Outside NC redistricting, do any seats flip D-->R?

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

[Roll Roons]

Yes.

Four categories to watch:
Trump seats (AK-AL, ME-02, OH-09, PA-08, WA-03)
Competitive open seats (CA-47, MD-06, MI-07, MI-08, VA-07)
Seats that were close in 2022 (CO-08, CT-05, NM-02, NY-18, PA-07)
Working-class seats (IN-01, OH-13, all three seats in NV)

Democrats are individually favored in almost all of these districts, but of these 20, I think at least one will end up flipping. My hot take is that CA-47 is the most vulnerable.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

CA-47, MI-07/8, MD-06, VA-07

These are 5 seats that would be close to likely D if the Dem incumbents ran, but are now tossup due to being open seats. CA-47 is well Orange County, and Republicans have managed to recover significantly since 2018. The Michigan two are obvious. MD-06 will go comfortably for Biden, but Hogan will likely carry it by double digits. Whether the house race tracks closer to the Presidential or Senate will be key. VA-07 will vote Biden again, but it's unclear whether Trump does worse in VA this time around. Additionally, the GOP is likely going to nominate a better candidate than Vega.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think WA-03 flips back

[Talleyrand]

Quite a few. Kaptur and MGP go down for sure.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Quite a few. Kaptur and MGP go down for sure.

I think MGP is in an extremely competitive race and probably the most vulnerable Democrat (incumbent or open seat outside NC).  However, right now, I think she narrowly hangs on due to her opponent being an exceptionally weak retread.  She’s probably gone once Republicans nominate someone besides Joe Kent though. 

I strongly disagree on Kaptur.  The Republicans have a decidedly meh candidate who is best known for blowing his state house Speaker bid in truly spectacular fashion when it should have been a cakewalk for him.  The Republican nominee wasn’t even supposed to be a candidate, but jumped in at the last minute due a leaked recording of the GOP’s preferred recruit criticizing Trump). 

Kaptur’s 2022 margin was inflated due to Majewski’s scandal, but in hindsight, she would’ve won even without it.  She ran a strong campaign and is extremely popular in Toledo and guaranteed to significantly over-preform Biden (and probably Brown) throughout the district (which Brown will quite likely carry, although Biden probably won’t).

I think folks are underestimating her and that this race is currently Lean D (albeit right on the border between Lean and Tilt).  Ohio’s House seats won’t be nearly as competitive as in 2022.  Landsman is Safe D and Sykes is Tilt D (but much closer to Lean D than Tilt R). 

[Mr.Phips]

CA-47, MI-07/8, MD-06, VA-07

These are 5 seats that would be close to likely D if the Dem incumbents ran, but are now tossup due to being open seats. CA-47 is well Orange County, and Republicans have managed to recover significantly since 2018. The Michigan two are obvious. MD-06 will go comfortably for Biden, but Hogan will likely carry it by double digits. Whether the house race tracks closer to the Presidential or Senate will be key. VA-07 will vote Biden again, but it's unclear whether Trump does worse in VA this time around. Additionally, the GOP is likely going to nominate a better candidate than Vega.

I can see one of the Michigan seats flipping, but doubt the other ones (especially MD-06 and VA-07) do in a presidential year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes.

Four categories to watch:
Trump seats (AK-AL, ME-02, OH-09, PA-08, WA-03)
Competitive open seats (CA-47, MD-06, MI-07, MI-08, VA-07)
Seats that were close in 2022 (CO-08, CT-05, NM-02, NY-18, PA-07)
Working-class seats (IN-01, OH-13, all three seats in NV)

Democrats are individually favored in almost all of these districts, but of these 20, I think at least one will end up flipping. My hot take is that CA-47 is the most vulnerable.

This is fair; just by pure numbers Democrats should lose *something*.

However, everything in the first category are Democrats with history of big overperformances and almost everything else is a Biden seat, often seat Biden carried by quite a bit and will likely carry again in 2024. In my opinion, seats like VA-07 and MD-06 are not tossups; Biden already carried both seats by ~10% in 2020 and generally these seats have been getting bluer. There's also no reason to expect some sort of localized red wave in the DC metro region.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Quite a few. Kaptur and MGP go down for sure.

I think Kaptur should be fine honestly. MGP is in a tossup race but she can certainly win.

Yes.

Four categories to watch:
Trump seats (AK-AL, ME-02, OH-09, PA-08, WA-03)
Competitive open seats (CA-47, MD-06, MI-07, MI-08, VA-07)
Seats that were close in 2022 (CO-08, CT-05, NM-02, NY-18, PA-07)
Working-class seats (IN-01, OH-13, all three seats in NV)

Democrats are individually favored in almost all of these districts, but of these 20, I think at least one will end up flipping. My hot take is that CA-47 is the most vulnerable.

This is fair; just by pure numbers Democrats should lose *something*.

However, everything in the first category are Democrats with history of big overperformances and almost everything else is a Biden seat, often seat Biden carried by quite a bit and will likely carry again in 2024. In my opinion, seats like VA-07 and MD-06 are not tossups; Biden already carried both seats by ~10% in 2020 and generally these seats have been getting bluer. There's also no reason to expect some sort of localized red wave in the DC metro region.

There is a sizeable chunk of suburban voters who hate Trump but are totally fine voting for a generic boring Republican downballot.

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-47, MI-07/8, MD-06, VA-07

These are 5 seats that would be close to likely D if the Dem incumbents ran, but are now tossup due to being open seats. CA-47 is well Orange County, and Republicans have managed to recover significantly since 2018. The Michigan two are obvious. MD-06 will go comfortably for Biden, but Hogan will likely carry it by double digits. Whether the house race tracks closer to the Presidential or Senate will be key. VA-07 will vote Biden again, but it's unclear whether Trump does worse in VA this time around. Additionally, the GOP is likely going to nominate a better candidate than Vega.

I can see one of the Michigan seats flipping, but doubt the other ones (especially MD-06 and VA-07) do in a presidential year.

I could see Trump flipping one or both of the open MI seats but I think downballot Dems will hold them both.

[SilverStar]

Quite a few. Kaptur and MGP go down for sure.

I think Kaptur should be fine honestly. MGP is in a tossup race but she can certainly win.

Yes.

Four categories to watch:
Trump seats (AK-AL, ME-02, OH-09, PA-08, WA-03)
Competitive open seats (CA-47, MD-06, MI-07, MI-08, VA-07)
Seats that were close in 2022 (CO-08, CT-05, NM-02, NY-18, PA-07)
Working-class seats (IN-01, OH-13, all three seats in NV)

Democrats are individually favored in almost all of these districts, but of these 20, I think at least one will end up flipping. My hot take is that CA-47 is the most vulnerable.

This is fair; just by pure numbers Democrats should lose *something*.

However, everything in the first category are Democrats with history of big overperformances and almost everything else is a Biden seat, often seat Biden carried by quite a bit and will likely carry again in 2024. In my opinion, seats like VA-07 and MD-06 are not tossups; Biden already carried both seats by ~10% in 2020 and generally these seats have been getting bluer. There's also no reason to expect some sort of localized red wave in the DC metro region.

There is a sizeable chunk of suburban voters who hate Trump but are totally fine voting for a generic boring Republican downballot.

VA07 and MD06 voted against Romney

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pure probability says Yes, individualized race analysis says probably No.
Voted No. But I wouldn't be shocked if I was wrong.

[wnwnwn]

Hopefully dems invest in the two Ohio swing seats.

[progressive85]

I think 2006 is the only election cycle in this century where only one party flipped seats in the House (the Democrats).  It's very rare.  Even in 2010, Democrats flipped at least one (although it was one that was very blue anyway).

edit:

2008: Republicans flipped FL 16 (Tom Rooney), KS 2 (Lynn Jenkins), LA 2 (Joseph Cao), LA 6 (Bill Cassidy), TX 22 (Pete Olson).

2010: Democrats flipped DE (John Carney), HI 1 (Colleen Hanabusa), LA 2 (Cedric Richmond)

2014: Democrats flipped CA 31 (Pete Aguilar), FL 2 (Gwen Graham), NE 2 (Brad Ashford)

2018: Republicans flipped MN 1 (Jim Hagedorn), and MN 8 (Pete Stauber)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think 2006 is the only election cycle in this century where only one party flipped seats in the House (the Democrats).  It's very rare.  Even in 2010, Democrats flipped at least one (although it was one that was very blue anyway).

edit:

2008: Republicans flipped FL 16 (Tom Rooney), KS 2 (Lynn Jenkins), LA 2 (Joseph Cao), LA 6 (Bill Cassidy), TX 22 (Pete Olson).

2010: Democrats flipped DE (John Carney), HI 1 (Colleen Hanabusa), LA 2 (Cedric Richmond)

2014: Democrats flipped CA 31 (Pete Aguilar), FL 2 (Gwen Graham), NE 2 (Brad Ashford)

2018: Republicans flipped MN 1 (Jim Hagedorn), and MN 8 (Pete Stauber)

Most of these were due to re-alignment catching up (DE-AL, LA-06, HI-01, CA-31, MN-08, TX-22) or flipping back flukish wins from the previous cycle (LA-02).

In this case, re-alignment has pretty much caught up on a national scale where we don't have Dems holding Trump + 20 seats or vise-versa, and there were no crazy LA-02 level flukes in 2022 - yes seats like WA-03 was an upset but that's still only a Trump + 4 seat where MGP doesn't need that much crossover support to win again.

[David Hume]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip, and 10 seats where R has at least 10% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

[adma]

I think 2006 is the only election cycle in this century where only one party flipped seats in the House (the Democrats).  It's very rare.  Even in 2010, Democrats flipped at least one (although it was one that was very blue anyway).

edit:

2008: Republicans flipped FL 16 (Tom Rooney), KS 2 (Lynn Jenkins), LA 2 (Joseph Cao), LA 6 (Bill Cassidy), TX 22 (Pete Olson).

2010: Democrats flipped DE (John Carney), HI 1 (Colleen Hanabusa), LA 2 (Cedric Richmond)

2014: Democrats flipped CA 31 (Pete Aguilar), FL 2 (Gwen Graham), NE 2 (Brad Ashford)

2018: Republicans flipped MN 1 (Jim Hagedorn), and MN 8 (Pete Stauber)

Most of these were due to re-alignment catching up (DE-AL, LA-06, HI-01, CA-31, MN-08, TX-22) or flipping back flukish wins from the previous cycle (LA-02).

In this case, re-alignment has pretty much caught up on a national scale where we don't have Dems holding Trump + 20 seats or vise-versa, and there were no crazy LA-02 level flukes in 2022 - yes seats like WA-03 was an upset but that's still only a Trump + 4 seat where MGP doesn't need that much crossover support to win again.

And some of those (LA-02, HI-01) were flukes because they were special election victories that would've been unlikely in the general.

[David Hume]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

I already considered this by using probabilities like 20% and 10%. Otherwise seats like CA47 and MI07 have about 40% chance to flip.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

I already considered this by using probabilities like 20% and 10%. Otherwise seats like CA47 and MI07 have about 40% chance to flip.

That's still not how probability works; even if you raise the base percentage, you're still treating them as independent events.

One way to think about it is if you give Biden a healthy 60% chance of winning each of the main swing states individually (AZ, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI), by your logic the chance he wins all 6 again is only 5% which is way too low. Likewise for Trump.

[David Hume]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

I already considered this by using probabilities like 20% and 10%. Otherwise seats like CA47 and MI07 have about 40% chance to flip.

That's still not how probability works; even if you raise the base percentage, you're still treating them as independent events.

One way to think about it is if you give Biden a healthy 60% chance of winning each of the main swing states individually (AZ, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI), by your logic the chance he wins all 6 again is only 5% which is way too low. Likewise for Trump.

I know they are not completely independent. This is just a very rough estimation, since there is no way to know the conditional probabilities like P(AZ|PA) . Using the Biden example, his chance of winning each of them is about 50, since they are not independent, let's raise them to 80%, and the result is 26.2%. Not very high but still notable.

[2016]

If Biden doesn't get his JA up soon Democrats will lose a lot of Toss Up Seats even those they are supposed to win.

[UncleSam]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

I already considered this by using probabilities like 20% and 10%. Otherwise seats like CA47 and MI07 have about 40% chance to flip.

That's still not how probability works; even if you raise the base percentage, you're still treating them as independent events.

One way to think about it is if you give Biden a healthy 60% chance of winning each of the main swing states individually (AZ, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI), by your logic the chance he wins all 6 again is only 5% which is way too low. Likewise for Trump.

I know they are not completely independent. This is just a very rough estimation, since there is no way to know the conditional probabilities like P(AZ|PA) . Using the Biden example, his chance of winning each of them is about 50, since they are not independent, let's raise them to 80%, and the result is 26.2%. Not very high but still notable.

I think at that point you might as well just estimate the aggregate probability, rather than using an inaccurate formula with known inaccurate assumptions in attempt to get them to cancel out.

I will say that while not independent, house races tend to be much more localized than president. It is very unlikely that one party will sweep all of the competitive races, and if one does then by November the races we will be viewing as competitive will have shifted drastically.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think Cartwright goes down this year. 2022 wasn't a good sign for him, and his district voted to the right of Perry's district in the governor's race.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

There’s only been 1 election (2006) since 1990 where only one party flipped seats, and it’s usually more then just redistricting so Im guessing someone goes down but no idea who as others said. Probably some likely d or lean d seat has some fluke or late scandal that sinks someone