Clemson Palmetto Poll-SC: Biden 35, Steyer 17, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 8, Warren 8

[2016]

There is no way that Steyer finishes ahead of Sanders and Bernie gets locked out of SC Delegates.

[2016]

Field Dates: Feb 17th to Feb 25.

[2016]

This is probably the worst case scenario for Sanders in terms of Biden's margin but he will not fail to be viable and I don't think there's any chance that Steyer finishes ahead of him.

Biden should win a state like this by at least 25% in a competitive race with Sanders.

They conducted the Poll February 17 to February 25. Enough said! These Polls over an 8-Day Period are having huge Problems. That's why I don't put too much stuck in Q-Pac Polls as well.

By comparison: The Palmetto Poll in 2016 which showed Clinton winning 64-14 was done Feb 20-25.

[2016]

I think a double digit Biden lead looks more likely than a 2-5 point lead.

I think it will be something in between. If it's below 5 Points I would be shocked, if it's above 15 Points and Sanders not viable at 13 % I would also be shocked.

I'd say: Biden low end 7-8 Points (like the Eastern U. Poll is predicting), high end 12-13 Points.

[2016]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

SC 2016 EXIT POLL per CNN
17-24: 7 %
25-29: 8 %
30-39: 13 %
40-49: 16 %
50-64: 38 %
65+: 19 %
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/SC/Dem

If you combine 50-64 and 65+ you got 57 % of the Electorate being 50 years and older so it's not unreasonable.

Clemson has clearly been operating the their Model based on the '16 Exits.

So the Question is: Will 2020 have the same or rougly the same Electorate as it did in '16? If YES Biden wins big, if it's a younger Electorate we will have a much tighter Race.

Sanders need to drive young People or middle aged Voters to the Polls.

[2016]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

SC 2016 EXIT POLL per CNN
17-24: 7 %
25-29: 8 %
30-39: 13 %
40-49: 16 %
50-64: 38 %
65+: 19 %
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/SC/Dem

If you combine 50-64 and 65+ you got 57 % of the Electorate being 50 years and older so it's not unreasonable.

Clemson has clearly been operating the their Model based on the '16 Exits.

So the Question is: Will 2020 have the same or rougly the same Electorate as it did in '16? If YES Biden wins big, if it's a younger Electorate we will have a much tighter Race.

Sanders need to drive young People or middle aged Voters to the Polls.

This poll shows 64% 55+ while the 2016 exits show 57% 50+, so that's no small discrepancy. I would say the other major thing about the age of the poll is only 3% are 25 and under (which is undoubtedly going to be Bernie's strongest group).

Yep, the whole Poll seems a bit fishy. While Biden is well liked in the African American Community he ain't as liked as Clinton or Obama.

[2016]

65% female also seems pretty high.

That doesn’t seem too unreasonable for the Deep South tbf (largely because of ex-felon disenfranchisement)

But they have Young Voters only at 3 % when it was 7 % in 2016 and Clinton having a lot of momentum by winning the Nevada Caucuses.