Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Colorado ballot count for 11/20:

Total votes cast: 79,355

Republicans: 36,830 (46%)

Democrats: 24,648 (31%)

Unaffiliated: 17,191 (21%)

Here are the numbers for two crucial suburban Denver swing counties, both of which generally mirror statewide turnout (as you can see):

Jefferson County

Republicans: 5961 (43%)

Democrats: 4352 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 3394 (25%)


Arapahoe County

Republicans: 4877 (45%)

Democrats: 3521 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 2378 (22%)

Enjoy.

What are the numbers for El Paso, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, and Pueblo counties?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How does El Paso County turn out more Democrats than all of Denver combined?

Because hardly anything has come in from Denver  These numbers mean very little right now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A non-competitive race for Ohio Governor this year as opposed to 2010 as well as the U.S. Supreme Court siding with the Ohio GOP on cutting a week of our early voting led to a decrease in the # of absentee ballots requested from 2010. Early voting applications were sent to 6 million voters in Ohio with about 750,000 Ohioans requesting or casting an absentee ballot.

The absentee ballots were sent out with federal money, but once Ohio runs out of the money, then it will be the job of the state legislature to appropriate new state funding for sending them out and Secretary of Suppression State Jon Husted will only send them if he chooses to. Obviously, when that time comes, that won't run smoothly.

Early voting requests is also taking a big toll out of Cuyahoga County, the most populous and one of the most Democratic counties in the state. Despite the fact that the leading Democrat, Ed FitzGerald is from here, there's 60,000 less absentee ballots requested this year than in 2010; with only 130,000 requested from our county this year. There's just a huge lack of Democratic enthusiasm that will result in low turnout among many women and minorities.

For the whole state of Ohio, early voting requests are relatively the same as 2010, but there's a -2 shift for absentee requests by Democratic voters and a +1 shift by Republican voters:

2014: Democrats - 55%, Republicans - 25%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 19%
2010: Democrats - 57%, Republicans - 24%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 20%

The numbers in key counties like Franklin paint a far bleaker picture

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

More than 300.000 votes in CO in so far.

R: 44%
D: 32%

R+12

Roughly 1/7th of the vote is now in.

In 2010, when Bennet won by 2, the final early vote was R+6. But that was with 1.2 Mio. early votes.

Link?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

Maybe even Udall...maybe

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

I assume this one.