Who is likely to be the next Pope?

[Isaak]

This question is almost always being asked within the Church, even though it's seen as kind of a tacky one, and the plausible answers are always in some amount of flux, but names that have been in the mix in the past few years include Luis Antonio Tagle (Filipino, similar to Francis but "nicer"/not as much of a grumpy old man, former Archbishop of Manila now heading one of the two sections of the Dicastery for Evangelization in Rome; hasn't had as high a profile in that role as many had expected, though), Matteo Zuppi (Italian, Archbishop of Bologna, head of the Italian episcopal conference, occasionally sent on papal diplomatic missions), Peter Turkson (Ghanaian, Archbishop of Cape Coast and then head of a succession of sociopolitical dicasteries and think tanks in Rome, widely respected on a few different levels but apparently a pretty toxic boss/administrator), Malcolm Ranjith (Sri Lankan, Archbishop of Colombo, has "peripheries" cred but conservative enough not to spook the people who already hate Francis), Robert Sarah (Guinean, Archbishop of Conakry and then head of a succession of sociopolitical dicasteries, then, finally, head of the former Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments; his credibility at this point is basically trad wishcasting but up until the past couple of years he was a genuine strong possibility), and Victor Manuel Fernandez (Argentinian, Archbishop of La Plata, not yet a cardinal but will almost certainly become one imminently because he's just been appointed DDF Prefect, very close to Francis and has in fact ghostwritten some of his major teaching documents). Fernandez is the youngest of these people at sixty, Sarah the oldest at seventy-eight.

The one name I think is really missing from this post (to not swell the list with people like Ouellet, Parolin, O’Malley, etc) is Peter Erdo of Hungary, another conservative favorite and probably the conservative frontrunner at this point.

Your mention of O'Malley is interesting, mainly because I genuinely find it hard to believe that the cardinals would ever elect an American pope.

I agree, which is why I don’t think he’s going to ever be pope (Parolin and Ouellet are too associated with financial and sexual scandal, respectively). But if he weren’t American I think he’d be a frontrunner.

O'Malley's relatively high degree of credibility on safeguarding (although saying this about a Catholic prelate these days is a bit like saying about a hyena that it has a relatively high degree of credibility on food safety) is huge and would easily put him in the "open secret that he's being strongly considered by his peers" weight class with Tagle and Zuppi if he were from any other country.

I hadn't known until now about the opposition to an American pope. Is it simply due to the legacy of the church's dislike for the "heresy of Americanism" 120 years ago or is it something else?

More so I’d say a (not unjustified) reticence to give the chair of St Peter to someone from the most powerful country in the world. A bit ironic given the origin of the Pope’s being Bishop of Rome, but there you go.

Yeah, it's a reluctance to give Americans and American ideas yet another power center in world affairs, especially given that the American Church is increasingly out of step with the world mainstream.

The Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, the new Cardinal Robert Prevost, is an American, and yet he has spent most of his life outside the US, in leadership of his religious order, the Augustinians, and in Peru. If he does well in his new role, he could certainly be a contender for the Next Pope.

He has a Doctoral Degree in Canon Law. Seems to be fluent in both Spanish and Italian.

Too inexperienced – and I agree that hardly anyone wants to see an American on the Chair of Peter.

My favorites are still Parolin, Zuppi, and Tagle (+Erdö if the cardinals want to elect a conservative). Fernandez, on the other hand, is entirely Francis's creature and probably has as few chances as Canizares Llovera had in 2013.

Ambongo is interesting but too young. Perhaps some time in the 2030s.