[NOVA Green]

Here's a version of OR I drew from neutral principles. It's an anti-gerrymander, but I'm curious to get an opinion from NOVA Green.



I projected the counties to 2020 from the 2016 estimates. As drawn here are the percent population deviations for the Beaverton and Salem CDs are less than 0.5% and wouldn't need any adjustment. The other CDs are all within 2.3% of the quota, and need minimal shifts to bring them to practicably equal. For example shifting all of the Warm Springs IR into the Gresham-Pendleton CD and the area north of Sexton Mtn Pass into the Eugene CD would be enough to probably meet standards for population equality.

It meets reasonable standards already. They are as equal as practicable using counties.

It is bozo logic that representatives elected from such districts would not be "chosen (...) by the people of [Oregon]"

As soon as SCOTUS determines that "as equal as practicable" is the same as "substantially equal" then I'll entertain the notion that a 10% range on CDs is acceptable. Until then I will assume that SCOTUS intends that the phrases be different and that "as equal as practicable" requires a stricter numerical standard than 10%. I use 1% for CDs since a range close to that has recently been upheld.

Like all states, Oregon must comply with constitutional equal population requirements. By statute, Oregon further asks that its state legislative districts be of equal population, "as nearly as practicable." [Or. Rev. Stat. § 188.010]

Oregon must also, like all states, abide by section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

Oregon statutes establish additional criteria for both state legislative and congressional districts; the legislature may modify these statutes at any time. Currently, Oregon law asks that, as nearly as practicable, districts be contiguous, utilize existing geographic or political boundaries, not divide communities of common interest, and be connected by transportation links. The law also declares that districts will not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent, or other person.[Or. Rev. Stat. § 188.010]

The Secretary of State has promulgated rules clarifying that, at least when the Secretary of State must draw district lines, she will comply with statutory criteria "to the maximum extent practicable"; these rules further focus "geographic or political boundaries" on county and city lines, focus "transportation links" on the presence of county roads in populated areas, and note that media markets will be considered in "determining communities of common interest." [Or. Admin. R. § 165-008-0060]

Oregon districts are "nested," with every state Senate district containing two state House districts. [Or. Rev. Stat. § 188.010]


http://redistricting.lls.edu/states-OR.php

[NOVA Green]

It's funny how it's only Dem or swing states that are enacting indy/bipartisan commissions for redistricting.   You really don't see any movement at all on this for Republican states.

Yeah--- I've noticed the accidental coincidence that's been going on there for almost two decades now.

I'm sure it's just a statistical anomaly driven by small sample size and not anything deliberate going on, but still this phenomenon seems a bit odd in terms of how it is distributed among the 50 states of the Union....

[NOVA Green]

So here's the 5-1 Oregon map I drew on AAD. It's not perfect of course since it uses the last Census numbers but it's a good rough outline:

Trump probably didn't break 40% in any of the districts in the Portland area.

Looks good, but probably wouldn't work with Oregon state law.

That was my exact reaction reviewing the map.

Also, looking at the district that includes Linn & Benton Counties, it is difficult to see how that wouldn't be a slight Lean R CD.

Also the yellow CD that stretches down from some SE PDX precincts, suburbs of Clackamas County (Oregon City for example)  through Marion County and grabs Albany, looks more like a 50-50 district than a Lean Dem district.

I believe as well that BRTD's map is overly fixated on protecting the current OR CD-04 , rather than focusing more on OR CD-05, which I believe is a more vulnerable Democratic CD, considering the overwhelmingly Dem numbers that come out of Lane County.

I posit, that if we were to attempt to Gerrymander legislative districts in Oregon to favor the Democrats, one would need to find a way to split the major Dem vote from Multnomah and Washington Counties throughout multiple congressional districts as a more effective means.

I don't believe that BRTD's map would create a 5-1 Democratic Congressional delegation lead from Oregon...

You have tons of wasted Democratic votes in Multnomah County.... if we're going to split up counties, heavily Democratic Cities like Beaverton in Washington County should move South into a new CD to erase 'Pub margins from some small-town and rural areas from relatively cultural conservative voters in Yamhill, Polk, and Marion Counties...

Still, pretty good map on BRTD's part, although it would not pass judicial review, and would be more likely to lead to a 4-2 (Dem/Rep) Congressional delegation, at least in the short term, until Demographics start to become destiny in the Mid-Valley.