MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1

[Xing]

Peters was never safe, and while I still think he wins, he's gotta take this seriously for the next few weeks. Also, this should not only put to rest the idea that Michigan is back to being a dark blue state, but also the idea that incumbents (Republican or Democratic) can't underperform the top of the ticket. Peters and Tillis could both very well do so, and it would be interesting to see how Democrats on this forum would react to Peters losing while Biden wins Michigan, as well as Republican reacting to Tillis losing while Trump wins North Carolina.

[Xing]

Peters was never safe, and while I still think he wins, he's gotta take this seriously for the next few weeks. Also, this should not only put to rest the idea that Michigan is back to being a dark blue state, but also the idea that incumbents (Republican or Democratic) can't underperform the top of the ticket. Peters and Tillis could both very well do so, and it would be interesting to see how Democrats on this forum would react to Peters losing while Biden wins Michigan, as well as Republican reacting to Tillis losing while Trump wins North Carolina.

Would it though?  I imagine folks would mainly be pissed about their side losing a Senate seat and then get on with life  

Sure, they'd eventually get on with their lives, but the immediate reaction/analysis would be interesting.

[Xing]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

[citation needed]

Either way, I don't doubt that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters, though I don't think they'll make up a significant portion of the electorate, and in most competitive races won't significantly outnumber Trump/Democrat downballot voters (and in some races, there could be more of these voters.)